Al Qaeda Switches Tactics, Seeks New Targets

BERLIN (Reuters) - Two years of U.S.-led 'war on terror' have damaged al Qaeda and forced it to switch tactics, but it is too soon to proclaim that Washington is winning the struggle, security analysts say.

President Bush told Americans this week that nearly two-thirds of al Qaeda's known leaders had been captured or killed, and declared: "We are rolling back the terrorist threat to civilization."

In the two years since September 11, the group behind the suicide attacks with hijacked planes on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon has failed to achieve any major new strike in the West.

But it has channeled its resources instead into masterminding a string of deadly, though less spectacular attacks in the developing world, from Casablanca to Karachi.

On the same day that Bush spoke, an audio tape broadcast in al Qaeda's name vowed attacks on Americans "everywhere" and boasted that the organization's ranks had doubled.

Although no one knows whether and how fast it is growing, some analysts believe that in postwar Iraq, it faces a giant new opportunity.

While possible al Qaeda involvement in recent attacks remains unproven, these experts say it is inconceivable that the network will not seek to exploit instability, anti-U.S. anger and the chance to target 130,000 occupying American troops.

"I think the events in Iraq have actually played into its hands...The fact that allegedly some of the arrests of people who've executed attacks in Iraq have involved foreign nationals and not Iraqis could be a clue to growing links," said Sebestyen Gorka, fellow of the Terrorism Research Center in Virginia.

"This is a very ripe recruiting ground and theater of operations for al Qaeda, in my opinion."

Iraq would fit neatly with al Qaeda's new approach of operating via local groups, mainly within Islamic countries, using its signature tactics of multiple simultaneous attacks and suicide bombings.

Since losing accused 9/11 masterminds like Khalid Sheik Mohammed and Ramzi Binalshibh, whose captures represent two of the biggest U.S. triumphs to date, the network has opted for smaller local operations that are hard to detect and need less elaborate planning.

This marks a forced step back from spectacular attacks within the United States, even if Washington remains the chief enemy.

"It's smaller guys, carrying out smaller acts...They are constrained. They have to find new ways, and they are very innovative," said David Claridge, managing director of Janusian Security Risk Management in London.

"The goal now is to demonstrate that the U.S. is not winning the war on terrorism, and that can be done in a number of ways. It doesn't have to only be done through spectacular terrorist attacks, it can be done through smaller, attrition-type campaigns."

Targets of such strikes in the past two years have included Tunisia, Bali, Kenya, Pakistan, Morocco and Saudi Arabia.

The deadliest was Bali, where nightclub blasts last October killed 202 people, mostly Western tourists. An Indonesian court on Wednesday sentenced a second Muslim militant to death for planning the attacks, blamed on al Qaeda affiliate Jemaah Islamiah.

Jemaah demonstrates how such offshoots are growing in maturity and striving to emulate the al Qaeda example. The proliferation of such groups also muddies the waters, making it hard to define where al Qaeda begins and ends.

"It depends what you mean by al Qaeda," said a western counter-terrorism official, asked to quantify the threat from the group.

While the core organization under Osama bin Laden had been severely weakened, there was still a very major threat from what he called "concentric circles of Islamists who subscribe to the same extremist ideology."

"Al Qaeda is not a homogenous, centrally run or controlled organization. It differs so much from classical terrorist groups, it's like trying to grasp running water," said Gorka.

"A lot of people who call themselves, or would like to call themselves, al Qaeda have never been to Afghanistan, have never been trained in al Qaeda training camps. They see themselves as sharing a similar set of values, and therefore they give the appearance of being part of the structure."

Claridge, who called Bush's words this week "complacent," said the issue was whether Washington sufficiently understood and could keep pace with the ways in which al Qaeda was mutating.

"The United States has been very successful in unraveling the past manifestations of al Qaeda; the question is whether it's successful in tackling future manifestations," he said.

Claridge, who called Bush's words this week "complacent," said the issue was whether Washington sufficiently understood and could keep pace with the ways in which al Qaeda was mutating.

"The United States has been very successful in unraveling the past manifestations of al Qaeda; the question is whether it's successful in tackling future manifestations," he said.

And just why, Mr. Claridge, should it be ONLY America's responsibility to thwart these creatures? Do you treasure your freedom Mr. Claridge?

Prairie

I think they hit Europe next. The Euroidiots have shown themselves to be weak and unwilling to defend their countries. An added bonus is that they would blame it on US policies anyway.

Europe's Muslim population is growing rapidly, and their constituency is shifting. I think this may explain some of France's difficulties in dealing with the US at the UN.

I don't know that al Qaeda thinks Europe is unsympathetic. Perhaps the more France panders, the safer they will become. Is France an active participant in the War on Terror?

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