New California Field Poll leaked

Field Poll | September 20, 2003 | Field Poll

[carbon14]

Recall (yes)...53%

Bustamante.....28% Schwarzenegger.26% MadClintock....14%

For comparison (Field Poll August 18) Bustamante.....25% Schwarzenegger.22% MadClintock.....9% Simon...........8% Ueberroth.......5% Huffington......2%

[South40]

Now, thought...let's be realistic here. Are you saying Arnold is worse than davis? You're smarter than that. Arnold has a real chance of defeating the racist mexican. Tom doesn't. What I think won't change that.

BTW...your hero's on FOX right now.

[SteveH]

The captain of the luxury liner at sea is dying. Who do you want for the new captain, the liner's first mate, or someone off a two person rowboat?

[BlueNgold]

The facts simply aren't on your side.

The only FACTS that I have discussed are the prospects of the individuals in this race. And the facts are quite clearly 'on my side'. As I said earlier, simple math and freshman level statistics skills are all that are needed to analyze the data. If you realize that McC cannot win and choose to vote for him regardless then that is your choice, and your right as an American. If you believe that McC can win then you are either (a) hoping for a miracle, or (b) not taking an honest look at the numbers here in CA.

-Voting for McC believing that he can actually win is in my opinion, an uninformed choice.
-Voting for McC knowing he will lose, but choosing to make a political and ideological stand, is a choice that most of us have made at one point or another ... most Freepers at some point probably voted for the likes of Dole, Ford, or maybe even Buchanen. We KNEW we were backing a loss, but couldn't mark that spot for Carter, Clinton, and in some cases Bush. If that is your choice, God Bless You, but at least you are aware of what you are doing.

If it were a normal election, with a McC vs. C.B. choice, even in a sure loss I would support McC. However, this is different, and A.S. represents the wild card. While I may not really want A.S. that much - what I DO want is (R) appointees, and better judges, and an (R) with the veto pen in his hand when the (D) controlled legislature sends its next sham budget out....

[Seeking the truth]

Didn't just a small percentage of the members of the forum participate in the poll? And many of us who did participate aren't Californians!

How small is small? :)

I've seen some of the Ahnold/McClintock polls in the 1,200 - 1,500 response range. This is in a universe of 110,000+ registered freepers.

The FR polls are sometimes on my screen, sometimes not. they are also "pulled" for a new poll at irregular intervals.

Remember, nationwide, so-called "scientific polls, you know, those that are often so wrong (insert laugh here!) frequently poll 400-500 people in our country, with a population of 285,000,000+.

Polls are polls - a snapshot in time.

One last point re: FR polls. It is important to remember that out of those 110,000+ registered freepers, only about 2,500 - 3,500 post every day - and most of us are the same people every day. The vast majority lurk and thusly, never vote on FR polls.

[Eva]

Just because they call themselves liberals, does not make it so. Would you expect them to call themselves Marxists?
Don't aid and abett their deceit by making the same intentional mis-statement. Liberal is by far too nice a label for a leftist.

[Dave S]

The convention poll showed Tom had half the Republican vote. And comparing this poll with the one done by the same people earlier shows McClintock going from 9 to 14 percent.

Arnold won the straw poll at the convention big time. Your poll is the one where Bob Mulholland voted.

There have already been two Field polls. In the one reported around Sept 10, McClintock had 14%. He now holds 14%. That means he hasnt gained since Ueberroth left the race. So much for the truth.

[=Intervention=]

"Tom doesn't."

Lack of vision, and accepting liberal-parsed reality once again. It's like saying, "Well I suppose we'll have to live with the Stamp Act after all, guys." Such statements now serve to identify liberals and so-called moderates!

[tallhappy]

Maybe true. But the right has not won the Republicans many state wide victories since Dukmejian

Wilson was considered very right wing because of his law and order advocacy and pro-legal status policies.

[Rabid Dog]

Check your freepmail!

[Seeking the truth]

Interest theory but I thought Ahnold was the "anti-politician", right?

My theory is that the public, or at least a sizable portion of it, perceives him as a very 58XXL emtpy suit!

