Posted on 09/17/2003 8:14:30 PM PDT by My Favorite Headache
Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 48
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2003
...Outer bands of Hurricane Isabel moving onshore...weather should gradually worsen...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.
All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...and north of Chincoteague to Sandy Hook New Jersey...including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal Potomac.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 31.9 north... longitude 73.9 west or about 250 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected prior to landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern North Carolina during the day Thursday. However...conditions will deteriorate over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading across the coastline.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts. A slight increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles. A buoy located west of the hurricane recently reported wind gusts to 74 mph and 32 foot waves.
An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels... along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers.
Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel.
There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia on Thursday.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.9 N... 73.9 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.
Forecaster Avila
Meanwhile, a local guy on FoxNews isn't having much of a problem (though he's behind a fence).
"Structural failure" was one phrase I heard. I'm a terrible reporter. :)
I hear ya ..FNC was also reporting that 18,000 folks went to the shelters because the storm was worse then they had thought it would be.
Local news is predicting tropical strom winds up here later tonight and into tomorrow
It's going to be a long afternoon/night.
I've got some things to get done; I'll try to pop back in later.
I guess it's just wrong of me to hope that at least one of them is Geraldo...
That is NOT good
Are you okay?
I saw a view of one of the piers starting to come apart. The wave damage is cumulative - a constant beating until things loosen up and start coming apart. That seems to be the case with the hotel. Probably one of those fake stucco buildings that looks strong, but is a simple stick-frame building underneath.
The back side of the storm will have stronger winds, as most of y'all know already.
Thank God we had 15 removed about 2 weeks before the ice storm or we would be in big trouble. Turns out that 2 HUGE ones were rotten inside but looked fine on the outside.
MKM
Yep! I look at those during tornado season up here in Michigan. What's interesting to me is that it also shows the storm movement in that it's not 180° blue and 180° yellow; you can see where the wind is asymmetric.
Nothing to do now except hang on, though - it's too late to build reinforcement or evacuate.
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