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Posted on 09/07/2003 9:33:20 AM PDT by Dog Gone
MIAMI -- Isabel strengthened from a tropical storm into the fourth Atlantic hurricane of the season today, but forecasters said it was still several days from reaching land.
Hurricane Fabian, meanwhile, was losing strength but gaining speed in the northern Atlantic, two days after plowing through Bermuda. Forecasters said the other major Atlantic storm, the tropical depression that passed over Florida Saturday, could strengthen back into Tropical Storm Henri.
At 10 a.m. CDT, Isabel had maximum sustained winds of 75 mph, just above the 74 mph threshold for a hurricane. The storm was 1,610 miles east of the Leeward Islands and moving west-northwest at about 10 mph.
Isabel was projected to stay over open waters for at least five days, said Richard Pasch, a hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
It was too early to tell whether it would affect the United States or the Caribbean, he said.
"It's something to keep an eye on. It's a long way away," said hurricane specialist Jack Beven of the hurricane center. "We'll just have to watch and see. It's a large system, it's in a favorable environment for development."
Hurricane Fabian was 360 miles south of Cape Race, Newfoundland, and moving northeast at 25 mph across shipping lanes in the north Atlantic.
Fabian's maximum sustained winds had dropped to 90 mph, down from the 120 mph winds that hit Bermuda on Friday. Forecasters expected it to dissolve and become extratropical by Monday as it moves over cooler waters.
Fabian, the first Category 3 hurricane to hit Bermuda in 50 years, shredded trees and sheered off roofs across the island chain. Four people whose cars were swept off a causeway were missing and feared dead.
The tropical depression that had been Tropical Storm Henri was about 145 miles southeast of Charleston, S.C., on Sunday with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph -- just below the 39 mph minimum threshold to become a tropical storm.
The Atlantic Hurricane season began June 1 and ends Nov. 30.
Most of Florida was spared heavy rain forecasters had believed Henri would bring Saturday, as the system weakened into a tropical depression and moved quickly across the peninsula.
Rainfall totals in most areas affected by Henri fell considerably short of the 6 to 12 inches forecasters said were coming to large portions of the state.
"It didn't dump as much rain as we thought it might," said hurricane specialist Jack Beven of the National Hurricane Center in Miami. "A lot of the rain stayed out in the Gulf and when the depression started moving, it moved much faster than we thought it would."
Out in the Atlantic, meanwhile, Bermuda islanders awoke to streets littered with tree limbs and overturned vehicles in the wake of Hurricane Fabian.
Florida's Gulf Coast had only scattered reports of streets being covered with a few inches of water. There were some reports of homes being flooded, but Charlotte County officials said most of that water was splashing into homes as cars navigated flooded streets.
The storm was responsible for at least two injuries Friday. A Lee County man, whose name and condition were not released, was struck by lightning. A Pinellas Park man, identified by Tampa police as Edgardo Pulido, 55, lost control of his hydroplaning pickup on rainslicked Interstate 275 in Tampa and crashed into a concrete wall. Pulido was in critical condition at Tampa General Hospital, officials said.
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(On a small display, scroll right.)
...ISABEL CONTINUING TO GAIN STRENGTH...COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE TONIGHT...
How about this view?
Western Atlantic water vapor.
I'll check-out my generator and chain saws tomorrow.
The initial motion estimate is 295/12. There has been some wobbling along the track the past 6 hours...which is typical of intense hurricanes. The NHC model guidance remains in good agreement on Isabel moving west-northwestward for the next 36 hours or so...and then turning more westward after that. However...the GFS and NOGAPS models maintain a west-southwestward motion after 48-72 hours. The reason for this more southerly track is not apparent in the model fields...so I am continuing to place less weight on that scenario at this time based on those models having a previous left-bias with Fabian. The official forecast track is nudged slightly north of the previous track through 36 hours...and then comes back on track after that. This is consistent with the global model consensus.
Isabel is 24 hours into a rapid intensification cycle...but rarely due such trends occur for more than 30-36 hours. Therefore...the current intensification trend is leveled off after about 12 hours or so. However...upper-level conditions are forecast to remain quite favorable throughout the forecast period...so Isabel could still reach category 4 intensity during the next 12 hours or so. After that...inner-core convection and eyewall dynamics will dictate any further intensity changes. However...the intensity forecast could easily be too low given that the outflow pattern is expected to continue to improve...the vertical shear is forecast to remain less than 10 kt...and Isabel will be moving over 28c and warmer SSTs.
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