Hurricane Isabel:Live Thread #2 "Force Ten Conditions In North Carolina And Further North"

NHC | 9-17-03 | My Favorite Headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 48

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2003

...Outer bands of Hurricane Isabel moving onshore...weather should gradually worsen...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.

All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...and north of Chincoteague to Sandy Hook New Jersey...including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal Potomac.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 31.9 north... longitude 73.9 west or about 250 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected prior to landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern North Carolina during the day Thursday. However...conditions will deteriorate over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading across the coastline.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts. A slight increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles. A buoy located west of the hurricane recently reported wind gusts to 74 mph and 32 foot waves.

An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels... along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers.

Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel.

There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia on Thursday.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.9 N... 73.9 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Avila

[Overtaxed]

LOL!

[U S Army EOD]

All flights have been canceled and the ducks are grounded.

[ShakeNJake]

Wow. Are you located in that area?

I just got off the phone with my Mom and brother in Portsmouth. They still have power but have seen rain and gusts up to 50 mph. They have potable water, food, batteries, flashlights, radio and candles if their power goes out. My niece in Chesapeake is without power. And, my Mom had just talked to my sister at Sentarra-Norfolk and they were on generators.

My brother did go over to my Mom's house to stay with her so she isn't alone, thank goodness. If he hadn't been there with her, he would have been my next phone call to tell him to get his butt over there!

Stay safe!

[Slip18]

I don't know that stadium, but the wind is blowing left to right at 13 mph.

[CollegeRepublican]

Northeast???? Do you mean Northwest??

[Howlin]

Issued at: 12:52 PM EDT 9/18/03 (gateway).


Large eye of isabel coming ashore just south of ocracoke island,

A hurricane warning remains in effect from cape fear north carolina to chincoteague virginia, including pamlico and albemarle sounds, and the chesapeake bay south of smith point.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect north of chincoteague to moriches inlet new york, including delaware bay. A tropical storm warning remains in effect south of cape fear to south santee river south carolina, for the chesapeake bay from smith point northward, and for the tidal potomac.

At 1 pm edt, 1700z, the center of hurricane isabel was located near latitude 34.9 north, longitude 76.1 west or about 40 miles southwest of cape hatteras north carolina. This position is also about 30 miles northeast of cape lookout north carolina, and very near ocracoke island on the north carolina outer banks.

Isabel has a very large eye, and winds within the eye will diminish, before increasing rapidly as the back edge of the eye passes by. People are strongly cautioned not to venture out during the eye passage unless absolutely necessary.

Isabel is moving toward the northwest near 18 mph and this motion is expected to continue today with a turn to the north-northwest overnight. On the forecast track, the center of isabel is expected to continue moving inland over eastern north carolina and southeastern virginia over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph with higher gusts. Although isabel will weaken as it moves inland, unusually strong winds, with gusts to hurricane force, may be experienced far inland over the elevated terrain of northern virginia and maryland, as well as on high-rise buildings and other structures.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 345 miles.

A wind gust to 105 mph was recently reported at ocracoke island on the outer banks. Sustained winds to 80 mph have also been reported at ocracoke. Cape hatteras is reporting sustained winds of 79 mph and gusts to 98 mph.

The most recent minimum central pressure reported by a hurricane hunter aircraft was 957 mb, 28.26 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels, along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves, is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in chesapeake bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers. A storm surge of 5 to 6 feet was reported at cape hatteras, and ham radio operators report a surge of 5 to 6 feet at new bern north carolina on the neuse river.

Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches, with locally higher amounts, are likely in association with isabel.

There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern north carolina, eastern virginia, and southeastern maryland today.

Repeating the 1 pm edt position,, 34.9 n, 76.1 w. Movement toward, northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds, 100 mph. Minimum central pressure, 957 mb.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local weather office, and statements from local emergency management officials.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 3 pm edt followed by the next complete advisory at 5 pm edt.

[PBRSTREETGANG]

Northeast? Not good news for me if true.

[Howlin]

No, I'm in Raleigh. And they're getting worse than we are!

[Howlin]

I copied it off the terror ticker.

[Slip18]

It's moving faster than expected. Hopefully, it will come and go quickly. But the wind velocity is scary.

