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Posted on 09/15/2003 10:18:31 AM PDT by NormsRevenge
You can bet the Republicans and Democrats are trying to figure out Stockton's Linda Mora and Jim Molina.
Mora, 60, and Molina, 46, are registered Democrats -- mostly because that's the way their Latino families always voted.
But put a decent Republican in front of them, and loyalty goes out the window.
Given the choice between one good elephant and one good donkey, they're likely to play "eeny-meeny-miney-mo."
"You have to get beyond party lines and look beyond that, at the person and the issues," said Mora, a program coordinator at El Concilio.
"I vote independent of the party," said Molina, owner of a Stockton insurance agency. "I'd vote against a Democrat if it's not the right person."
Mora and Molina are part of a national trend uncovered by Republican and Democratic pollsters that shows Latino independents catching up to Latino Democrats. Each makes up 40 percent of the Latino electorate, with Republicans at 20 percent.
Sergio Bendixen, a Democratic Party pollster based in Miami, and Raul Damas, a GOP pollster in the Washington, D.C., area based in Virginia, both reached the same conclusion.
"Latino independents are becoming the swing vote in American politics," Bendixen said by phone from Miami. "Where the immigrant vote is important, the Latino vote is really up for grabs."
Damas said voters are breaking the traditional Democratic hammerlock on the Latino vote and straying. "But those voters aren't necessarily being picked up by the GOP," Damas said.
New political animal
"They're not Democrat, not Republican; they're independent," said Jose Rodriguez, executive director of El Concilio. "That's why (Latinos) are becoming the potential swing vote that can make or break candidates."
Bendixen said the national numbers are driven by a large segment of Latino voters that did not exist before 1995: immigrants.
"They're still trying to decide their political loyalties and trying to understand the difference between Democrats and Republicans," Bendixen said.
And so when it's time to vote, they swing, mostly in cities such as Los Angeles, where immigrants are 70 percent of the Latino vote, Bendixen said. It's also true in Florida and New York.
What makes Stockton interesting is that U.S.-born Latinos such as Mora and Molina dominate here, not immigrants, Bendixen said.
And when the U.S.-born begin to break away, it could indicate the potential for even greater erosion of the Democratic Party.
In Stockton, the community's business interests are a strong factor in determining Latino political identity.
"I'm a Democrat who doesn't always vote the party line," said Molina, who is also president of the Mexican American Chamber of Commerce of Stockton-San Joaquin County. "I'm an independent businessperson who doesn't always agree with Democrats who create laws that aren't business-friendly."
He's especially concerned about Senate Bill 2, which would require small businesses to purchase health insurance for employees.
"If that law passes, it would affect a small-business person like myself," Molina said.
When told that Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante backs SB2, Molina laughed.
"I know," he said.
So what would be more important to him when considering Bustamante for the recall: the issues or "la raza" (the race)?
"La raza," Molina said.
Mora said she's partial to whoever will do the most for the Latino community. But she said she's no knee-jerk voter for the Democrats and Bustamante. "I haven't decided," she said. "That's how independent I am."
While most U.S.-born Latinos in Stockton are solidly Democratic, she said, she has noticed the national trend among the foreign-born here.
At El Concilio, Mora deals with new immigrants all the time. She said 25 percent of them have become citizens and vote, and the biggest surge took place when Pete Wilson was governor and engineered Proposition 187, the initiative that barred illegal immigrants from state services.
"A lot got upset, legalized and voted," Mora said. "And they still vote."
That may be why Bob Mulholland, a Democratic Party campaign adviser, isn't worried about too many defections among Latinos in future elections.
Latino voters could exceed 2 million, or 25 percent of all voters, assuming a turnout similar to the 2002 election, according to an estimate from the Mexican American Political Association.
Democrats already are planning a big mailing to registered Latinos to make sure the Latino vote sticks. The mailer features a photo of Arnold Schwarzenegger hugging his campaign adviser Wilson, the man Mulholland called "the most despised Republican in the Latino community."
"That photo's in the mail," Mulholland said, confident about the lock on the Latino vote and that of other people of color. "The Latinos, African-Americans and Asian-Americans are the base of the Democratic Party, and that continues."
But independents such as Mora insist party regulars such as those who met at the state Democratic and Republican conventions in Los Angeles this past weekend shouldn't assume allegiance among Latinos is automatic.
"I think we can no longer take for granted that every Latino is a Democrat," Mora said.
Well, at least Tom doesn;t have to worry about who he has hugged in the past... and it showing up in mailers later. ;-)
Just kidding. ;-P
Most posters are jammed on the Recall delay and Assassinate Tom's character and campaign threads.
I am of the opinion that the dems know that they have already lost their hold on their "locked up" voters, and the end is at hand, and no amount of their stalling and delaying will stop their fate from coming to be.
A lot of these folks want to be successful and see how socialist policies are killing their chance to succeed here and to be good citizens and taxpayers.
What else can they do but fight as all of us are fighting this battle against a runaway demRatic legislature and leaders intent on imposing their poisonous, toxic business killing agendas.
Thanks for stopping by. :-)
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