Wanted: Someone, anyone to run against U.S. Sen. Harry Reid for Senate.

Las Vegas Review Journal ^ | August 26, 2003 | Steve Sebelius

[Pubbie]

Wanted: Someone, anyone to run against U.S. Sen. Harry Reid for Senate in 2004. Must be a Republican, preferably rich and willing to spend his or her own money, maybe lots of it.

The Nevada Republican Party hasn't yet gotten to that point, but with Monday's formal announcement by U.S. Rep. Jim Gibbons that he won't challenge Reid for the senior senator's seat next year, the party has to find someone soon for the job. Who knows? If the candidate has enough gravitas, he may get a nice ride on Air Force One.

That Gibbons passed on the race was something pundits had speculated about for days leading up to the actual announcement, and by late last week, political e-mail newsletters and television reports were definitively saying that Gibbons wouldn't do it.

Why? The congressman's patriotic speech (preceded, it must be noted, by an aide who stacked American flags on the floor until corrected by the Grand Dame of Republican politics and chairwoman of the state party, Lia Roberts) was centered on three words: duty, honor and country. He could have just as well have hit on seven more: Money, name recognition and a long campaign ... all of which had to be factors in Gibbons' decision to pass on a challenge to Reid in favor of another House term.

Certainly, Gibbons had very little to lose, save for his House seat. He could (and probably will anyway) come back in 2006 to run for whichever office U.S. Sen. John Ensign does not seek, whether that's governor or senator. Gibbons' initiative requiring education to be funded before any other part of the budget will be on the ballot in 2004 and 2006, so he'll have a vehicle to keep him in front of voters. And a loss, even a humiliating one, has never been the kiss of death in Nevada politics. (Just ask Reid, who lost a bid for Las Vegas mayor before going on to become a United States senator.)

Surely, Reid is relieved, so much so that his saccharine-sweet statement made no reply to Gibbons' repeated assertion that, if Gibbons had gotten into the race, he'd have beaten Reid. "Nevadans want a senator that will not be an obstructionist to President Bush and his judicial nominees," Gibbons said, taking aim at Reid's role in the Democratic filibuster of some Bush judge picks. "Nevada is changing. Nevada wants a senator who will represent their values, not Washington, D.C., gridlock."

In reply, Reid only said that Gibbons "is a strong and important member of Nevada's congressional delegation" and the senator and his wife, Landra, "count Jim and Dawn Gibbons as friends." One wonders when the next barbecue will be.

But Gibbons says he didn't want a long campaign to distract him from the duties of homeland security. He co-authored the bill that created the Department of Homeland Security, and chairs an important subcommittee on the newly created Homeland Security Committee in the House. "This is an important and critical time and it's not the time to be a freshman U.S. senator," Gibbons declared.

Tell that to freshman U.S. Sen. John Ensign, who tells anyone standing still for more than 30 seconds about his strong friendship with Reid. Suffice to say that Ensign would not have been a great help to Gibbons had he decided to enter the race.

So who will enter the race on the GOP side? Two prime candidates -- state Controller Kathy Augustine and state Sen. Randolph Townsend -- took their names out of the running Monday. Augustine said she would have been more interested in Gibbons' House seat, and Townsend said he wanted to continue working on state issues rather than make a run, at least this year.

That still leaves Secretary of State Dean Heller, who admits he's not closing the door on the race just yet. Heller, a political reformer who's pragmatic when it comes to elections, candidly says his decision will hinge upon whether he can raise the money necessary to mount a credible bid against Reid. "In Nevada, we don't have elections. Is this going to be another auction?" he asks. "The question is, are my (fund-raising) prospects any better" than Gibbons'?

"I would be playing the ultimate underdog card," Heller added, "and I revel in that idea."

In addition, Richard Ziser, who headed up the Coalition for the Preservation of Marriage that successfully blocked gay marriage in Nevada, says he's seriously considering the race, and has scheduled a news conference for Wednesday to announce his intentions.

Also Monday, real estate developer Jack Woodcock, an owner/broker at Prudential Americana Group Realtors, said he was "a strong maybe, closer to yes than ever before." Woodcock, who serves on the board of the National Association of Realtorsz and describes himself as a "business-oriented conservative," says he's willing to put at least $250,000 of his own money into the race. That has to be music to national Republicans' ears, since Reid is reporting at least $3.1 million in the bank and the hour grows late to raise money for what could be a pricey contest.

It could be that the Republicans will have an answer to their ad sooner than they think.

[w_over_w]

Wayne Newton?