Everyone take care out there.

High tide in NC?

[Neenah]

Anyone catch AL ROKER this morning?

7:01 a.m. First thing up is Al out on the beach. Dressed to the nines in wind parka, bobbing and weaving.!! It is 7 a.m. and the storm is 5 hours away !!

He is purposely MAKING his body sway and swerve..you can tell. In his hand is a wind barometer..as he is FIGHTING to maintain his balance, he TRIES to lift his arm..haha...and raise the barometer into the air..(it is not even raining yet) and huffs out in choppy breath.." LET ME TRY TO READ THE WIND NOW, KATIE...IT IS.........35 MILES PER HOUR !!!!!

I fell down laughing.35 miles per hour, and he is bobbing and weaving !! Katie says " Hang on Al, you are so thin you might get blown away ! "

Sorry, the theatrics are something else here. All due respect to all of you that are in this NOW. Stay safe. and...

Al? GO HOME !

[amom]

Lurken and holding my breath on this one.

Y'all stay safe ya hear?

[Howlin]

Yes, and it will be high tide at Virginia Beach.

They are going to get CREAMED......if it goes over that water and even strengthens a little bit, it's going to be a LONG afternoon!

[steveegg]

Too bad nobody took Ocracoke in the pool.

[Vinnie]

FNC just had live pics of Atlantic Bch
pier. Rollers up to the walk. Huge seas.

[Slip18]

344,000 without electricity in VA. Per Jeff Goldblatt FOX News.

[Howlin]

Thanks!

[ShakeNJake]

My company has sites in Raleigh and Charlotte. We have a major call center in Charlotte so early this week, we transitioned some stuff here to Dallas. Some of our call center guys flew out of Charlotte this morning to Dallas.

I work for Trammell Crow Company.

[First_Salute]

This morning, the edge of the storm, as seen on the NHS website's pic's provided by satellite, had reached here. Winds are very light and alternating between north and south. It's 78 F and the humidity is mild.

The intriguing thing, is that rarely do we see clouds formed with Atlantic Ocean moisture, such as these.

It's kind of like a pleasant day off Yorktown, VA.

We used to practice handling the boats in the wake of large ships; we'd surf their wakes, in order to get used to anticipating changes and make adjustments.

The boats were single screw, diesel, maybe 31 ft. long. You had to be ahead of the direction that the boat might go; the steering was not the greatest. Of course, there were too many chiefs all at the helm.

I liked the Chesapeake Bay; interesting place.

In Michigan, on Lake Huron, we had a 40-footer, single screw. It was the older design, and I loved it; it rode well.

My last day of active duty rescue work, I was awakened at 5 and told to get ready. A diabetic was lost at sea, and we had to go get him.

Wx was lousy. 30+mph from NNW. 62 F. Overcast and storms. Lake Huron was 12 ft. "chop." Swells 8 ft.

A previous night, I had watched from the station tower as ships moving up Lake Huron, were struck by lightning; they turned blue.

When lightning struck the surface of the lake, the lightning would radiate outward just under the surface, like spokes on a bike wheel.

So this one morning, I was a little wary, shakey, and hungry.

As soon as we left port, our radio quit. The chief decided to stay at sea. Our gyro quit. The chief decided to stay at sea.

After one turn at the helm, I left the comfort of the cabin.

I had on a wetsuit and went back to the towing bit, which was the center of moment. It was the most stable part of the show. From there, I watched the bow of the boat rise and fall 12 ft. about every 5 to 8 seconds. This went on for 5 hours.

The crew, in the heated cabin, kept looking back at me, wondering how I was faring. I was fine. Warm in the suit and protecting some donuts.

They, on the other hand, were sick as dogs; they were dry, but that was all.

Eventually, somebody came back and asked if I might know the way home. We had traveled from the Saginaw Bay to the area north of Lake St. Clair --- no diabetic.

We would search, heading back.

The storm slackened. The sun briefly came through.

I looked over the chart and matched up what I thought might be a couple lighthouses or radio towers --- we were out ten miles. I picked a direction and said, "Go here." X

Good guess. Much, much better than my wondering if the current hurricane might have ambitions for Long Island.

[amom]

You bet'cha!