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Bush Looks to Stem Manufacturing Job Loss
AP ^ | 9/1/2003 | SCOTT LINDLAW

Posted on 09/01/2003 12:33:45 PM PDT by sixmil

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To: All
RE: mfg percent of GDP

It seems the definitions have been changed. "The redefinition of computer output was a crucial factor in driving the manufacturing revival of the late 1990s. . . Without the quality imputations to the real value of computers, this increase in the manufacturing share [of GDP] would not have been measured."

Gordon R. Richards, NAM testifing before the Subcommittee on the Census Committee on Government Reform U.S. House of Representatives On The quality of GDP data, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/about/test-grr.pdf

On can argue the significance in terms of, Well it's manufacturing ain't it? But it's misleading and confusing vis-a-vis traditional manufacturing of widgits. My guess is that the official of NAM I cited in a prior post is right about job loss and loss of capacity in traditional manufacturing while Mr. Linbaugh and Mr. Reynolds for whatever their reasons are less than truthful.

I'll defer to the experts but it seems to me there's more here than just a "constant" percent of GDP "proves" no one has lost a job and no manufacturing capacity has been lost.

41 posted on 09/01/2003 3:21:52 PM PDT by WilliamofCarmichael
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To: sixmil
A hefty tax on all imported goods would do wonderes for the US economy, and job growth. Too hell with NAFTA.
42 posted on 09/01/2003 4:31:38 PM PDT by chainsaw
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To: ARCADIA
No, I'm saying that if you gloomsters were right, there couldn't possibly be any jobs to "lose" today, because they were all gone in the Reagan years (when we "lost" them all to Japan) or in the 1990s when we "lost" them all to someone else. Yet our share of mfg. of GDP remains unchanged. Imagine that!

And, no, 4/5 of all new business starts do not, nor ever have, failed. The % is about 50, and always has been. But what is different today is that new starts are typically very small and stay that way to get out of regulations and taxes---they are called "micro businesses" and they are the fastest growing share of the U.S. business population (5 employees or less). Typically these employ a couple of family members or "consultants" who do not get health or taxes paid for them, but who can make pretty good money.

And they are a significant share of the jobs "lost" that actually haven't disappeared, but have transformed.

43 posted on 09/01/2003 4:53:38 PM PDT by LS
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To: LS
China controls about as much of our mfg. dollar as the Arabs controlled American real estate in the early 1980s when there was a paranoia about the Arabs "buying up" American land. They peaked at .001%

That statement is so ridiculous. It is the statement of a man who does not work in manufacturing. It is the statement of a man who doesn't have a clue. BTW the Arabs and Japs couldn't tow our land back to Japan and Saudi Arabia. The Chinese, Mexicans and Indian have got our factories now. And we paid for them.

Rush is right. We are not exporting toymaking/trinket making jobs to China. Period.

Your statements are so convoluted I can't make heads or tails of them. What side of this issue are you on? You are right we are not exporting toy/trinket making jobs. We are exporting heavy industry. When we ordered an injection mold that we couldn't make in house from a tool making firm in Ohio, it arrived from CHINA. That was a wake up call. When practically all the mills and machine tools are made in China that is a wake up call. All our castings come from China (and they are beautiful). (The Indian castings were for shit.) Our steel . . . . (China and Japan) Electronics (Malaysia).

Fine. Explain to me when these jobs "came back."

People were layed off in 91 - 92 because of demand. The factories were still here. The factories are in China, India, and Mexico now. These jobs are not coming back period.

44 posted on 09/01/2003 6:07:02 PM PDT by Nov3
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To: Lessismore
Over the 1991-2002 period, the unemployment rate in manufacturing rose to 7.8 percent in 1992 and fell to 3.6 percent in 2000, then jumped to 5.2 percent in 2001 and 6.7 percent in 2002. The overall unemployment rate in 2002 was 5.8 percent.

Most of these people gave up on getting a good job and work in the "service sector" now. That is why the rates went down.

45 posted on 09/01/2003 6:10:52 PM PDT by Nov3
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To: LS
And they are a significant share of the jobs "lost" that actually haven't disappeared, but have transformed.

Yeah from high paying manufacturing jobs that were creating wealth into burger flipping, insurance selling, car detailing, gutter cleaning, lawn care jobs. Sheesh you are clueless if you think this is good.

