Ugly Storm Abrewing

Cripes , a few more of these bad boys and my tuna fishing season will be a bust. How can I fish when the Off shore forecast is calling for one of these. I'll get sick as a dog. if they pass within 500 miles of Jersey our offshore seas go into overdrive.
What someone has to do is go out into the middle of the atlantic ocean and build a giant wall underwater, right along the equator as they form (the most popular path of these things?) and where there is a constant easterly wind. This will create a nice giant ice cold upwelling which will then spread east cooling the surface waters and putting a real damper on these things. Then I can fish in peace and maybe even have a new long range fishing destination. Any amateur climatologists know the feasability of such a thing?

21 posted on 09/10/2003 7:24:30 PM PDT by foto

Or better yet, freeze the oceans.... :-)

22 posted on 09/10/2003 7:25:35 PM PDT by Archangelsk ("Toss in a buck ya cheap bastard, I paid for your g**damn breakfast." Joe)

That is a great weather map.

23 posted on 09/10/2003 7:26:25 PM PDT by Ditter

I'm glad I live in California....Nah,nah,nah, nah, nah

Yeah, but you have other big, windy things to worry about (cue Davis and Bustamante tirades).

24 posted on 09/10/2003 7:27:20 PM PDT by Archangelsk ("Toss in a buck ya cheap bastard, I paid for your g**damn breakfast." Joe)

Sailed these same waters on a trans-Atlantic last December ... after the hurricane season. Very pleased that I'm not out there now on a 15 meter yacht ... very unpleasant sailing.

25 posted on 09/10/2003 7:27:20 PM PDT by BluH2o

That's true, that fat blank and that crusty old skeleton....

26 posted on 09/10/2003 7:28:46 PM PDT by Porterville (I spell stuff wrong sometimes, get over yourself, you're not that great.)

Hmm...I'm doing a charity bicycle ride from Cherry Hill, NJ to Ocean City, NJ on 9/20 and 9/21 (we ride down on Saturday and back on Sunday). Why do I get the feeling that this might screw up the works?

A few years ago a tropical storm was coming up the coast when we were on the ride. It was *not* fun.

27 posted on 09/10/2003 7:29:42 PM PDT by Windcatcher

"However, in about 4 or 5 days, it's going to increase sales at Home Depot bigtime."

And increase the short sales on Allstate, State Farm, etc. 100 fold....

Guess I'll buy some more wood. Damn.

28 posted on 09/10/2003 7:32:31 PM PDT by Beck_isright (Shenandoah and Blue Ridge will re-emerge as the investment of the 21st Century....)

There has been a lot of small tremors right on the San Andreas lately; some think the BIG ONE is right around the corner. The USGS will never say anything since they get in sooo much trouble with the real estate people.

http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/recenteqs/Maps/122-40.html

29 posted on 09/10/2003 7:39:27 PM PDT by GRANGER

I'm glad I live in California....Nah,nah,nah, nah, nah

Big One to Big One, I'd rather have the air pass over, than the ground pass under.

30 posted on 09/10/2003 7:40:46 PM PDT by ALASKA

31 posted on 09/10/2003 7:42:09 PM PDT by GRANGER

32 posted on 09/10/2003 7:42:43 PM PDT by Redleg Duke (Stir the pot...don't let anything settle to the bottom where the lawyers can feed off of it!)

I believe Isabel has finished crossing the "cold wake" left by Fabian. Next it's the Gulf Stream off Florida, or maybe into the Carribean before crossing the Gulf Stream elsewhere.

However, they don't seem to put a lot of faith in the SW jog forecasted by the models. But we'll know a little more around 11 EDT.

33 posted on 09/10/2003 7:42:43 PM PDT by DaGman

To: Beck_isright

Guess I'll buy some more wood. Damn.

Interesting how different regions flock the stores for different stuff around 'cane season. In TX our panic buy is bread and milk, for whatever reason.

