Hurricane Isabel:Live Thread #2 "Force Ten Conditions In North Carolina And Further North"

NHC | 9-17-03 | My Favorite Headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 48

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2003

...Outer bands of Hurricane Isabel moving onshore...weather should gradually worsen...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.

All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...and north of Chincoteague to Sandy Hook New Jersey...including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal Potomac.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 31.9 north... longitude 73.9 west or about 250 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected prior to landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern North Carolina during the day Thursday. However...conditions will deteriorate over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading across the coastline.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts. A slight increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles. A buoy located west of the hurricane recently reported wind gusts to 74 mph and 32 foot waves.

An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels... along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers.

Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel.

There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia on Thursday.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.9 N... 73.9 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Avila

[My Favorite Headache]

[My Favorite Headache]

Starting new thread because thread #1 was being weighed down...I am on broadband it was even slowing.

[mykdsmom]

Thanks MFH....it appears you have the most popular thread of the day.

MKM

[Unknown Freeper]

Hi, MFH, thanks for all you do here. Hope you're feeling better.

Everyone, be safe. Thursday will be a long day.

[Ramius]

So what? We've got volcanoes up here in Washington. Hurrincanes are NOTHING by comparison!!!

[Just kidding... really... honest...] :-)

[MEG33]

Reporting for duty!

[deport]

bttt

[dennis1x]

good news from NHC....11pm discussion:

Isabel lacks a well-defined inner core and deep convection is
minimal at this time. In fact...satellite intensity estimates
suggest that maximum winds are on the order of 75 to 80 knots.
Data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that maximum flight-level
winds are about 100 knots so far on this mission...with the central
pressure unchanged. Assuming that the reconnaissance plane has not
sampled the entire circulation...the initial intensity is kept
generously at 90 knots. If the plane does not find higher winds
soon...it may be necessary to decrease the intensity in the next
advisory. On the other hand...since the outflow is excellent and
the hurricane has about 12 hours over warm waters...there is still
a chance that some re-intensification may occur just before
landfall.

Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Isabel is moving
about 330 degrees at 11 knots. The steering pattern calls for
a general north-northwestward to northwestward track as the high
builds to the northeast of the tropical cyclone. This motion would
bring the center of the hurricane to the coast of North Carolina
during the day on Thursday. There is confidence in the official
forecast since the more reliable track models are highly clustered
within 40 nautical miles near landfall. However...one should not
focus on a precise landfall point since Isabel is a large hurricane
with damaging winds extending well away from the center.

Once Isabel moves inland...it should gradually become extratropical
and then become absorbed by a larger cyclone in 3 or 4 days.

Forecaster Avila/Pasch

[abner]

Checking in....

[Ramius]

Hurrincanes? Yikes...

[note to self: preview, preview, preview].

[Sam Cree]

...HURRICANE ISABEL CONTINUES TO HEAD TOWARD EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: DARE...CARTERET...HYDE...PAMLICO...CRAVEN...
BEAUFORT...TYRRELL...WASHINGTON...ONSLOW...GREENE...LENOIR...DUPLIN..
.JONES...MARTIN...AND PITT COUNTIES.

...WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA TO
CHICOTEAGUE VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE INLAND COUNTIES OF DUPLIN...GREENE...JONES...
LENOIR...MARTIN AND PITT.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 PM THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED ABOUT 280
MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. ISABEL WAS MOVING NORTH
NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 105 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAKING ISABEL A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

THE CENTER OF ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT
EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE INLAND JUST WEST OF ALBEMARLE
SOUND AND INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA THURSDAY NIGHT.

...WIND INFORMATION...
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE. BY SUNRISE TOMORROW
WINDS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 50 MPH ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN ALONG THE COAST
AROUND MID MORNING. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE CENTER OF
ISABEL. THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 MPH. STRONG WINDS WILL
SPREAD INLAND ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE MORNING HOURS
AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AROUND SUNSET.

...OVERWASH ON HIGHWAY 12...
OCEAN OVERWASH IS LIKELY ON HIGHWAY 12 ON THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY AROUND HIGH TIDE WHICH WILL OCCUR AROUND 1 AM. MAJOR
OCEAN OVERWASH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AS HURRICANE
ISABEL MAKES LANDFALL NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY THURSDAY...
WHICH OCCURS AROUND 130 PM. BATTERING WAVES OF 10 TO 15 FEET ON TOP
OF THE 6 TO 8 FEET OF STORM SURGE WILL RESULT IN MAJOR OCEAN
OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION.

[Miss Marple]

Checking in for more information!

[steveegg]

Checking in (and then out for the night).

[abner]

Ellis Hennican on O'Reilly... I feel it is imperative for me to say that, "Ellis eats paste!"

[Corin Stormhands]

At least we know how to spell volcanose...

[My Favorite Headache]

Kill Devil-N.C.Avalon Pier

This will update every 2 minutes...it usually is every minute but the server is lagging.

[Gabz]

Thanks much!!!!

[Howlin]

Maybe since tomorrow is landfall, we should ask everybody to just LINK????

[steveegg]

Maybe since tomorrow is landfall, we should ask everybody to just LINK????

Sounds like an idea.

[amom]

Thanks, this is what I was looking for!