46 posted on 09/01/2003 6:12:26 PM PDT by Nov3
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To: Archangelsk
"What is today, 'I'm right and everyone else is wrong,' day?"

Queue Irving Berlin:

Did you see my lit-tle Jim-my march-ing,
With the sol-diers up the av-en-ue?
There was Jim-my just as stiff as starch,
Like his Dad-dy on the sev-en-teenth of March.

Did you no-tice all the love-ly la-dies,
Cast-ing their eyes on him?
It made me glad, To gaze at the lad;
Lord help the Kai- ser if he's like his Dad.

Were you there, and tell me, did you no-tice?
They were all out of step but Jim.
47 posted on 09/01/2003 9:24:44 PM PDT by Tauzero (My reserve bank chairman can beat up your reserve bank chairman)
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To: governsleastgovernsbest
Wow - that's what I call a big government approach that would make Hillary Clinton proud! And who says a zero trade deficit is desirable? So long as we have the strongest economy in the world, it will be natural for us to import more goods and services from around the world than we sell to other, less rich, countries.

Nothing big government here. Big government is big spending. Big spending is what leads to big taxing. I would never have a tax increase without cutting another tax at least as much.

We know that trade surpluses are bad in the long term. It's inefficient; just look at Japan and Germany. We are now starting to admit the trade deficits have their problems, unemployment and wage erosion to name a couple. What I am suggesting is to find a happy medium with the advantages of both. Have a control system where the tariff rate floats in order to keep as close to possible to 0% trade deficit/surplus.

I don't get why it is natural for a rich country to import more (as a percentage). Can it not produce enough to supply itself? That would be a weird argument since we currently feed a large portion of the world.

A tariff consists of a tax on domestic consumers, by the way.

An indirect tax for most people. It's certainly a lot easier than paying the income tax, and a lot less frequent. Something has to be taxed, and tariffs are a lot easier to deal with.

Thanks for the article. I have read some Limbaugh, but he is much better on the topic of law, instead of policy. Here is where his argument broke down for me:

"Buyers of such products would have extra money to spend on other things. The demand for other items would go up, as would employment in enterprises producing those items. Of course, it would take time to absorb the now unemployed steelworkers. However, to balance that effect, workers in other industries who had been unemployed would find jobs available. There need be no net loss of employment, and there would be a gain in output because workers no longer needed to produce steel would be available to produce something else."

Up to this point he was talking facts, now he is injecting theory which sounds logical. But the reality is that steel workers did not become software engineers. Maybe a couple did, but their jobs just got shipped off to India, or a Chinese national was imported to do their job instead. I know you guys are supply siders, but what about demand? It is the other half of the equation. Where is demand when you have perpetual unemployent?

48 posted on 09/01/2003 11:48:59 PM PDT by sixmil
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To: governsleastgovernsbest
Too bad the Chinese don't think the same way you do...
49 posted on 09/01/2003 11:50:52 PM PDT by maui_hawaii
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To: governsleastgovernsbest
We can keep taxes light. Thats fine. I say we cut taxes even.

Give the people that import so much stuff the same deal they have had in the past...a 35-40% corporate income tax rate.

For those who source from the US, give them a 15-20% corporate income tax rate.

Its a tax cut.

You gonna complain about that too???

50 posted on 09/01/2003 11:54:31 PM PDT by maui_hawaii
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To: sixmil
I agree, but I also think there is a lot that government can do to kill jobs like the unilateral free trade policy we have now. I'd like to see tarriffs raised until the trade deficit is zero and stays there, along with corresponding cuts on income and business taxes. Eventually we are going to have to admit that there is no benefit (just the opposite actually) to trading any more freely than everyone else does. Even with the WTO, we are not able to get everyone to play along, so we should develop a policy that is not dependent on how others play the game.

Definately deserving of a BUMP.

WTO, particularly Doha is nothing more than welfare.

51 posted on 09/01/2003 11:57:06 PM PDT by maui_hawaii
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To: caltrop
Exactly.

Its sickening.

I want to see (not just hear noise) some action. I want to see action that will bite large corporate special interests in the ass...

