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To: Dog Gone
"Me neither. This one is lined up to whack us somewhere."

I'll check-out my generator and chain saws tomorrow.

19 posted on 09/08/2003 7:15:45 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam
Isabel has continued its rapid intensification trend. The initial intensity is increased to 110 kt based on satellite intensity estimates of 115 kt from TAFB and AFWA...102 kt from SAB...and 113 kt/t5.9 3-hour objective Dvorak intensity estimates. The outflow remains very impressive and the overall convective pattern has also continued to improve.

 
The initial motion estimate is 295/12. There has been some wobbling
along the track the past 6 hours...which is typical of intense
hurricanes. The NHC model guidance remains in good agreement on
Isabel moving west-northwestward for the next 36 hours or so...and
then turning more westward after that. However...the GFS and NOGAPS
models maintain a west-southwestward motion after 48-72 hours. The
reason for this more southerly track is not apparent in the model
fields...so I am continuing to place less weight on that scenario
at this time based on those models having a previous left-bias with
Fabian. The official forecast track is nudged slightly north of the
previous track through 36 hours...and then comes back on track
after that. This is consistent with the global model consensus.

Isabel is 24 hours into a rapid intensification cycle...but rarely
due such trends occur for more than 30-36 hours. Therefore...the
current intensification trend is leveled off after about 12 hours
or so. However...upper-level conditions are forecast to remain
quite favorable throughout the forecast period...so Isabel could
still reach category 4 intensity during the next 12 hours or so.
After that...inner-core convection and eyewall dynamics will
dictate any further intensity changes. However...the intensity
forecast could easily be too low given that the outflow pattern is
expected to continue to improve...the vertical shear is forecast to
remain less than 10 kt...and Isabel will be moving over 28c and
warmer SSTs.

20 posted on 09/08/2003 7:19:56 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: blam
Translation:

This may be a Category 5 long before it decides where to make landfall. Nobody is paying attention to this yet.

5 days from now, that will be different. I hope.

21 posted on 09/08/2003 7:24:38 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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