Future of Digital Books Lies with Babies, Boomers

Readers hungry for a good page-turner will still turn to bookstores and libraries, but cheaper computers and changing consumer habits suggest that electronic books, or e-books, still have a future.

To be sure, that future is years away, particularly after Barnes & Noble Inc. (NYSE:BKS - news), the world's largest bookseller, last week shook the nascent market by shutting its eBooks (news - web sites) store. Daniel Blackman of barnesandnoble.com said downloadable books have not lived up to their hype.

"There is a market ... but it has not materialized to the point that we will be able to support the business," he said.

As with digital music, multiple books -- say, Shakespeare's collected works -- can be stored on a memory card the size of a stick of gum, making them popular with travelers, students and professionals. They are read on hand-held devices running operating systems by Palm or Microsoft, or on a PC or notebook computer.

E-books may find their niche with tech-savvy youth unfazed by the notion of browsing literature on a screen, and the growing legion of retirement-age readers, according to Richard Doherty, research director at Envisioneering Group.

"Two audiences that will benefit best are young people who loathe the idea of a library ... and aging people who want the convenience of large type on demand," or freedom from lugging heavy hardcover tomes.

For now, e-books are an afterthought in the publishing world. Less than 500,000 electronic books were sold in the United States in 2002, compared with more than 1.5 billion printed books, estimates research firm Ipsos-Insight in Chicago.

Back in 2000, downloadable books enjoyed the same kind of ebullience lavished over all things Internet, with research firms projecting sales of about $250 million by 2005.

That excitement waned after a brief period of hype, which saw the likes of Microsoft Corp.(Nasdaq:MSFT - news), Palm Inc. (Nasdaq:PALM - news), Adobe Systems Inc. (Nasdaq:ADBE - news), Gemstar and Franklin Electronic Publishers Inc. (AMEX:FEP - news) developing gadgets on which one could read stories or software to mimic the look of a printed page.

Seen as too heavy, too expensive and not as much fun to read as paperbacks, tablet-like e-book devices failed to catch on. Gemstar-TV Guide International Inc. (Nasdaq:GMST - news), which aspired to be the world's top e-book supplier, quit the business in July and stopped selling the gadgets.

"The typical American consumer isn't ready for an e-book," Barrie Rappaport of Ipsos said. "It doesn't fit in their lifestyle at this point. As far as reading goes, people like to touch paper."

Moreover, while major publishers have committed to e-books, concerns about piracy -- which has ravaged the music industry -- may limit the number of new titles that are made available.

Still, Palm, Microsoft and Adobe continue to improve their respective reader software, which are free. Palm, Adobe and retailer Amazon.com Inc. (Nasdaq:AMZN - news), which also sells downloadable books, said they plan no major strategic changes.

"We think that in the long term, e-book technology has a great future," said Adobe's Russell Brady. "Market acceptance has not taken off quite as quickly as was predicted, but we are certainly continuing to invest in this area."

They are encouraged by the evolution of pocket-sized computers and lower notebook prices, providing more screens on which e-books can be read. More than 20 million handhelds have been sold and new models sell for less than $100.

"(On Wednesday) we sold 2,000 e-books. It was the largest retail day at Palm Digital Media in 2003, and we are having the largest month ever," Ryan WuerchMost, chief executive of privately held Web retailer PalmGear, said last week. PalmGear recently bought Palm Inc.'s digital publishing unit.

He estimated that PalmGear, whose offerings range from "Beowolf" to best-sellers by Stephen King and Al Franken, will sell some 1.3 million e-books over the next 12 months.

To further raise awareness, sellers must cut prices, according to IDC analyst Susan Kevorkian.

It is too early to declare the demise of the digital book," she said. "(But) to raise awareness there needs to be competitive pricing in place to get people to adopt the technology."

I've got about 200, I didn't used to listen to them but then my wife got me a new turner, now I listen to them a lot. LPs are great, I listen to LPs at home and save the CDs for in the car, there's something about the tactile sensation of an LP that no other format will ever be able to compete with, I think that's why they're holding on and maybe even coming back with the hardcore music junkies. If there's a music format that will die it's cassettes, worse art presentation than CDs, worse sound than LPs, no amount of care can make them age well (eventually the glue holding that spongy thing in place dies no matter how careful you are), and no convenient way to sellect individual songs.

There is a lot of cool stuff already here, but my car doesn't fly and I don't have a jetpack, and because of that I'll never trust technology and social predictions.

I will NEVER give up on traditional books. I was an "early reader," who was reading on a kindergarten level when I was three, and on the high school level when I was seven, and books are something I hold too dear to ever forsake for something else. I worked at a library for nearly eight years, and when I moved to the States, I had to leave my prized paperback collection behind with my parents. Fortunately, there are TWO used bookstores where I live (in Minneapolis's Dinkytown district), so I'm not going hungry.

Textbooks are an ideal first market for e-books. They're heavy,

Carrying around all that weight is good exercise.

they're expensive

OMG, are you ever right about that!

New books in general are costly enough--but textbooks are a real racket--I suspect the people selling those books probably make more than most of the people who buy them ever will.

Criminal. Scandalous.

and you only need them for a short time

Imagine: some of the most expensive books any of us ever own--and they are not worth holding on to.

Something's wrong.

e-text is searchable.

Probably bad for students--makes it easier for them to cheat themselves out of learning by zeroing in on just what they need for an assignment, without bothering about the rest.

(Though I confess, I haven't much respect for much of what is passing for education these days--since most diplomas are really nothing more than proof to future employers that the holder is willing to obey and perform endless drudgery to be rewarded in the end by the mythical corporate carrot. Education that is really worth something, does not need a diploma: of itself, it empowers.)

No amount of care can preserve vinyl. The plastic depends on solvents for flexibility. Even if you never play them they will deteriorate. Even faster if you do play them.

Vinyl never lost its following among the devoted. Personally I hated it even when it was the best thing available. I hated the clicks and pops, I hated the distortion on loud passages. Most of my collection is classical. All the limitations of vinyl are at their worst on classical.

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