So you are saying that the Iraqi terrorists are starting to adopt the remote-control and suicide tactics of the Chechen and Kashmiri terrorists?
Yes, I am saying that. Now this works for the terrorists in the short run. They know they can't go toe to toe with American infantrymen. Qaedamen were trained in half-assed camps in the Afghan highlands. The kind of training you saw in those videotapes was fine if you, as a Jihadi, were going off to fight Massoud and the Northern Alliance. Against American infantry, Rangers, and British troops? Not even a contest.
ALWAYS bet on an infantry unit against insurgents, especially if that unit has a seasoned senior noncommissioned officer anchoring it. A smart young lieutenant helps, but the secret is in the sergeants.
Al Qaeda and the Ba'athists don't have anything like this, and never will. Sending Al Qaeda up against innocent passengers in aircraft? That's doable. Sending them up against infantry? That's idiocy. I suspect that they have lost lots of people already, while others that have been taken into custody have been singing like canaries to avoid going to Guantanamo. AQ knows this, which is why they are utilizing that peaceful expression of Islamic piety-the car bomb. They are losing people, so they need to try something else.
But even this something else will decline in utility. Fewer and fewer Americans will be hanging out in Baghdad, as Iraqis replace them and the central government gets up and running. Car bombs work anywhere, of course, but they have a real utility in urban areas where lots of people are. Out in the sticks the shahid won't have the same impact against dispersed American soldiers.
This process will remove the targets Al Qaeda needs to burnish its credentials as First Among Equals in the Greek Fraternity world of the terrorist international. AQ is going to lose a lot of people as we start getting information from Iraqis for cash bounties. That's the entire plan, and I strongly suspect it will work.
We are counting on Al Qaeda and the Ba'athists to keep on keeping on.
Be Seeing You,
Chris