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Isabel becomes hurricane in Atlantic
Associated Press ^ | September 7, 2003

Posted on 09/07/2003 9:33:20 AM PDT by Dog Gone

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1 posted on 09/07/2003 9:33:21 AM PDT by Dog Gone
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2 posted on 09/07/2003 9:36:29 AM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: Dog Gone
I'll be darned they named a hurricane after my mother.
3 posted on 09/07/2003 10:32:37 AM PDT by Dog
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To: Dog
By Friday she'll be making a mess somewhere.
4 posted on 09/07/2003 10:35:06 AM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: Dog Gone
It looks like it will be a wild Friday night in Puerto Rico.

(On a small display, scroll right.)

5 posted on 09/07/2003 3:57:42 PM PDT by SC Swamp Fox (Aim small, miss small.)
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To: SC Swamp Fox
Isabel currently has a very impressive outflow pattern and...
unfortunately...the global models are forecasting it to become even
better. By 36-48 hours... all of the global models except the UKMET
are forecasting more than 50 kt of outflow on the west side of
Isabel being drawn into an upper-level low located just northeast
of the Leeward Islands. A pattern like that can oftentimes lead to
rapid or explosive deepening. The SHIPS intensity model brings
Isabel up to 97 kt in 60 hours...but the official forecast is a
little higher since ships was low/slow with the intensification of
Fabian.
6 posted on 09/07/2003 4:01:46 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: Dog Gone
Impressive indeed.
7 posted on 09/07/2003 4:21:35 PM PDT by SC Swamp Fox (Aim small, miss small.)
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To: SC Swamp Fox
BTW, if you "Refresh" the page, the image I posted in #5 should update every half hour.
8 posted on 09/07/2003 4:51:56 PM PDT by SC Swamp Fox (Aim small, miss small.)
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To: Dog Gone; Dog
It looks like they have revised the projected track a bit northward, and a slower forward speed.
9 posted on 09/07/2003 8:07:46 PM PDT by SC Swamp Fox (Aim small, miss small.)
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To: Dog Gone
I don't like the way this one is tracking toward the Gulf.
10 posted on 09/07/2003 8:23:48 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam
I was thinking something similar. Almost every hurricane to hit the Carolinas skirts the eastern shore of Florida heading north and doesn't turn right until it reaches northern Virginia.
11 posted on 09/08/2003 5:39:46 PM PDT by SC Swamp Fox (Aim small, miss small.)
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To: Dog Gone; Dog; blam
It looks like it will be a wild Friday Saturday night in Puerto Rico.
12 posted on 09/08/2003 5:42:49 PM PDT by SC Swamp Fox (Aim small, miss small.)
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To: SC Swamp Fox
Looped Satellite view of the Atlantic.
13 posted on 09/08/2003 5:48:01 PM PDT by SC Swamp Fox (Aim small, miss small.)
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To: SC Swamp Fox
From National Hurricane Center Advisory #11:

...ISABEL CONTINUING TO GAIN STRENGTH...COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE TONIGHT...

14 posted on 09/08/2003 5:53:32 PM PDT by SC Swamp Fox (Aim small, miss small.)
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To: Dog Gone
Being in the Charleston, SC area, I'm definitely watching Isabel.
TD-14 is right behind but looks like it will track north.
15 posted on 09/08/2003 6:01:46 PM PDT by RightWinger
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To: SC Swamp Fox
I still don't like the looks of this one.
16 posted on 09/08/2003 6:19:29 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam
Me neither. This one is lined up to whack us somewhere.
17 posted on 09/08/2003 7:08:53 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: blam
I still don't like the looks of this one.

How about this view?

Western Atlantic water vapor.

18 posted on 09/08/2003 7:12:42 PM PDT by SC Swamp Fox (Aim small, miss small.)
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To: Dog Gone
"Me neither. This one is lined up to whack us somewhere."

I'll check-out my generator and chain saws tomorrow.

19 posted on 09/08/2003 7:15:45 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam
Isabel has continued its rapid intensification trend. The initial intensity is increased to 110 kt based on satellite intensity estimates of 115 kt from TAFB and AFWA...102 kt from SAB...and 113 kt/t5.9 3-hour objective Dvorak intensity estimates. The outflow remains very impressive and the overall convective pattern has also continued to improve.

 
The initial motion estimate is 295/12. There has been some wobbling
along the track the past 6 hours...which is typical of intense
hurricanes. The NHC model guidance remains in good agreement on
Isabel moving west-northwestward for the next 36 hours or so...and
then turning more westward after that. However...the GFS and NOGAPS
models maintain a west-southwestward motion after 48-72 hours. The
reason for this more southerly track is not apparent in the model
fields...so I am continuing to place less weight on that scenario
at this time based on those models having a previous left-bias with
Fabian. The official forecast track is nudged slightly north of the
previous track through 36 hours...and then comes back on track
after that. This is consistent with the global model consensus.

Isabel is 24 hours into a rapid intensification cycle...but rarely
due such trends occur for more than 30-36 hours. Therefore...the
current intensification trend is leveled off after about 12 hours
or so. However...upper-level conditions are forecast to remain
quite favorable throughout the forecast period...so Isabel could
still reach category 4 intensity during the next 12 hours or so.
After that...inner-core convection and eyewall dynamics will
dictate any further intensity changes. However...the intensity
forecast could easily be too low given that the outflow pattern is
expected to continue to improve...the vertical shear is forecast to
remain less than 10 kt...and Isabel will be moving over 28c and
warmer SSTs.

20 posted on 09/08/2003 7:19:56 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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