Stanford poll: Terminator in lead to become gubernator

Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger beats Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante in the Oct. 7 election to replace Gov. Gray Davis, according to results of a Stanford University online survey of California voters. The Stanford poll, taken Aug. 29 to Sept. 8, is the first public poll to put the movie actor ahead of the career politician.

Unlike conventional telephone polls, which have reported Mr. Bustamante leading the recall race, Californians who participated in the online survey voted 40 percent for Schwarzenegger and 28 percent for the lieutenant governor. Among registered voters, 62 percent indicated "yes" for the recall and 38 percent said "no."

"What this shows is that undecided voters gravitate to the most visible candidate, the candidate with name recognition," says Shanto Iyengar, chairman of the Department of Communication.

Mr. Iyengar and political science professors David Brady and Morris Fiorina sponsored the poll to learn more about the logic behind voters' decision-making leading up to the special election, the first of its kind in the state's history. Knowledge Networks, a Menlo Park-based research firm, surveyed a representative sample of 852 adult Californians, 528 of whom are likely voters.

Unlike conventional polls, which restrict respondents' choices to the top candidates and give them the option of selecting "undecided" as a response, the online survey gave participants the actual ballot that included the question about recalling Mr. Davis and listing the 135 replacement candidates. Mr. Fiorina says this scenario is closer to the actual situation voters will face on Oct. 7.

"What this shows is that when voters have to choose, they're voting for Schwarzenegger," he says. "I won't say he'll win -- the situation is fluid -- but Schwarzenegger has more upside potential. The undecided vote won't break 50-50."

According to poll results, support for the recall was strongly associated with political party affiliation -- 91 percent of Republicans and 42 percent of Democrats "voted" to recall Mr. Davis. Only 3 percent of Republicans chose Mr. Bustamante but 19 percent of Democrats selected Mr. Schwarzenegger.

No other candidate received more than 10 percent support in the poll. Republican state Sen. Tom McClintock received 8 percent; Peter Ueberroth -- who has since dropped out of the race -- garnered 7 percent; and independent Arianna Huffington received just 1 percent.

Forty-three percent of male voters and 38 percent of female voters supported Mr. Schwarzenegger. He also ran well among white (42 percent), Hispanic (37 percent) and Asian (48 percent) respondents. Mr. Bustamante was the clear choice of African Americans (62 percent), but led Mr. Schwarzenegger by only 3 percent among Hispanic voters.

Here's their Gore/Bush survey from 2000.

Press Release
Knowledge Networks and CBS News Get Scientific Feedback From Viewers of the Third Presidential Debate
Results of Web-Enabled Poll Show America's Immediate Reaction to Third Debate

Menlo Park, CA - October 17, 2000: Knowledge Networks, the Web-based opinion polling company, revealed some results within minutes after tonight's debate between presidential candidates Al Gore and George W. Bush. In its real-time poll of the only Web-based, scientifically representative sample of the entire U.S. population, the company found that the debate viewing public thought Al Gore won the third and final debate of the 2000 election campaign.

"We saw a very impressive response rate from our online panel, with 617 members responding within 15 minutes to our survey questions," commented Mario Brossard, Vice President and Managing Director of Knowledge Networks' political practice in Washington, DC. "This allowed our client, CBS News, to broadcast the audience's immediate reaction to the debate before hearing the pudit's analyses of who won and who lost or whose make-up was applied properly and whose wasn't. This nearly real-time audience analysis is an extremely valuable tool for a media organization like CBS News, and is only possible through the use of our representative Web-enabled technology."

Following are some of the findings reported during the minutes after the end of the final round of presidential debates.
Findings (%) -- Poll of registered voters across the U.S.:

Which candidate do you think did the best job – or won – tonight's debate?
Al Gore: 46%
George W. Bush: 40%
Tie: 15%

Has anything you have learned from, or about, the debates made you change your mind about whom to vote for?
Yes: 14%
No: 86%

From the debates, have you learned anything about the candidates that has helped you make up your mind whom to vote for?
Yes: 59%
No: 40%

Compared to two weeks ago, before the first debate, how do you now feel about the idea of George W. Bush serving as President?
I feel better about the idea: 36%
I feel worse about the idea: 25%
I feel the same now as I did then: 38%

Compared to two weeks ago, before the first debate, how do you now feel about the idea of Al Gore serving as President?
I feel better about the idea: 34%
I feel worse about the idea: 31%
I feel the same now as I did then: 35%

Note: The percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding or because some respondents may have declined to answer certain questions. The margin of sampling error for this poll of registered voters is +/- 5 percentage points.

How Knowledge Networks' Surveys Work

Through its Web-enabled surveys, Knowledge Networks develops insight and analysis on behavior, attitudes, opinions and purchase intentions for major corporations. Combining the statistical reliability of probability sampling with the power of the Web, Knowledge Networks has overcome the limitations of existing surveys, including Internet, telephone, mail, and in- person techniques.

About Knowledge Networks

Knowledge Networks combines first-class science with the power of the Internet to maximize the collection of information on public attitudes and behavior. Founded by two leading professors from Stanford University, Knowledge Networks is manifesting the future promise of the Internet today, through innovative use of technology.

Knowledge Networks' early innovations include the only Web-based research based on a scientifically representative sample of the entire U.S. population. The company has developed the capability to test advertising over the Internet without compromising video quality, and an innovative approach to tracking Brand Equity on the Web. Led by a top team of technologists and experts in product and service marketing,

Knowledge Networks serves clients nationally from five offices: Boston, Chicago, Cincinnati, New York, Washington D.C., and its corporate headquarters in Menlo Park, California.

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