[Pubbie]

"Also Monday, real estate developer Jack Woodcock, an owner/broker at Prudential Americana Group Realtors, said he was "a strong maybe, closer to yes than ever before."

Heller probably won't jump in because he won't be able to compete with Reid money-wise.

Woodcock is our best chance to take down Reid because he said he's willing to put up $250,000 just to get his campaign off the ground.

He could also raise more money than Heller because of his business connections.

[Pubbie]

[alloysteel]

One litle nugget in this piece, Nevada does not have elections, they have auctions, rings so solidly true, it should almost have been the title. I lived out there for five years, and saw the representation of the state change from largely Democrat to mostly Republican, but it was relatively wealthy Democrats being replaced by Republicans who had more money. Part of the difference was that the Democrats were largely bankrolled from sources out of state, while the Republicans made their money elsewhere and put up their own cash when they made a bid for office.

[Pubbie]

You think Reid could be taken down by the Wealthy Realtor Woodcock?

I think Woodcock could do it because:

1) Running statewide in Nevada ensures that even a mediocre Republican will get at least 47%, ie, the Republican only has to worry about winning over an extra 4% of the electorate.

2) Woodcock, thanks to his wealth and business connections, can raise and spend enough money to at least keep him competitive against Reid's money machine.

[Clintonfatigued]

I still hinge my hopes on Secretary of State Dean Heller. Please remember, Heller has a history of winning statewide elections by wide margins, and has a base in Democratic-leaning Carson City. In addition, Reid always polls less on election day than he does in the public opinion polls. Even in 1992, when he didn't get strong opposition, Reid won both the primary and general elections by considerably less than expected. And Karl Rove and George W. Bush will make sure that Heller has enough money to get his message out. Conservatives in Nevada should be calling Heller encouraging him to run.

[Pubbie]

Heller is an interesting candidate.

If Heller thinks he can get decent fundraising then he probably will run, but he didn't sound too enthusiastic about entering the race.

You are right that Reid isn't terribly popular in Nevada but he is very Powerful in the state, and therefore he will be able to far outraise Heller.

I still have to prefer Woodcock just because his money and business connections will keep him more competitive with Reid.

I don't think Heller could keep up with Reid.

[fieldmarshaldj]

"Woodcock is our best chance to take down Reid because he said he's willing to put up $250,000 just to get his campaign off the ground."

He's going to need 20 TIMES that amount to begin to match Reid. Against Ensign in '98, Reid spent $5 million (Ensign spent $3.5 mil -- In '00, Ensign spent $4.9 million to win). I wouldn't be surprised (now as a Senate Ass't Leader) to see Reid rake in $7.5 million. Woodcock needs to realize that if he's serious, he's going to have to raise an obscene amount of money to take this seat. Another strike against Woodcock -- no individual since Mollie Malone in '46 has ever won a NV Senate seat without prior electoral experience. That's why Gibbons was the perfect fit to take the seat. :-(

[Pubbie]

"He's going to need 20 TIMES that amount to begin to match Reid. Against Ensign in '98, Reid spent $5 million (Ensign spent $3.5 mil -- In '00, Ensign spent $4.9 million to win)."

The $250k is just to get his campaign up and running.

That's also $250k more than Dean Heller has right now.

"Woodcock needs to realize that if he's serious, he's going to have to raise an obscene amount of money to take this seat."

I disagree that Jack needs a boatload of money, Woodcock only has to raise enough money to stay competitive, my guestimate is that he could run an effective race by raising only $4.5 million for the entire campaign.

But regardless, he'd better officially jump in the race soon if he wants to do some serious fundraising.

"Another strike against Woodcock -- no individual since Mollie Malone in '46 has ever won a NV Senate seat without prior electoral experience."

Yes but there are other factors that work in his favor:

1) Howard Dean will probably be the nominee for President, and Dean will get blown out by Bush in Nevada. Bush will easily get at least 57% of the Nevada vote against Dean - and therefore it will require a TON of ticket splitting in Nevada for Reid to survive a challenge from a decent GOP candidate.

2) Reid is much too liberal for the state he represents, and his voting record will be very easy for Woodcock to attack.

3) Reid is despised by Nevada Conservatives and this will make a GOTV efforts easier for Woodcock.

4) Woodcock has more business connections than Heller does.

"That's why Gibbons was the perfect fit to take the seat."

Yeah Gibbons really screwed everything up didn't he? If he wasn't going to run then he should have said so in the Spring so that other candidates could get their organizations together.

[JohnnyZ]

I don't think Heller could keep up with Reid.

