I'll check-out my generator and chain saws tomorrow.
The initial motion estimate is 295/12. There has been some wobbling along the track the past 6 hours...which is typical of intense hurricanes. The NHC model guidance remains in good agreement on Isabel moving west-northwestward for the next 36 hours or so...and then turning more westward after that. However...the GFS and NOGAPS models maintain a west-southwestward motion after 48-72 hours. The reason for this more southerly track is not apparent in the model fields...so I am continuing to place less weight on that scenario at this time based on those models having a previous left-bias with Fabian. The official forecast track is nudged slightly north of the previous track through 36 hours...and then comes back on track after that. This is consistent with the global model consensus.
Isabel is 24 hours into a rapid intensification cycle...but rarely due such trends occur for more than 30-36 hours. Therefore...the current intensification trend is leveled off after about 12 hours or so. However...upper-level conditions are forecast to remain quite favorable throughout the forecast period...so Isabel could still reach category 4 intensity during the next 12 hours or so. After that...inner-core convection and eyewall dynamics will dictate any further intensity changes. However...the intensity forecast could easily be too low given that the outflow pattern is expected to continue to improve...the vertical shear is forecast to remain less than 10 kt...and Isabel will be moving over 28c and warmer SSTs.
This may be a Category 5 long before it decides where to make landfall. Nobody is paying attention to this yet.
5 days from now, that will be different. I hope.