(CNSNews.com) - A public opinion survey of Iraqis said to be the first of its kind shows that more than two-thirds of respondents think their country will be in better shape five years from now.
The survey by Zogby International, which included 600 adults in four Iraqi cities, showed that 31.7 percent of respondents think the country will be "much better" in five years, with another 38 percent saying Iraq will be "somewhat better."
Among those surveyed were Arabs, Kurds, Turkaman and Assyrians living in different parts of the country, including Basra, Karkouk, Mousel and Al Ramadi, according to a statement by the pollster.
Slightly more than 20 percent of those surveyed said they think things will get worse in Iraq now that former dictator Saddam Hussein has been deposed, with 13.2 percent saying Iraq will be "somewhat worse" in five years and 7.4 percent thinking the country will be "a lot worse."
According to Zogby, the survey also took into consideration the various religious groups dominant in Iraq, including Shiaa and Sunni Muslims, as well as Christians.
The survey was conducted over a 16-day period that ended on Aug. Send a Letter to the Editor about this article.
Just have to wonder how an 'average' Iraqi might react to someone coming along and asking him to take part in a poll.
I'd guess that 98% of these people have never been 'officially' asked for an opinion in their lives. Apart, that is, from 'which dirt road is less likely to break the axle on the donkey cart' or 'how much of the day is going to be pi***d away with that mandatory Saddam Hussein rally'.
The concept of citizens having some impact on their government has got to be a tough one to adapt to after so many years.
Scrapbook: Iraqis better future
September 12, 2003
Zogby International survey researchers and The American Enterprise have conducted the first scientific poll of the Iraqi public in four disparate cities
IRAQIS are optimistic. Seven out of 10 say they expect their country and their personal lives will be better five years from now. On both fronts, 32 per cent say things will become much better.
The toughest part of reconstructing their nation, Iraqis say by three to one, will be politics, not economics. They are nervous about democracy. Asked which is closer to their own view -- "Democracy can work well in Iraq", or "Democracy is a Western way of doing things" -- five out of 10 said democracy is Western and won't work in Iraq. One in 10 wasn't sure. And four out of 10 said democracy can work in Iraq. There were interesting divergences. Sunnis were negative on democracy by more than two to one; but, critically, the majority Shiites were as likely to say democracy would work for Iraqis as not. People aged 18-29 are much rosier about democracy than other Iraqis, and women are significantly more positive than men.
Asked to name one country they would most like Iraq to model its new government on from five possibilities -- neighbouring Baathist Syria; neighbour and Islamic monarchy Saudi Arabia; neighbour and Islamist republic Iran; Arab lodestar Egypt; or the US -- the most popular model by far was the US. The US was preferred as a model by 37 per cent of Iraqis selecting from those five -- more than Syria, Iran and Egypt put together. Saudi Arabia was in second place at 28 per cent. Again, there were important demographic splits. Younger adults are especially favourable towards the US, and Shiites are more admiring than Sunnis. Interestingly, Iraqi Shiites, coreligionists with Iranians, do not admire Iran's Islamist Government; the US is six times as popular with them as a model for governance.
Our interviewers inquired whether Iraq should have an Islamic government, or instead let all people practise their own religion. Only 33 per cent want an Islamic government; a solid 60 per cent say no. A vital detail: Shiites (whom Western reporters frequently portray as self-flagellating maniacs) are least receptive to the idea of an Islamic government, saying no by 66 per cent to 27 per cent. It is only among the minority Sunnis that there is interest in a religious state, and they are split evenly on the question.
Perhaps the strongest indication that an Islamic government won't be part of Iraq's future: the nation is thoroughly secularised. We asked how often our respondents had attended the Friday prayer over the previous month. Fully 43 per cent said "never". It's time to scratch Khomeini II from the list of morbid fears.
You can also cross out Osama II: 57 per cent of Iraqis with an opinion have an unfavourable view of Osama bin Laden, with 41 per cent of those saying it is a very unfavourable view. (Women are especially down on him.) Except in the Sunni triangle (where the limited support that exists for bin Laden is heavily concentrated), negative views of the al-Q'aida supremo are actually quite lopsided in all parts of the country. And those opinions were collected before Iraqi police announced it was al-Q'aida members who killed worshippers with a truck bomb in Najaf.
And you can write off the possibility of a Baath revival. We asked: "Should Baath Party leaders who committed crimes in the past be punished, or should past actions be put behind us?" A thoroughly unforgiving Iraqi public stated by 74 per cent to 18 per cent that Saddam Hussein's henchmen should be punished.
Perhaps the ultimate indication of how comfortable Iraqis are with America's aims in their region came when we asked how long they would like to see American and British forces remain in their country: Six months? One year? Two years or more? Two-thirds of those with an opinion urged that the coalition troops should stick around for at least another year.
Zogby International survey researchers and The American Enterprise conducted the first scientific poll of the Iraqi public in four disparate cities
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,7236569%255E7583,00.html
"Good morning. You are listening to National Public Radio. This is NPR Senior News Analyst Daniel Schorr."
"In one our top stories this morning, a recent poll has found that a sizeable percentage of Iraqis, over one third of them, were not optimistic about Iraq's future and did not think that the ouster of Saddam Hussein was worth the sacrifices that have endured."
"We will have a more in-depth analysis of this disturbing development later in our program."