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HURRICANE ISABEL becomes first Atlantic Category 5 Hurricane since 1998.....
National Hurricane Center ^ | September 11, 2003 | Pasch

Posted on 09/11/2003 1:30:19 PM PDT by John H K

BULLETIN HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST THU SEP 11 2003

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS ISABEL NOW AT CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT HURRICANE ISABEL HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...AND HAS REACHED CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ISABEL IS THE FIRST CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE MITCH OF 1998.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.3 WEST OR ABOUT 500 MILES...805 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLAND.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...21.6 N... 55.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 921 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: hurricane; hurricaneisabel; isabel
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To: dansangel
Dadgumit! I guess I need to keep an eye on that storm- the old house we're in has survived 120 mph winds, but some of the trees around us are dead & likely to fall over. Foo!

Some sources for WX info:

-http://www.nws.noaa.gov/--

-http://www.weather.com/--

-http://weather.iwon.com/index_static.html--

-http://www.crh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p19r0/si.kdtx.shtml--

-http://weather.unisys.com/index.html--

-http://www.wxmesg.com/--

-http://hurricane.terrapin.com/--

301 posted on 09/12/2003 1:01:37 PM PDT by backhoe
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To: dennis1x
It's really amazing that Isabel has such a huge eye (30 miles) with those wind speeds. Wowser--flight level winds at 180 MPH.

Average eye diameter is about 15 miles. Range is considered 9-25.

302 posted on 09/12/2003 1:02:08 PM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: Hatteras
Wow! Now you have given me an INCREDIBLE urge to try that aged Rum. It might be worth a trip to Freeport, Bahamas to get some of that rum duty-free. BTW, at one time (colonial era) rum was the most important drink in the Americas. I read a story somewhere that linked rum to the American Revolution. Apparently it was more important than tea.
303 posted on 09/12/2003 1:10:00 PM PDT by PJ-Comix
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To: Dog Gone
Isabel Recon says, "Nice stadium effect."

Here's a photo of the stadium effect from Georges. Click on photo for bigger version.


304 posted on 09/12/2003 1:16:52 PM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: PJ-Comix
It's too bad their forecasting is HORRIBLE.
305 posted on 09/12/2003 1:20:33 PM PDT by My Favorite Headache (Which one will lose? Depends on what I choose or maybe which voice...I ignore.)
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To: dirtboy
Looks like the latest models have it getting caught in the trough and missing FL. Carolinas perhaps, but FL will dodge this bullet.
306 posted on 09/12/2003 1:24:09 PM PDT by ContemptofCourt
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To: backhoe
I'll pray that it heads straight up into Antartica and misses you completely. Wouldn't want to wish a category 5 on anyone.

Thank you for your ever-ready links! ((((backhoe))))
307 posted on 09/12/2003 1:26:02 PM PDT by dansangel (***Never Forget!****)
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To: Hatteras
Best I've had is the Cruzan Single Barrel from the VI.

Don't care for Barbancourt much. Used to like Myers, but have converted to Black Seal (Bermuda).

308 posted on 09/12/2003 1:26:31 PM PDT by ContemptofCourt
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To: NautiNurse
Uh, if that UKMET model pans out, I wouldn't take a late-summer vacation on the Outer Banks next week. That model takes Isabel head-on into Hatteras from the south.

}:-)4
309 posted on 09/12/2003 1:31:46 PM PDT by Moose4 (I'm Southern. We've been refighting the Civil War for 138 years, you think we'll forget 9/11?)
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To: NautiNurse
Wow. What else can you say to that picture but...wow?

}:-)4
310 posted on 09/12/2003 1:32:49 PM PDT by Moose4 (I'm Southern. We've been refighting the Civil War for 138 years, you think we'll forget 9/11?)
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To: Moose4
Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 27

Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on September 12, 2003

...Air Force reserve and NOAA hurricane hunters confirm that Isabel
is a category five hurricane...

 
at 5 PM AST...2100z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located
near latitude 21.8 north...longitude  58.6 west or about 350
miles...565 km...northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.

 
Isabel is moving toward the west near  9 mph...15 km/hr...and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

 
Report from Air Force reserve and NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph...260
km/hr...with higher gusts.  This makes Isabel a category five
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.  Fluctuations in
intensity are common in major hurricanes...and are likely during
the next 24 hours.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  85 miles...140 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 185 miles...295 km.

 
The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane
hunters is  920 mb...27.17 inches.

Large ocean swells and dangerous surf conditions are likely over
portions of the Leeward Islands...the Virgin Islands...and Puerto
Rico over the next several days.

Repeating the 5 PM AST position...21.8 N... 58.6 W.  Movement
toward...west near  9 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds...160 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 920 mb.

 
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 11 PM AST.