I think he would be provide a fine contrast, and the 'underdog' angle he's working is definitely a good move. Here's what I like about a Heller-Reid race:

Heller is young (41?), moreover youthful, and fun. He's Much closer to the profile of the population that has been streaming into Nevada for the last decade than is Reid or Woodcock. That makes a good contrast for Heller, and people will be motivated to vote for a fresh face rather than stodgy old (64) Harry Reid.

[steplock]

Why rich? Have Nevadans never heard ov volunteerism? The real version, not the govt version where you get paid.

Grass Roots can wipe out the best in high dollar tv lies! people can do their own posters, call in the talk shows, run web sites, write letters, get out and TALK!

It's time to take the country back!

[fieldmarshaldj]

"The $250k is just to get his campaign up and running. That's also $250k more than Dean Heller has right now."

I lean to Heller in this only because of his prior electoral experience, but whomever is the nominee will need that fortune, as I said.

"I disagree that Jack needs a boatload of money, Woodcock only has to raise enough money to stay competitive, my guestimate is that he could run an effective race by raising only $4.5 million for the entire campaign."

Sure, he could win by spending slightly less than Reid, but not too much. If Reid spends $7 mil and Woodcock $4.5 mil, Reid wins, and it's that simple. Same with my state in the Governor's race. If Congressman Van Hilleary could've matched or just gotten within a decent distance of Bredesen's $$, he could've won.

"But regardless, he'd better officially jump in the race soon if he wants to do some serious fundraising."

No argument there.

"Yes but there are other factors that work in his favor: 1) Howard Dean will probably be the nominee for President, and Dean will get blown out by Bush in Nevada. Bush will easily get at least 57% of the Nevada vote against Dean - and therefore it will require a TON of ticket splitting in Nevada for Reid to survive a challenge from a decent GOP candidate."

I hate to do it, but I can puncture another hole in the argument. Bush, Sr. carried NV in 1988 by a whopping 21% (59% to Dukakis's 38%), and incumbent GOP Sen. Chic Hecht even outspending Gov. Dick Bryan, lost by 4%.

"2) Reid is much too liberal for the state he represents, and his voting record will be very easy for Woodcock to attack."

Of course, everyone running against him since 1974 has pointed that out, and he only lost just that first time (to Paul Laxalt). Now he has the added bonus of telling NV that as Minority Whip, he can bring home more of the bacon (and if Daschle is defeated, he might become Leader, an effective argument Daschle used in SD with his races, and with Tim Johnson's).

"3) Reid is despised by Nevada Conservatives and this will make a GOTV efforts easier for Woodcock."

Though any Republican running a half-decent campaign is guaranteed a minimum 40% of the vote in NV for the Senate.

"4) Woodcock has more business connections than Heller does."

A positive if he can raise a ton of money as a result. Surely Reid also has his business connections, too. But one unknown in this, what is Woodcock's personality like ? How is he as a campaigner ? At least with Gibbons, we could handicap him. That's the problem with these folks that come out of the non-political world, unless you know them personally, it's hard to judge how they'll perform in contests such as this.

"Yeah Gibbons really screwed everything up didn't he? If he wasn't going to run then he should have said so in the Spring so that other candidates could get their organizations together."

No disagreeing there. Gibbons's conduct in all of this could very well cost us the seat. You don't screw around with important contests such as this just to satisfy an ego trip.

[Pubbie]

"Heller is young (41?), moreover youthful, and fun."

Good point, but Heller sounded very lukewarm to the idea of running.

He's said that If he thinks he can get decent fundraising he may do it - but I don't think he will because he can't keep up with Reid's fundraising.

[Pubbie]

"Sure, he could win by spending slightly less than Reid, but not too much. If Reid spends $7 mil and Woodcock $4.5 mil, Reid wins, and it's that simple. Same with my state in the Governor's race. If Congressman Van Hilleary could've matched or just gotten within a decent distance of Bredesen's $$, he could've won."

There are many other examples of people winning despite being outspent.

For example, bush Senior lost to Clinton despite the fact that Bush outraised Clinton.

I also think Woodcock could raise over $4.5 million in donations (Not including what he puts in from his own bank account)

"I hate to do it, but I can puncture another hole in the argument. Bush, Sr. carried NV in 1988 by a whopping 21% (59% to Dukakis's 38%), and incumbent GOP Sen. Chic Hecht even outspending Gov. Dick Bryan, lost by 4%."

Again that's just one example, The 2004 Bush bounce will put Reid at a major disadvantage; granted it doesn't guarantee Reid will loose, but it will present a formidable challenge.

