Posted on 09/17/2003 10:03:07 PM PDT by Diddle E. Squat
Bill White leads Orlando Sanchez and Sylvester Turner in what is shaping up to be a three-man race for mayor of Houston, according to a Houston Chronicle/KHOU-TV poll.
White, the Houston businessman who has spent more than $600,000 of his own money to help dominate early advertising, has support from 25 percent of likely voters.
Sanchez, with 20 percent, and Turner, with 19 percent, are within striking distance as both candidates prepare to ratchet up their own campaigns in a race most believe will be decided in a runoff.
A distant fourth is Michael Berry with 7 percent.
"This election is a long way from over," said pollster Richard Murray, a political science professor at the University of Houston. "Right now, it looks like any two of three candidates will be in the runoff."
If no candidate receives a majority of the vote Nov. 4, which is likely with such a large field, the top two finishers will meet in a runoff about a month later.
The candidates are vying to replace term-limited Mayor Lee Brown, who won a close runoff over Sanchez in 2001 to win his third and final two-year term.
Polling indicates that voters are ready for Brown's departure Jan. 2 because 52 percent disapprove of the job the mayor is doing. About 39 percent approve of Brown's performance.
The poll was conducted Sept. 10 through Tuesday by the University of Houston Center for Public Policy and Rice University's James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy.
The telephone poll of 605 registered city of Houston voters who told pollsters that they likely will vote has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Murray said that White's lead is largely the result of effective advertising he has done on television, radio and in mail-outs. The other candidates have largely stuck with less expensive radio and mail-outs.
As of the most recent campaign finance report June 30, White had raised $2.9 million, Sanchez $1.2 million, Turner $800,000 and Berry $564,000.
As a result of White's ability to outspend his opponents on early advertising, his favorability rating among voters is more than twice his negative rating. The three other major candidates' negative ratings are close to their favorables.
But Murray noted that White has not yet faced negative advertising from Sanchez and Turner.
Such advertising might be effective against White, Murray said, because one of three of his supporters say their backing is "not strong." Meanwhile, one in four Sanchez supporters say their support is not strong, while one in five Turner supporters say that about their candidate.
"Bill White has shown the benefit of getting your message out early, when no one else opposes it," Murray said.
Although city elections are officially nonpartisan, party politics have played an increasing role in recent years. And 58 percent of the poll respondents believe party affiliation should appear beside a mayoral candidate's name on the ballot.
White and Turner are Democrats, Sanchez and Berry are Republicans.
Sanchez leads among respondents who identified themselves as Republicans with 40 percent, while White gets 23 percent, Berry gets 14 percent and Turner gets 2 percent.
Turner leads among Democrats with 33 percent, followed by White with 28 percent, Sanchez with 10 percent and Berry with 4 percent.
The Sanchez and Turner campaigns both questioned the poll. Each said it had seen private polling indicating that its candidate was doing better.
Berry said the poll result largely reflects name recognition because the campaigns have yet to swing into high gear.
"The Michael Berry campaign did not expect to achieve high name-ID saturation by early September but we do expect that we will by early November," he said.
White said he has a lead in the race because he is focusing on all neighborhoods in Houston, not targeted ones.
Its still early.
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