34 posted on 09/10/2003 7:54:25 PM PDT by txhurl

The Latest...

000
WTNT43 KNHC 110240
TCDAT3
HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2003

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T6.5...127 KT...AND SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 125 KT. THE MOST RECENT 3-HR AVERAGE OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS JUST BELOW 130 KT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS CURRENTLY NO UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH... THERE ARE TWO VERY EFFICIENT OUTFLOW CHANNELS OPERATING TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE HURRICANE. ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY INWARD BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/9. THE WESTWARD TRACK IS THE RESULT OF A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH OF ISABEL NEAR 30N. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO SLIDE WESTWARD WITH ISABEL FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...AND MAINTAIN ISABEL ON A TRACK JUST A BIT NORTH OF DUE WESTWARD. BY DAYS 4 AND 5 OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...NEARLY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SLOWS THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH AND ALLOWS THE TRACK TO SLOW AND BEND SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT. THE FOUR MAIN TRACK MODELS... THE GFDL...GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS...ARE NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 5...AS THE GFS HAS SHIFTED SUBSTANTIALLY NORTHWARD FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT GUIDANCE...BUT IS STILL ON THE SOUTH EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE ONE OUTLIER IS THE ECMWF...A MODEL VERY SKILLED AT FORECASTING LARGE-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC PATTERNS...WHICH IS SUBSTANTIALLY SOUTH OF THE OTHERS IN BRINGING ISABEL NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS BY DAY 5.

IT IS NATURAL TO WANT TO SPECULATE ON THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 5 DAYS...BUT IT SIMPLY IS NOT POSSIBLE TO DO SO WITH CONFIDENCE. THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MARKEDLY ON HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL REMAIN OFF THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST BY DAY 5. THE EXTENT AND ORIENTATION OF THIS RIDGING WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE BAHAMAS AND THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
GIVEN THAT ISABEL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY FROM THESE AREAS...THIS WOULD BE A GOOD TIME FOR RESIDENTS TO REVIEW THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS IN CASE ISABEL BECOMES A DIRECT THREAT.

THE FIRST RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FLIGHT INTO ISABEL IS SCHEDULED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MISSIONS TO SAMPLE THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT OF ISABEL ARE ALSO SCHEDULED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0300Z 21.1N 52.8W 125 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 21.2N 54.3W 125 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 21.4N 56.2W 125 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 21.7N 58.0W 120 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 22.0N 60.0W 120 KT
72HR VT 14/0000Z 23.0N 64.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 15/0000Z 24.0N 68.0W 115 KT
120HR VT 16/0000Z 25.0N 71.5W 115 KT

35 posted on 09/10/2003 7:57:04 PM PDT by DaGman

Relax. She'll turn north.

36 posted on 09/10/2003 7:59:11 PM PDT by RoughDobermann (Nuke the site from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.)

Same in my home state of KY when the word 'snow' shows up on weather forecasts.

Will be watching this storm as I have many relatives in FL.

37 posted on 09/10/2003 8:00:02 PM PDT by Severa (Wife of Freeper Hostel, USN STS3(SS))

To: Beck_isright

Guess I'll buy some more wood. Damn.

You have a wood burning generator? AC? ;-)

38 posted on 09/10/2003 8:00:22 PM PDT by Tunehead54 (Anyone seen my tagline?)

Weather junkie! LOL!
In these parts, we are used to responding to the more reliable 72 hour forecasts.
T'is the season, after all!
;^)

39 posted on 09/10/2003 8:00:47 PM PDT by sarasmom (Pray for Terri Schiavo.)

A few years ago a tropical storm was coming up the coast when we were on the ride. It was *not* fun.

Considering your screen name, I'm surprised... ;-) Every cyclist likes a nice crosswind, or even better, a nice 30 mph headwind, right?

40 posted on 09/10/2003 8:01:57 PM PDT by RoughDobermann (Nuke the site from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.)

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