"Now he has the added bonus of telling NV that as Minority Whip, he can bring home more of the bacon (and if Daschle is defeated, he might become Leader, an effective argument Daschle used in SD with his races, and with Tim Johnson's)."

Daschle saved Tim Johnson's Senatorial bacon by playing the "Keep Daschle as Majority Leader" card.

Being "Minority Leader" isn't going to help Daschle much in SoDak, that's why Daschle has been running early ads and acting paranoid.

I don't think an economically important state like Nevada is going to care too much about keeping Reid "Minority Whip".

"Though any Republican running a half-decent campaign is guaranteed a minimum 40% of the vote in NV for the Senate."

Agreed - but it's more like a 47% minimum for a normal GOP candidate.

"positive if he can raise a ton of money as a result. Surely Reid also has his business connections, too."

He can raise more than Heller can, and I don't think Heller will run because of the $ issue.

"But one unknown in this, what is Woodcock's personality like ? How is he as a campaigner ? At least with Gibbons, we could handicap him. That's the problem with these folks that come out of the non-political world, unless you know them personally, it's hard to judge how they'll perform in contests such as this."

I admit that's Woodcock's biggest weakness - that he is a politically unknown quantity.

Ideally we would be able to run a candidate with Heller's experience and Charisma, and Woodcock's bank account and financial connections.

But since Heller is unlikely to run, Woodcock is our best shot, and if he runs at least a financially competitive campaign, it may allow the GOP to win in other Senate races.

"No disagreeing there. Gibbons's conduct in all of this could very well cost us the seat. You don't screw around with important contests such as this just to satisfy an ego trip."

At least the RINO ex Governor Jim Edgar made his decision not to run early, so that people like Jack Ryan got their campaign's organized in time - now in Nevada, we're racing against the clock and will likely have to rely on a politically untested candidate just because of fundraising issues.

:(

[Rubber Duck]

Is there a wealthy Mormon Republican? From what I know of Nevada politics, Mormons play a pivotal role like Jews in New York (each is about 18% of the electorate). But they are the mirror of Jews in voting, something like 3-1 or 4-1 Republican. So it would appear Reid squeaks by only because enough Mormons vote against their normal party habits to elect one of their own. Find a Mormon Republican (or even one so well-liked by them such as former Senator Paul Laxalt) and Reid should get his retirement. Is this about your take?

[Pubbie]

I don't believe Woodcock is a mormon - and he's the one who's most likely to run (I don't know about Heller, but even if he is Mormon, he's unlikely to run.)

However; although Woodcock isn't a mormon, he can attack Reid on neglecting Mormon values ie Reid's stance on social issues, such as Vouchers and Abortion.

[fieldmarshaldj]

"There are many other examples of people winning despite being outspent. For example, bush Senior lost to Clinton despite the fact that Bush outraised Clinton."

Oh, sure.

"I also think Woodcock could raise over $4.5 million in donations (Not including what he puts in from his own bank account)"

He'll need to.

"Again that's just one example, The 2004 Bush bounce will put Reid at a major disadvantage; granted it doesn't guarantee Reid will loose, but it will present a formidable challenge."

Well, I'm trying to analyze the race through the prism of Nevada political dynamics. One other thing I don't know is what the approval % of Reid's is. In the '88 contest, Chick Hecht, who was a fairly decent Senator with no scandal to my knowledge (though he had to endure the humiliating treatment at the hands of the national media of calling him all sorts of names ("utterly ineffective" and nonsense as such), though I think the real problem they had with him was that they couldn't tolerate a Conservative Jew serving in the Senate), did have to face the popular Governor Dick Bryan (who was smack dab in the middle of a term, and at least to his credit, he rose to the occasion when his party asked him to run. I won't mention other GOP names who couldn't do that since we know who they are), but Bryan's popularity trumped Bush Sr's coattails. Mind you, if it's an embarrassing blowout on par with "the big one", that being Nixon's 64-36% win over McGovern in '72, it could help sweep him in (as it did with the recently deceased David Towell that year, but he had the added bonus of having liberal 'Rat Jim Bilbray defeat old-line DINO Walter Baring in the primary, and Baring supported Towell -- Bilbray, of course, would make a comeback a dozen years later by taking Reid's House seat before his final defeat at the hands of John Ensign in '94), but I would suspect many 'Rats will be directed to wage their own campaigns separate of the Presidential (as the GOP was forced to do in disassociating itself with Dole's losing race to keep control of Congress in '96). Reid's no dummy and I don't think he'll allow himself to be linked to Dean, but that's just my gut.

