They all are underweighting what is happening under the radar, as well. Interesting voter registration numbers from Dan Weintraub's blog yesterday:
"The numbers say that since May, California’s voter rolls have expanded by a net of about 194,000. Of those, more than half, or about 94,000, have been either minor party or decline-to-state registrations. About 80,000 have registered Republican, while 20,000 have registered as Democrats. The separate categories are net figures and thus could also reflect changes in registration of those who were already on the rolls. The numbers for August were even more striking, according to this analysis. There were 72,000 new voters in that month alone. The change in party registration, meanwhile, breaks down this way: 39,000, or 55 percent, were third party or independent registrations. About 23,000, or 32 percent, were Republicans. And 9,000, or 13 percent, were Democrats. "
This race is unlike any other.We are definitely in for some ride in the coming weeks--and who knows where we will end up....
In a review of the poll, many questions pop up...
In the .pdf file:
1. Question 2 uses the word "seriously" when referring to the "wrong track", influencing voters that the questioner thinks what is happening is not serious (still got a 74 percent wrong track, though RATS only 65 percent).
2. Questions 3 and 4 are missing. What were they? Were they questions like "do find it unfair that Republicans are overturning an election? (they did something similar to that last time)
3. Question 7 is missing...suspicious...
4. In question 8 they did not rotate the list of candidates, Bustamante was number 1 and McClintock was number 2...A way of influencing people is to put the answers you are looking for at the beginning or the end. In this case Bustamante was first, Ueberroth was last, and Arnold was in the middle. Note this way of asking got Ueberroth 8 percent...
Not much of an analysis, but this in the Slimes poll and we can trust the outcome is skewed...
DD
Not correct....LA Times poll ...polled more conservatives than SURVEY USA and the FIELD POll...
and that's why their poll is screwed up....if MCClintock is at 18%..then why is the RECall at 50%... FIELD POLL and SURVEY USA have good track record in CA...