In German, it is referred to as "eine flasche"

[EllaMinnow]

A Democrat Primary Field Poll of California voters released today - make sure you read the last line.
___________________________________________________
A Field Poll of registered Democratic voters released this morning says 23 percent would vote for Dean in the state's March presidential primary. That's up from 14 percent in July.

Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman followed with 15 percent, and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry placed third with 11 percent.

The rest of the field registered just single digits in the survey, with former House Democratic leader Dick Gephardt getting eight percent support; former Illinois Sen. Carol Moseley Braun, four percent; civil rights leader Al Sharpton, three percent; and senators John Edwards and Bob Graham and Representative Dennis Kucinich all with one percent. Some 29 percent of registered Democrats were undecided.

The poll also found that each of the top Democrats in the field - Dean, Lieberman, Kerry and Gephardt - placed even with President Bush in head-to-head matchups among registered voters.

Bush received between 43 and 45 percent of the vote in each matchup, with each Democrat registering 40 to 45 percent support.

http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20030917/APN/309170694

[tallhappy]

I agree McClintock should bow out. Because it will not allow him to be blamed when Schwarzenegger still loses.

Repubs blew it again.

[tallhappy]

When did A.S. say that he would not take any money? He never swore to run on his own $$

Actually, that is the first thing he said in his talk after the Tonight show taping. He said he didn't need to take any money because he has plenty of his own.

[=Intervention=]

"appointees, and better judges, and an (R) with the veto pen in his hand when the (D) controlled legislature sends its next sham budget out...."

You'll get liberal judges.

You'll get a liberal budget, because Arnie and the Democrats are ideological soul mates.

The great Republican or conservative gains you are expecting I honestly can't see materializing. Why would they? Birds of a feather flock together, right? Remember Riordian? He had contributed big $$$ to Democrats very recently. That didn't stop him from being the party annointed favorite. Do you really think that Arnold won't play "kiss and make up" with all his liberal friends once he is governor?

[BlueNgold]

Also, remember, your premise is that McClintock has no chance of winning and you have based this on all the polls that you have read, which means you believe those polls but not the one on FR.

Where to start?? ....
First off, yes, a number of different reasonably reliable polls indicate similar numbers for all 3 candidates (Not a single source poll with questionable methods such as the LA Times). Based on that, including the detailed breakouts of the support for each candidate (by party, sex, ethnicity etc.) and the time remaining, I conclude that McC cannot make up sufficient ground to win this race.

The FR poll is not neither a cross section of CA voters en total, nor is it a cross section of CA Republicans, nor is it scientific in nature, so I do not believe that the FR poll offers any evidence of how CA voters will choose on Oct 7th, and THAT is the poll we are trying to predict.

[BonnieJ]

We've been seeing Arnold in interviews for years! It's not a new thing to see him on these programs, being interviewed. We're not all just being introduced to him, like a Wesley Clark or Howard Dean. Or Tom McClintock. A lot of the undecideds will most likely vote for him. It's not an easy leap...seeing him in Terminator 3 in July and then voting for him in October. But he gradually is changing some perceptions. He did a very good job with Larry King. He has ideas and convictions. And some voters are simply looking for leadership, knowing others will do much of the more detailed work. That is what effective leaders often do, anyway...they delegate and inspire!

[tallhappy]

McClintock could be elected, clearly, in this environment

Yes. A conservative Republican could have won in this environment. A conservative could have beaten Davis in 2002 but a horrible candidate, Simon, was chosen. And now the same people who supported Simon are now saying McClintock can't win, only Schwarzenegger can win. But they were wrong about Simon.

Schwarzenegger is the loose cannon.

[SteveH]

I agree McClintock should bow out. Because it will not allow him to be blamed when Schwarzenegger still loses.

Repubs blew it again.

[sigh...]

[tallhappy]

Yes. Sigh.

Flabbergast.

[Gone_Postal]

For those of us here in California, I would like to personally thank both Tom and Arnold for dividing the Republicans and giving us another 4 years of socialist spending sprees, high taxes, etc.

Didn't Tom Arnold play in the movie True Lies with Schwarzenegger

Look I just saw the name in the sentence and thought it was funny