Analysts: Tape suggests bin Laden hurt or dead

Knight Ridder ^ | 09/19/03 | JOHN WALCOTT

[Pokey78]

WASHINGTON -- After examining new video and audio tapes of Osama bin Laden that were broadcast last week, U.S. intelligence analysts have concluded that the fugitive al-Qaida leader is probably ill or injured and could be incapacitated or even dead.

Three administration officials, all speaking on the condition of anonymity because intelligence matters are classified, said the videotape, which showed bin Laden hiking in the mountains, could have been made up to two years ago and that an audio track of bin Laden speaking was recorded separately, also some time ago, and overlaid on the video. The only recent recording was a second audio track, recorded by bin Laden's top lieutenant, Ayman al Zawahri.

The two audio tracks, one of bin Laden and one of Zawahri, were recorded in different locations and are of very different technical quality, said one intelligence official, suggesting that the two top al-Qaida leaders are no longer together after years of being virtually inseparable.

The officials all cautioned that it's impossible to draw any firm conclusions from the tapes, but they said the new material has strengthened the belief that bin Laden is ailing and that Zawahri may now be running al-Qaida or preparing to succeed a weakened bin Laden.

"I think there's a pretty broad consensus that bin Laden's probably alive but not well," said one senior official.

Some analysts have offered alternative explanations for the old tapes, including one holding that bin Laden may be healthy but so worried about his security that he's unwilling to allow anyone near him with an audio or video tape recorder.

One of the officials noted that the Israelis have killed some Palestinian militants with cell phones rigged with bombs, and that al-Qaida is believed to have assassinated Afghan opposition leader Ahmad Shah Mahsoud with a bomb planted in a video camera the weekend before the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on New York and Washington.

Other intelligence analysts believe the tapes may indicate that Zawahri, an Egyptian doctor who became bin Laden's top aide when his Egyptian Islamic Jihad merged with bin Laden's al-Qaida, may be positioning himself to take an even more prominent role in the terrorist organization, or even to replace bin Laden as its leader. However, one analyst said, Zawahri "probably wouldn't be stepping up if bin Laden weren't down."

The officials said a takeover of al-Qaida by Zawahri wouldn't have much effect on the organization because bin Laden and his top aide have long worked closely to drive the United States out of the Middle East and to topple regimes in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere in the Muslim world that they consider corrupt and dependent on the West.

There has long been speculation that bin Laden may be ill, wounded or both. Pakistani officials have claimed that the fugitive Saudi's kidneys are failing and that he requires dialysis. Some U.S. intelligence officials think he may have been wounded, perhaps in one arm, as he fled from attacking American and Afghan forces in December 2001 in the mountainous Tora Bora region near the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.

The last confirmed contact with bin Laden occurred just before the battle in Tora Bora, when he was heard on the radio exhorting his men, but intelligence analysts believe he, and probably Zawahri, are still hiding in the remote tribal areas along the border.

[mhking]

Elvis has left the building...

Just damn.

If you want on the new list, FReepmail me. This IS a high-volume PING list...

[Fred Mertz]

OBL has been dead for nearly two years.

[ConservativeMan55]

Pork Anyone?

Pork is meat derived from hogs. Wild hogs were domesticated during the Stone Age, about 8,000 years ago, and were imported to the New World in the 1500s by early explorers. Since hogs flourish on a diet of corn, most hog farms in the United States are located in the corn belt of the Midwest. Only a third of the pork produced each year is eaten fresh. Most pork is smoked, cured, or processed. Pork is available as chops, roasts, spareribs, ham, bacon, Canadian bacon (low-fat bacon resembling ham), sausage, and a wide variety of luncheon meats, including liverwurst.

[cubreporter]

We've said that all along and we believe it to be true! OBL is gone and good riddance.

[Brian S]

all speaking on the condition of anonymity ...

End of article!

That was fun. Now I understand why I read "that" daily on articles I post without named sources. ;)

[WOSG]

It would be nice to prove that ...

[Libertarianize the GOP]

bump

[Eric in the Ozarks]

You've left out an entire catagory:
The worldwide pork rind industry. Pork rinds, and their food group counsins are leading the way to better enjoyment of pork products everywhere.
Recently, food scientists have developed microwave pork rinds which, like microwave popcorn, can expand 25 times their initial size.

[Timesink]

Some analysts have offered alternative explanations for the old tapes...

Translation: Nobody knows jack sh*t and they're all just talking out their asses. If any of the anonymously quoted "experts" even exist in the first place.

[concerned about politics]

Bin Ladin himself has not been around for a while. Just old stuff. He's dead, Jim.

[omegatoo]

Don't forget the pickled pig lips(and feet) and chitlins

But I wouldn't expect someone from way up north there in Oklahoma to remember those ;^D
O2

[concerned about politics]

But I wouldn't expect someone from way up north there in Oklahoma to remember those ;^D

Awwww. My grandmother used to eat those. ACK!
It used to gross me out.

[Mike Darancette]

I believe that Usama's problems began and maybe ended at Tora Bora on 12/11/01.

[new cruelty]

A certain convocation of politic worms are e'en at him.

[McGavin999]

He's dead.

[Allan]

U.S. intelligence analysts have concluded
that the fugitive al-Qaida leader is probably ill or injured
and could be incapacitated or even dead.

How much did they get paid for that amazing analysis?
How do I get a job as a U.S. intelligence analyst?
I could have announced the same thing a year ago without listening to any tapes.

[nuconvert]

I've never heard of that before, never seen that before, and never want to see it again.

It's something nightmares are made of.......

[concerned about politics]

I've never heard of that before, never seen that before, and never want to see it again.

It's something nightmares are made of.......

It looks like a jar of pickled people.