 
Forecaster Beven

311 posted on 09/12/2003 1:43:40 PM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: PJ-Comix
Hurricane Isabel Discussion Number 27

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 12, 2003

Reports from Air Force reserve and NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft
confirm that Isabel is a category 5 hurricane.  Maximum observed
flight-level winds so far are 156 kt at 700 mb...supporting surface
winds near 140 kt.  The eye is 30 nm wide with a closed Wall and a
minimum pressure of 920 mb. The initial intensity thus remains 140
kt...which agrees with satellite intensity estimates.  It should be
noted that Isabel looks a little less organized in satellite
imagery than it did 24 hr ago.  Thus it might have been a little
stronger yesterday.

The eye has recently nudged to the right...but the longer term
motion remains 270/8.  There is little change in the synoptic
pattern or reasoning from the previous forecast.  Isabel is
currently south of a deep layer ridge...with an anticyclone seen
in water vapor imagery near 29n55w...and upper-level troughs along
68w and 42w.  In the short term...this should produce a westward to
possibly west-northwestward motion.  Upstream...a deep layer
cyclonic circulation is over the southeastern United
States with a mid/upper-level ridge building over southeastern
Canada.  Large-scale guidance forecasts the southeastern system to
move northward...leaving a weakness on the southwest side of the
Canadian ridge as it builds eastward into the Atlantic.  NHC track
guidance agrees on a westward to west-northwestward motion through
72 hr... and to that time the forecast track is an update of the
previous package.  Considerable divergence occurs after 72 hr.  The
UKMET calls for a gradual turn toward the northwest by 120 hr in
response to the weakness.  The GFS...NOGAPS...GFDL...and Canadian
models all call for a more northward motion.  Since all models keep
some deep layer ridging over the northwest Atlantic north and
northeast of Isabel...so sharp of a turn continues to look a little
dubious.  Thus...the 3-5 day official forecast will lean toward the
UKMET.  It should be noted that the UKMET is calling for more
northward motion after 96 hr than forecast earlier...and the
official forecast is thus shifted to the right of the previous
forecast after 72 hr.  Given the divergence of the models at 120
hr...it is still too early to speculate which parts...if any...of
eastern coast of the United States may get affected by Isabel.

Isabel is forecast to remain in a warm-water low-shear environment
for roughly the next 72 hr.  During that time...the intensity
should be controlled mainly by eyewall replacement cycles.  The
intensity forecast will thus call for a slow weakening through that
time based on continuity from previous forecasts and climatology. 
After 72 hr...the GFS and ships models suggest Isabel may be
affected by southwesterly vertical shear.  Based on this...the
intensity forecast will call for a somewhat faster weakening after
72 hr.

Wind radii have been revised on the basis of aircraft data. It
should be noted that large-scale models all forecast Isabel to grow
in size beyond 72 hr even if the inner core weakens.

Forecaster Beven

 

312 posted on 09/12/2003 1:45:59 PM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: PJ-Comix
How Ya' Doin My Friend?

Nobody does late night weather drunk better than Dave Schwartz...the king!

313 posted on 09/12/2003 1:51:59 PM PDT by My Favorite Headache (Which one will lose? Depends on what I choose or maybe which voice...I ignore.)
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To: NautiNurse
Beautiful picture...
314 posted on 09/12/2003 1:53:34 PM PDT by My Favorite Headache (Which one will lose? Depends on what I choose or maybe which voice...I ignore.)
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To: NautiNurse
Looking like it will miss all of FL, and possibly the Carolinas...also, the 120 hr forecast is for 105kt winds...strong, but much less so than today.
315 posted on 09/12/2003 1:56:08 PM PDT by ContemptofCourt
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To: My Favorite Headache
I know the perfect theme music for Isabel. Remember the music from the movie, The Black Hole? The movie was stupid but that theme tune would be PERFECT for this hurricane.
316 posted on 09/12/2003 1:58:28 PM PDT by PJ-Comix
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To: ContemptofCourt
yep, every update is further and further north.....i still say no landfall....
317 posted on 09/12/2003 2:03:34 PM PDT by dennis1x
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To: My Favorite Headache
"The sick thing Rebel is that I would love to experience this one...it looks amazing...and yes before you ask..I have lived through many storms...including Andrew. I am a weather fanatic like that."

You sound like that character "Skink" out of a Carl Haissen book. If you've not read any of his books, Skink is a character that has someone tie to one of the bridges leading to the 'glades as Andrew approached.

I'm like that too, just not as brave here 300+ miles inland.

318 posted on 09/12/2003 2:10:46 PM PDT by Vigilantcitizen (RIP....Johnny Cash)
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To: PJ-Comix
I actually saw The Black Hole at the movie theater...YEARS!!!!!!! Ago!!!!! Scared the hell out of me as a kid.
319 posted on 09/12/2003 2:32:08 PM PDT by My Favorite Headache (Which one will lose? Depends on what I choose or maybe which voice...I ignore.)
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To: PJ-Comix
I actually saw The Black Hole at the movie theater...YEARS!!!!!!! Ago!!!!! Scared the hell out of me as a kid.
320 posted on 09/12/2003 2:42:20 PM PDT by My Favorite Headache (Which one will lose? Depends on what I choose or maybe which voice...I ignore.)
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