Posted on 09/22/2003 7:28:24 AM PDT by tallhappy
Real Clear Politics elegantly presents all the polls concerning the California Recall election at this link
It seems that just about everyone pushing Schwarzenegger as the best chance for Republicans also feel McClintock would be preferable if he had a chance to win. McClintock is thought to most reflect their values and positions on issues. But “Tom can’t win.”
A simple perusal of the poll numbers, though, belies this conventional wisdom. Do the math. If only 60% of Schwarzenegger supports decided to vote for McClintock, McClintock take the lead.
Some examples:
The vilified LA Times Poll:
Schwarzenegger - 25
Bustamante - 30
McClintock - 18
With a switch of 60% Schwarzenegger to McClintock, McClintock is at 33 and wins by 3.
In polls with Schwarzenegger polling higher the effect is stronger, e.g. SurveyUSA.
Schwarzenegger - 39
Bustamante - 29
McClintock - 16
McClintock at 39.4, wins by more than 10.
Even the ureleased newst Field poll with Bustamante higher than Schwarzenegger plays out the same:
Schwarzenegger - 26
Bustamante - 28
McClintock - 14
McClintock at 29.6 with the silent 60 switch, over the top by 1.6%.
The reason for this effect is that Bustamante support has stayed consistently low, only about 30%. This is lower than the Democrat candidate would generally poll in a general election. The dynamics of this unique recall are different. Many dems won’t vote for a candidate for recall on principle. They feel the recall is wrong hence will only vote no and will not mark a replacement candidate. Others who normally would vote for a Democrat also may be voting for Huffington, Camejo or even Schwarzenegger. This effectively splits the left/liberal vote more than usual causing Bustamantes numbers to be low.
This dynamic allows a conservative a chance to win in this election compared to a regular general election where the numbers don’t quite add up.
Conservatives are playing defense by voting for Schwarzenegger. Defense doesn’t win. The offensive strategy is for conservatives to vote for McClintock in this election where a conservative actually could win. Conservatives shouldn’t be scared off by the media drumbeat and conventional wisdom. It doesn’t apply in this election. In a normal election a Democrat would pull near 50% and always beat the 40% conservative/Republican base. But this isn’t a normal election and Bustamante isn’t pulling the numbers.
Let the race play out as it is. Schwarzenegger doesn’t have to pull out for this to work. In fact, if he did pull out this scenario wouldn’t apply.
On election day there needs to be a silent surprise. If the polls on Bustamante’s support are right, only 60% of Schwarzenegger supporters need to quietly punch the McClintock chad rather than Schwarzenegger’s to shake the world with their silent surprise.
Grunt, can you find anyone else in your camp with the same view?
And McClintock supporters are accused of being illogical... ;-)
The September 9th California Freeper totals... McClintock 174 = 64% Arnold 89 = 33% The September 9th unknown states Freeper totals... McClintock 144 = 50% Arnold 143 = 50%
Can it be that Kalifornian Freepers are more fed up with the liberal agenda and are more offended by the idea that one can solve a budget crisis by earmarking $450 billion dollars of tax money for child care or $60 million dollars for hydrogen fueling stations? That's one possibility.
Another is that gun-owners in other states are much less sensitive to the disarmament campaign which has gone so far in Kalifornia and with which Arnold finds no objection. That is what motivates me.
...in contrast to being willing to listen, consult with, and gain the trust of his constituency in working towards reducing taxing and spending in state government?
Which should take precedence?
So where does that leave us?
68 grunt and Fair Opinion sing, "If that's liberalism, gimmee another heapin' helpin'!"
They came for Californians' guns, but the out-of-staters did not stand up against them.
"We don't live in California," they reasoned...
I find it very telling myself.
Wow, what's the total budget?
Source?
Kinda validates a feeling I've been having about this whole debate recently.
I think the Ninth Circus is on the run, as fast as they can go, away from the mistaken opinion of the three judge panel. Some believe that the reversing opinion will come within 24 hours. I am expecting that decision before sunset today.
This post is for people like you. If you represent 60% of those who now are voting for Schwarzenegger, then the votes are there if you all switch.
The silent switch.
I saw the same thing when Jesse Ventura was our governor. For the longest time, Freepers seemed to think he was a conservative. Up close and personal, we saw that he governed like a moderate Democrat from day one. In everything from his appointments to his policies to his vetoes.
But outside the state Jesse's celebrity factor proved blinding to otherwise politically astute people. I think you're seeing the same sort of thing with Arnold now.
DUH! ...
;-)
Yes he does, and so does Ronald Reagan but neither one of them will win this election.
That, is exactly my point.
Tom is the best man for the job, but he is not going to get it.
I disagree.
Constitutional law is an outgrowth of Natural Law. Human rights are unalienable, and the liberal voters will stop voting for unConstitutional measures and officials if the courts routinely strike down unConstitutional laws.
Also part of Natural Law are the laws of economics. "There ain't no such thing as a free lunch."
Liberals will continue to vote for free lunches until the lunches fail to appear. Without the "iron curtain" there is no Soviet Union. If Castro stopped killing or imprisoning, his regime in Cuba would fall.
Even Arnold will not be able deliver the free lunches that the liberals are expecting. He might deliver $450 million dollars in child care or $60 million in hydrogen fueling stations, but it will not be enough.
Kalifornia's troubles won't be solved until long after the unionized prison guards and the unionized school teachers are locked in battles over which will get benefits and pension money that doesn't exist.
No amount of support from me will get him elected. I've been down that road before.
All Mc Clintock can do now is help get Bustamonte elected and it seems like that is what's happening.
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