"Daschle saved Tim Johnson's Senatorial bacon by playing the "Keep Daschle as Majority Leader" card. Being "Minority Leader" isn't going to help Daschle much in SoDak, that's why Daschle has been running early ads and acting paranoid."

I think it doesn't hurt, though. He still has the capacity to win a similarly narrow race as Johnson did (however dubious). If Thune is absolutely committed to this (not like his half or three-quarter-hearted committment last time), he's going to still have to fight like hell. Daschle, assuming he doesn't drop his reelection bid, ain't just gonna roll over.

"I don't think an economically important state like Nevada is going to care too much about keeping Reid "Minority Whip".

But if it appears we won't make the gains expected, Reid could argue (if it appears Daschle will go down or retire) that he could become Democrat Leader (with the possibility of becoming Majority Leader). That can't be discounted in a small state like NV having that sort of power.

"Agreed - but it's more like a 47% minimum for a normal GOP candidate."

Well, I wouldn't say that high, but I wish I could. ;-)

"He can raise more than Heller can, and I don't think Heller will run because of the $ issue."

We'll see, I don't know.

"I admit that's Woodcock's biggest weakness - that he is a politically unknown quantity. Ideally we would be able to run a candidate with Heller's experience and Charisma, and Woodcock's bank account and financial connections."

Yup. At least in the case of businessman Herman Cain in GA, we know he's a powerful and electrifying presence and will have little problem going up against other politicians in the primary and general (hopefully !).

"At least the RINO ex Governor Jim Edgar made his decision not to run early, so that people like Jack Ryan got their campaign's organized in time - now in Nevada, we're racing against the clock and will likely have to rely on a politically untested candidate just because of fundraising issues."

Although I think all campaign spending limits should be done away with, it's kinda sad we won't have folks of more modest means with a potential to contribute much in public service that can come out of nowhere and win these offices. Too much we hear now, and more as the years pass is not about the quality of the candidate, but "how much money do you have or how much can you raise ?" That's a good argument for the supporters of public funding of candidates to make, but that's a whole other discussion...

[Pubbie]

We'll have to see, I don't think Heller will do it.

If, as appears likely, Heller won't run, it's Woodcock or bust.

If Heller does run, Woodcock will likely still run in the primary, and choosing between the two would be very difficult to do.

The plus side to a Heller-Woodcock primary, is that we would get a good idea of whether Woodcock is a decent campaigner, the downside is that it makes the two of them spend time fighting eachother.

This is a VERY bad situation! :(

[Pubbie]

I think Mr Woodcock has a great deal of potential because his Biography is quite impressive, and he has sort of rugged good looks; Unlike the beady-eyed weasel Reid:

http://www.jackwoodcock.com/aboutjackwhole.htm

Working in the fields of his family farm Jack Woodcock was a young boy full of dreams that took him far away from his small North Carolina town. As he tended the crops and milked the cows, he burned with a desire to discover the world outside his home in Atkinson that would make a difference in his life. Whenever someone in the community ventured away and returned, there was Jack sitting up front avidly listening to their tales of adventure. "I knew I wanted to explore the world so I could tell my own great stories," says Jack.

His small town school housed all 12 grades and when his senior class of 18 students graduated, Jack was voted "Most Likely to Succeed" and "Most Courteous and Polite." Even at their young age, his class knew that Jack's aspirations and "Southern Gentleman" manner were going to take him far.

Striking Out On His Own

He joined the Air Force at 17 and went on a four-year tour in Germany and The Netherlands. Jack's childhood dreams were quickly becoming reality. He was later assigned to the Pentagon where he was with the Command and Control of Communication for the president's plane, Air Force One.

However, it was during the late '60s and early '70s that Jack truly grew up when facing life-threatening situations as he served three years in Vietnam. His courage was tested, his heart tormented, but Jack found an inner strength that helped his positive outlook evolve. He was awarded two Air Force Commendation Medals and a Bronze Star for Meritorious Combat Service. "It was there that I learned a lot about life and death, and everything imaginable in-between," says Jack. "I was proud to be an American then and even more so now."

Experiences to Last a Lifetime

The Air Force opened many doors for Jack, teaching him discipline, honor and resiliency. But what he will be ever grateful to the military for is bringing him to Nellis Air Force Base in Las Vegas. Moving here in 1971, Jack knew he had come upon a city that was on the brink of something great. And he was prepared to grow with it.

Honorably discharged from the Air Force, Jack searched for a career where he could continue to be a positive force in people's lives. He chose real estate.