52 posted on 09/01/2003 11:59:24 PM PDT by maui_hawaii
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To: sixmil
What ever happened to this branch of the government?
53 posted on 09/02/2003 12:03:07 AM PDT by maui_hawaii
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To: sixmil
PDF file

A Mr. Faryar Shirzad is already the head of the agency with the [empty] slogan of "Safeguarding American Industries and Jobs against Unfair Trade"

ITA

What in the hell new is going to come of all this? Not a damn thing I don't think. Looks a bit like ass kissing with no real substance to me.

I hope I am wrong.

We need policy shifts, not retraining or studies. I want GW to do something that Wal Mart really won't like (for once).

54 posted on 09/02/2003 12:25:13 AM PDT by maui_hawaii
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To: maui_hawaii
Your proposal to keep taxes light is to . . . raise taxes to 35-40% on corporations that import?

Who do you think pays those taxes? Corporations are owned by . . . people.

Also, let's assume you are a manufacturer of, let's say, aluminum products. Aluminum ore does exist in significant quantities in the US, forcing companies to import it. Would you prefer they be put out of business with your punitive tax rate, sending those jobs abroad?
55 posted on 09/02/2003 4:05:08 AM PDT by governsleastgovernsbest
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To: harpseal
ping
56 posted on 09/02/2003 4:07:32 AM PDT by FreedomPoster (this space intentionally blank)
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To: sixmil
Well this idea of a 'manufacturing czar' sounds like a real winner. After all, look how successful our 'drug czar' has been.
57 posted on 09/02/2003 4:10:16 AM PDT by Non-Sequitur
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To: Nov3
"High-paid manufacturing jobs."

I'm going to challenge you with this once, and only once, and if you can't answer it, then you have an obligation to shut up: WHEN DID THESE "JOBS" APPEAR?

1) During the late 1970s, in the Carter "malaise," when steel and autos shed more than 2 million jobs getting competitive?

2) In the Reagan years when the only tariffs we had were on Harley-Davidson competitors, SOME Japanese cars for about 3 years, and/or semiconductors? (BTW, we lost our entire semiconductor manufacturing during that time---with no ill result, because our people moved into the more VALUE-ADDED design and software development. Today, semiconductor mfg. is negligible as a share of computer value).

3) In the Clinton years, when taxes were increased and under NAFTA?

Ya'see, dude, there is Grand-Canyon-sized gap in your argument: if we have "lost" manufacturing jobs (we haven't), when did we HAVE them? If they existed, it was due to the "wonderful" Carter policies, or to the free trade of Clinton, or to the relatively tariff-free (high-deficit) Reagan years. Which is it? And you can't go before 1976, because we went into a BIG recession, where we LOST JOBS.

Now, as for "burger flippers," this argument gets old. I guess you don't consider software designers, architects, professors, lab technicians, chemists, biologists, robotics designers, high-tech service workers of ANY sort to have "good" jobs, because these are all "service" jobs. Yet, surprise, surprise, they are the very jobs that ADD ALL THE VALUE to the economy, NOT "manufacturing." Manufacturing accounts for less than 3% of a given piece of software, for example; design, more than 10%. And yes, I think this is VERY good, because we control all the design, all the content, most of the world's software market, virtually everything EXCEPT the meaningless chip production, which is the cheapest, least-value-added part of the process.

58 posted on 09/02/2003 5:58:17 AM PDT by LS
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To: Nov3
You have to do better than that. If the jobs were "laid off" in 1992, then they must have "come" under REAGAN, who had a free trade policy with all of our major competitors at the time. The only technology sales Reagan blocked was computers to the USSR. So you're telling me that all these manufacturing jobs "arrived" in the 1980s?

Then all those stories about the auto and steel workers being laid off were false?

59 posted on 09/02/2003 6:00:50 AM PDT by LS
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To: governsleastgovernsbest
Corporations already pay that tax rate. DO NOT use the word "raise" anywhere in this conversation. It is NOT a raise. You cannot "raise" what is already in place and has been in place for a LONG time.

The proposal is a cut and ONLY a cut. It would be a real rate and real dollar lowering of the current tax rates on corporations.

I would probably tailor it up a little bit, but by and large the corporations that import so much stuff will be left then as they are now.

60 posted on 09/02/2003 6:37:17 AM PDT by maui_hawaii
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