Hurricane Isabel:Live Thread #2 "Force Ten Conditions In North Carolina And Further North"

NHC | 9-17-03 | My Favorite Headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 48

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2003

...Outer bands of Hurricane Isabel moving onshore...weather should gradually worsen...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.

All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...and north of Chincoteague to Sandy Hook New Jersey...including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal Potomac.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 31.9 north... longitude 73.9 west or about 250 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected prior to landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern North Carolina during the day Thursday. However...conditions will deteriorate over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading across the coastline.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts. A slight increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles. A buoy located west of the hurricane recently reported wind gusts to 74 mph and 32 foot waves.

An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels... along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers.

Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel.

There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia on Thursday.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.9 N... 73.9 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Avila

[steveegg]

Whats the red circles near Jacksonville mean on the pics ?

Hopefully just clutter.

[rwfromkansas]

Actually, if he was measuring wind speed, he was using an anemometer. :)

But yeah, swaying in 35 mph winds is a bit too much.

[VRWC_minion]

Jacksonvilll, NC ? The reason I ask is my son is stationed near there.

[Tiki_Bar]

Yeah, I got a call from her day before yesterday she was hoping her cellphone would hold out so she could call us.
No word yet.

She is a Navy recruiter by the way and has had a life time of experiences in her time there from two tours of duty in Saudi to an earthquake in Washington state and now a hurricane....she gets all the fun.

[Ima Lurker]

Also, you have to add the forward motion to the wind speed so 90 to 110 mph becomes 108 to 128 mph.

[cars for sale]

the ultimate worst would be to lose a Freeper...ya'll hang on now...serious,we need ya EVERY ONE

[COBOL2Java]

Oh, that Jacksonville. Sorry!

Prayers for your son. My grandson's father is at Camp Lejeune, which I believe is bearing the brunt of Isabel about now.

[NCjim]

They have 45 mph sustained winds with 54 mph gusts. Details here.

[Woodstock]

Wow, I just returned home to the Elk River at the top of the Chesapeake in Maryland. The wind gusts are amazing and the kids are still not yet home from school! It actually looks like the wind is oushing the water down-river and out of the Bay. The white-caps are huge for this far up-river. Very strange.

[Howlin]

And let's not forget it's getting ready to move over warmer water.

This could get ugly, fast.

[CollegeRepublican]

I have driven by the local GOP building in Georgetown numerous times on my way to go surfing.

Politics are such a mess in Delaware and Maryland. I guess that 85% of the land area in these states are occupied by conservatives, but the 15% is packed with liberals who outnumber the conservatives. Unfortunate.

[Fishtalk]

My sympathies for you having chosen to move to the people's republic of Delaware.

+++++

You have NO idea. This state is hopelessly outdated. The Repubs are in bed with the Dems. The Governor is a soccer Mom now systematically destroying the state. I am simply appalled by it all.

We wanted to live on the eastern shore and husband, originally from Massachusetts damn him to hell, REFUSED to move to Merryland again.

Our comprimise was to move up the street in Delaware but make no mistake, we are both very unhappy about the politicos in this state.

Myself intends to change all of this. I don't know how but I intend to be very much a part of this Delaware as it is now governed by local-yokel idiots that would not know leadership if it hit them in the face. Or else we've got smooth-talking, slick-haired Senators that prolly don't even know where Sussex County is.

The repub party meets at Deltech college, second Tuesday of every month. I intend to be there.

[Howlin]

That is exactly what is going to happen.

[VRWC_minion]

That is where my son is. He called us yesterday to tell us he would be safely snug in his bunk ... but I could tell he was nervous even if he is a Marine.

[Woodstock]

Do you think it will come up the Chesapeake or stay on the predicted track?

[Howlin]

It could be a patch of high winds.

They are on the west of the eye. Look at the stories on TV about Atlantic Beach and realize they're further west than that.

[VRWC_minion]

Thanks for that link.

[EternalVigilance]

Now I see why my sister in western Iowa said she had lightning and thunder this morning, too..

[NCjim]

Well, I got back OK. I saw a downed power line as well as a couple of others arcing against street lamps with showers of sparks. Quite exciting but even more exciting to be safely back inside! The worst in Raleigh is supposed to be from 3:00 to 6:00.

[Howlin]

I think it is going almost due north now; and since I concentrated so much on the weather off OUR coast, I'll have to go see what is happening.

But there is a good chance of that since you are on the east side of the eye. Stay alert.