Posted on 09/22/2003 7:28:24 AM PDT by tallhappy
Real Clear Politics elegantly presents all the polls concerning the California Recall election at this link
It seems that just about everyone pushing Schwarzenegger as the best chance for Republicans also feel McClintock would be preferable if he had a chance to win. McClintock is thought to most reflect their values and positions on issues. But Tom cant win.
A simple perusal of the poll numbers, though, belies this conventional wisdom. Do the math. If only 60% of Schwarzenegger supports decided to vote for McClintock, McClintock take the lead.
Some examples:
The vilified LA Times Poll:
Schwarzenegger - 25
Bustamante - 30
McClintock - 18
With a switch of 60% Schwarzenegger to McClintock, McClintock is at 33 and wins by 3.
In polls with Schwarzenegger polling higher the effect is stronger, e.g. SurveyUSA.
Schwarzenegger - 39
Bustamante - 29
McClintock - 16
McClintock at 39.4, wins by more than 10.
Even the ureleased newst Field poll with Bustamante higher than Schwarzenegger plays out the same:
Schwarzenegger - 26
Bustamante - 28
McClintock - 14
McClintock at 29.6 with the silent 60 switch, over the top by 1.6%.
The reason for this effect is that Bustamante support has stayed consistently low, only about 30%. This is lower than the Democrat candidate would generally poll in a general election. The dynamics of this unique recall are different. Many dems wont vote for a candidate for recall on principle. They feel the recall is wrong hence will only vote no and will not mark a replacement candidate. Others who normally would vote for a Democrat also may be voting for Huffington, Camejo or even Schwarzenegger. This effectively splits the left/liberal vote more than usual causing Bustamantes numbers to be low.
This dynamic allows a conservative a chance to win in this election compared to a regular general election where the numbers dont quite add up.
Conservatives are playing defense by voting for Schwarzenegger. Defense doesnt win. The offensive strategy is for conservatives to vote for McClintock in this election where a conservative actually could win. Conservatives shouldnt be scared off by the media drumbeat and conventional wisdom. It doesnt apply in this election. In a normal election a Democrat would pull near 50% and always beat the 40% conservative/Republican base. But this isnt a normal election and Bustamante isnt pulling the numbers.
Let the race play out as it is. Schwarzenegger doesnt have to pull out for this to work. In fact, if he did pull out this scenario wouldnt apply.
On election day there needs to be a silent surprise. If the polls on Bustamantes support are right, only 60% of Schwarzenegger supporters need to quietly punch the McClintock chad rather than Schwarzeneggers to shake the world with their silent surprise.
A successful campaign to persuade the voters that the Left was responsible for the death and destruction here in the USA because they prohibited timely response to Chinese aggression would be a powerful blow to the enemy.
There are other, more peaceful scenarios that lead to the same results. We need time and working together to accomplish any good, and delaying the crush by even one day is worth it. And electing Schwarzenegger can give us many decades of time.
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