Hurricane Isabel:Live Thread #2 "Force Ten Conditions In North Carolina And Further North"

NHC | 9-17-03 | My Favorite Headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 48

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2003

...Outer bands of Hurricane Isabel moving onshore...weather should gradually worsen...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.

All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...and north of Chincoteague to Sandy Hook New Jersey...including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal Potomac.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 31.9 north... longitude 73.9 west or about 250 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected prior to landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern North Carolina during the day Thursday. However...conditions will deteriorate over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading across the coastline.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts. A slight increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles. A buoy located west of the hurricane recently reported wind gusts to 74 mph and 32 foot waves.

An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels... along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers.

Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel.

There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia on Thursday.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.9 N... 73.9 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Avila

[Slip18]

WeatherBug.com wouldn't let me copy, but there's a whole lot of chirping going on there.

Here's the photo I got from Weather.com.

Dang, that's not copying for me, either. I will go to another location.

If I can't get it in here, go to Weather.com. Put in your zip code. It will bring you to an updated photo. The photos are at the bottom of the page.

Good luck!

[Woodstock]

Thank you. Keep me posted. We live right on the water at the top of the Bay.

[Howlin]

I think you're going to get a bird's eye view of Isabel tonight!

[meyer]

Fox News - Jeff Something-or-other: "The storm is taking my pants off now!"

[Howlin]

Isabel edges into eastern North Carolina
9/18/2003 11:15 A.M.
Betsy Abrams, Sr. Meteorologist, The Weather Channel

Isabel remains a category two hurricane as the eye wall moves over the Outer Banks. As the large eye moves northwestward across the Outer Banks between Cape Hatteras and Cape Lookout, the strong winds will rapidly diminish in the eye and then pick right up again once the eye passes by. Flash flood watches are posted from North Carolina to Pennsylvania. Storm surge is a major problem as well, considering high tide is around the time of landfall with water roughly two feet higher than it would be at low tide. A storm surge on the order of 8-12 feet is possible, and rainfall near 6 to 10 inches near landfall. A surge of 4-8 feet will likely extend up the East Coast a long way making this a big coastal flooding erosion event. Isabel should weaken quickly once inland and accelerate northwestward and then northward resulting in rainfall farther north of 5 inches or less. Waves will peak at 25 feet to possible 30 feet on the southeast coast of NC, with waves as high as 15-20 feet affecting VA, NJ, NY coasts the next 18-24 hours. PEOPLE SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM WATER! On the west end of Ocracoke Island, there has been a report of an 80 mph sustained wind with a gust to 98 mph. The automated reporting station at Frying Pan Shoals, NC has had sustained winds to 70 mph with gusts to 81 mph while Cape Lookout had a gust to 77 mph. So far, Cape Hatteras has had almost 2.75 inches of rain and wind gusts between 68 and 79 mph. Gusts have been as high as 69 mph at Elizabeth City and 64 mph at Morehead City.

[Slip18]

I just heard that. His pants were pulled up, then a wave got him. LOL!

[mykdsmom]

Don't remember who asked for info about New Bern but here is a link to a message board that has a person updating from that area. It's pretty interesting actually.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=14666&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0

MKM

[rwfromkansas]

The eye is on land (at least a good portion)

[Gabz]

I have already visited the local Repubbie party in Georgetwon Del and by my discussion with the Sussex county chair, the pubs are hopelessly in bed with the Dems.

Sussex county Democrats are by FAAAAAAAAAAR more conservative than the New Castle County Republicans. Take it from me. I spent 21 years involved in Delaware politics. When I got tired of being a reporter, I became a lobbyist. I was also on the Executive committee for one of the republican districts in Dover for 10 years.

This state really needs me.

I don't mean to disenchant you - but the bipartisan working of Delaware is historic in nature.

Get to know the people, you'll soon learn that I am correct about the Sussex Dems. The NCC Republicans are closer to the liberals of Maryland than the Sussex Dems will ever be.

The problem is the state is basically controlled by NCC because that is where the population base is. Once above the canal the northest liberal socialism is palpable. The conservatives of Lower Slower Delaware, on both sides of the aisle rarely have a chance.

southern Delaware is not the problem - northern Delaware is.

[Slip18]

Theo, check out Linda's post. Good luck! And thanks, Linda.

[xsmommy]

xsteen was laughing her head off at jeff goldblatt saying that!

[meyer]

I just heard that. His pants were pulled up, then a wave got him. LOL!

I saw that - I think FOX just scooped Jim Cantore.

[AppyPappy]

That's as of 9:45 AM

[VRWC_minion]

I figured out that the radar picture must be originating at or near Jacksonville and that the red stuff must be part of the effect of local radar.

[Slip18]

I'm glad your oldest is laughing. How are you doing there?

[Conservative4Ever]

Fox is breaking up now. Lost signals.

Red

[steveegg]

I think it is going almost due north now; and since I concentrated so much on the weather off OUR coast, I'll have to go see what is happening.

Last couple of radar images were showing just that.

[xsmommy]

fine, just raining so far. i am trying to figure out if i can teach xs2pup to go on the actual toilet....