Hurricane Isabel:Live Thread #2 "Force Ten Conditions In North Carolina And Further North"

NHC | 9-17-03 | My Favorite Headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 48

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2003

...Outer bands of Hurricane Isabel moving onshore...weather should gradually worsen...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.

All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...and north of Chincoteague to Sandy Hook New Jersey...including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal Potomac.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 31.9 north... longitude 73.9 west or about 250 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected prior to landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern North Carolina during the day Thursday. However...conditions will deteriorate over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading across the coastline.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts. A slight increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles. A buoy located west of the hurricane recently reported wind gusts to 74 mph and 32 foot waves.

An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels... along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers.

Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel.

There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia on Thursday.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.9 N... 73.9 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Avila

[NCjim]

In all the years I lived in Durm...

Your pronunciation brings back memories of my days as a student at NCSU. A friend in the dorm was from Durham - and everyone would ask him:

Where 'ya from, Ben?

Durm

How long 'ya lived there?

All muh lif... (can't type it like he said it) :-)

[Gabz]

Thanks for the updates. I'm FOX challenged at the moment as my daughter has taken over my TV :-(

[Howlin]

Yes! We found her one Sunday, running. I found the owner, who was out of town, and I just kept her while she was gone. When she got back, she asked me if I wanted her and I took her -- mainly because she was in such HORRIBLE shape I didn't think the lady was taking good care of her.

A Yorkie. And you cannot believe how much $$$ I have spent on this "free" dog. Teeth, etc.! And she's SO needy....never had a Yorkie before....she's sitting on my shoulder right now!

[meowmeow]

Morning all from Alexandria, VA! Government is closed so I got to get up as soon as it was light and work on the drainage ditch I've been digging for the last 3 days to keep the water from backing up in the side yard (I like to dig so DH lets me!) My one neighbor still has a bunch of crap in his yard - his dirt bike, bird feeders, patio stuff. He was out there having a smoke and didn't put anything away! We're as ready as we can be. It's getting breezy. Prayers for safety for everyone in Izzy's path, even those stupid reporters on the beach.

[Howlin]

Has somebody mentioned tornado watches for you?

Storm will be over Roanoke Rapids by 8 PM. Winds till then.

[pgkdan]

Get this, one of my town's Reporterettes is on location at VA beach. She keeps hyping over and over, "We're expecting a 20-30' storm surge"

WOW! That may have been the case with Sunday's Isabel, but not today's. 5-11 ft is more like it. Someone needs to bring that little girl up to date.

[Doohickey]

Most of us guys can't stand small dogs, and I'm no exception - except when it comes to Yorkies. Small dogs with big dog 'tudes! If I were to get a dustmop, it'd definately be a Yorkie.

[holdmuhbeer]

Yeah i get a kick out of hearing the guy on the toyota commercials say 'toyota of dum'

[xsmommy]

i love terriers! had to get rid of my JRT, bc he was biting, now have my little cavalier king charles spaniel, who is going to protect the household in xshub's absence ; )

[txhurl]

works at the White House and they DO look at FR every single day!

Looks at?

I thought FR gave the admin. their marching orders, daily!

[iceskater]

Oh-oh. That's definitely not a good omen.

I just heard on the radio that 144,000 customers in eastern Va. are out of power already!

[Howlin]

We've always have shih tzus, who definitely have an attitude. This Yorkie only weighs four pounds; she looks like a little MinPin. Pencil legs! (She needs cartoon "exit" movie when she runs!)

[pgkdan]

Good Morning Sitetest. We're pretty relieved here too. On Sunday I called my brother in law in Chriatiansburg and told him that if Isabel looked as bad on Wednesday morning as it did Sunday he'd have company Wednesday afternoon.

My Council has pulled out the phone tree, we've touched base with each other and will do so again after the storm subsides to make sure we know where everyone is and that we're all healthy.

[holdmuhbeer]

This Yorkie only weighs four pounds

I used to have one that weighed 15 pounds, talk about mean as a snake, he'd get in fights with our Great Dane.

[Gabz]

We've got a tornado watch in effect until 8pm - all the way to the MD/DE line.

[Howlin]

Power out in Zebulon.

Four people rescued by the Coast Guard in Little Washington -- out trying to secure a large sailboat. (Why didn't they do that yesterday???)

[iceskater]

Has somebody mentioned tornado watches for you?

Is it true that tornadoes tend to happen northeast of the eye? They're projecting the center of the storm to pass west of Richmond so I'm a little concerned about that. No mention of tornado warnings that I've heard here yet.

[AppyPappy]

On Sunday I called my brother in law in Christiansburg

Good choice. It's really nice up here

[xsmommy]

Sam Donaldson's parting words on his radio show on WMAL, was what will we do with the DOGS? should we let them out to be blown away? LOL!! he said these practical considerations are some of the hardest!

i have to say, i have been thinking of that myself. i am telling the kids to take him out as often as possible while we can!

[pgkdan]

15 to 20 mph wind is normal.

That's the point. 15-20 mph is no big deal anywhere. But the ground is so saturated from all the rain that's fallen this year that the tree went down in a breeze. When the winds get up to hurricane force it's going to be rough.

Another note about the winds...50 mph gusts are powerful, but not all that rare. A 50 mph sustained wind ia an altogether different beast. And 74-100 mph sustained winds are even more so.