Pennsylvania’s Primary- Leadership Vs Lethargy?

I was driving down the Schuylkill Expressway yesterday. To my amazement, a Pat Toomey billboard practically came out and bit me at the Girard Avenue exit. Wow! A conservative politician advertising in the most liberal district in Pennsylvania? Right in the Philadelphia backyard of primary opponent Arlen Specter? Genius? Insanity? Both? Maybe. But it’s a subtle sign that cannot be overlooked, with a question that must be asked. In the coming Senate election, will Pennsylvania maintain the old back-room horse-trading mentality that has defined this region of America for a century, or take a chance on the conservative vision that has been sweeping America?

That answer lies in the stark comparison of the two Republican primary candidates.

Arlen Specter has converted mile wide, inch deep support into a political lifetime. His strange alliances and shifting stances have made him one of the Senate's most enigmatic characters. Specter has a reputation for working the middle. Actually, it’s more like “Wack-A Mole.” Whenever voters in one group pop up and grumble, Specter gives them something. When the other side complains, he gives them something else. He tells conservatives, “I might be untrustworthy on confirming conservative judges, but I’m big on defense.” He tells liberals “I might cut taxes sometimes, but I’ll deliver on abortion.” It may be a politically cynical tactic, but this “crazy quilt” of support has returned him 24 years in the Senate.

Pat Toomey, the two-term House rep from the Democrat Allentown area, takes almost the opposite political strategy. “I’m conservative, and my philosophy is the best thing for Pennsylvania and America.” Bam! Any questions? His expressway ad shows the heart and guts of a hungry up-and-coming politician willing to pick a fight wherever necessary. And why not? Toomey has the knack for gathering conservative support in traditionally Democrat areas and winning. His own district is classic Reagan Democrat, where Clinton and Gore cleaned up, yet Toomey won. Twice.

This contrast in candidate styles makes the Pennsylvania primary intriguing. To outsiders, Pennsylvania appears to be one of those classic Northeast states that claim to be fiscally conservative but socially liberal. Unfortunately, that concept has proven to be a paradox, like claiming you are a God-fearing, liquor swigging porn star. Though Pennsylvania isn’t exactly tax-and-spend, it’s more like tax-and-send. Working people resentfully ship their money off to ungrateful, unaccountable, liberal urban ratholes scattered across the state. Young and productive citizens are chased away in record numbers, costing two house seats. Yet Ed Rendell just became governor after driving 10,000 jobs and 100,000 people out of Philadelphia.

It hasn’t quite dawned upon enough Pennsylvanians that their proud political paradox has reached a crossroads. Do they embrace the continuing failed compromises to liberalism that cost so dearly? Or does Pennsylvania cleanse itself from the liberal bent that eats away at our foundation and retards our growth? Exactly when do we make that stand? And isn’t this the responsibility of Republicans?

Fresh from his National Review skewering, Specter’s checkered history is now certified. He blocked Robert Bork, yet rescued Clarence Thomas by skewering Anita Hill. He voted for…and against tax cuts. For…and against recent Bush judicial nominees. For and against school choice proposals. He sponsored hate-crimes legislation nobody seems to like. He’s perpetually listed in the Citizens Against Government Waste “Pig Book.” And he slipped through the fingers of accountability with his infamous “Not Proven” Scottish welch on Bill Clinton’s impeachment vote. But his Senatorial prowess is legendary, brokering and slipping countless Pennsylvania tidbits into legislation. And when he takes the Republican side, he has elevated credibility and clout, which he wields effectively.

But voters are rarely comfortable with the man. It’s not that Arlen Specter is dirty. It’s that he’s …well, he’s smarter than you, more devious than you, and more cunning than you…and you know it. And it worries you. Judging by his flip-flops, you also know his most important concern is his next election. That worries you, too. He deftly maneuvers through political minefields by straddling the shorelines. You might get a vague idea where Specter stands on one issue, but you really don’t know his ideology. He’s one of those politicians nobody likes very much but he cobbles together just enough support among various issue groups to pull out a victory. But straddling has a price, assuring mediocrity. If right is this way and wrong is that way, the middle is always halfway wrong. And that’s where Specter’s piecemeal support has often led his party and his nation. He’s like a bad painting hanging in your living room that stays up on the wall because it compliments your drapes and carpet.

Toomey, on the other hand, takes the role of a leader. “This way, folks…follow me.” Picture a Congressional Ronald Reagan, without the Hollywood face, but with exceptional intellect and an impatient drive for success. His strategy and philosophy are one in the same. There is no guesswork. He brings a 15 year business history ranging from investment banking to restauranteur, with a strong dose of international experience. That’s real world stuff. And a Quinnipiac University poll showed only 46% of Pennsylvanians would reelect Specter despite a 57% approval. While the door is open, the price for admission is high. Specter’s got a $9 million war chest plus a quarter century of high-profile service. Toomey’s only got $1.5 million and a 22% name recognition. However, Specter has his enemies. Club For Growth’s Steve Moore pledged a cool $1 million to Toomey. And quietly, conservatives are asking the Republican National Committee to protect them if they go with Toomey. The key is getting the name out across the state. The short side for Toomey: can he step up to the plate and deliver?

The old liberal joke describes Pennsylvania as “Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, with Alabama in between.” Actually, Pennsylvania is more like Cuba and France, with Silicon Valley in between. A successful conservative entrepreneurial and working class state carries around twin socialist millstones. Most of America has ceased the failed liberal experiments, and are now marching steadily back to the right. Instead of joining that march, Pennsylvania is predictably flailing about, having chosen the liberal Rendell for governor while sending conservative Rick Santorum and the mercurial Specter to the Senate.

If the Toomey-Specter race is intriguing, the state’s demographics are downright fascinating. Pennsylvania features a confusing mish mash of voters. Union carpenters live next to free-trading entrepreneurs. Urban hip-hoppers live a mile from Main Line stockbrokers. Clinton suburbanites drive the turnpike past Bush Second Amendment fans. How do you sort them out? Politicians have two choices: play the middle, or “follow me” leadership. And the Toomey-Spector race is exactly that.

However, the consequences aren’t all that clear. The election is like a “paper, rock, scissors” game. If Republicans give the nod to Specter, Democrat Joe Hoeffel (D-PA) will never take the middle in the main election, and Pennsylvania gets six more years of undependable but Republican representation. But if Toomey wins, he will have defeated one of the shrewdest politicians in America. That would create a straight-up ideological battle between Toomey’s middle-state conservative populism and Hoeffel, boasting a voting record more liberal than Ted Kennedy. To quote GOP strategist Cheri Jacobus, "all you need is 50% plus-one to win." Or lose.

Some day, if they want to avoid looking like California, Pennsylvanians must decide to move away from the perpetual compromise philosophy that has created national mediocrity, and move towards the conservative success that is changing the fabric of America. This primary is exactly that opportunity. In a state known for its strange voting history, this will be quite a battle for the hearts and minds of Pennsylvanians, who often forget to take them into the voting booth.

The one thing that has kept Specter from being an unmitigated disaster is his need to be re-elected--he couldn't afford to alienate conservatives too much. What I fear is that since this may well be his last term -- he's getting old -- he will have no reason if re-elected even to pay lip service to Republican policies, particularly in the areas of taxes and judge confirmation.

Remember, he started as a Democrat.

I agree. There is a strong possibility that this might be Specter's last election and who knows what he might do if he doesn't have to face voters again. Still, I am not totally sold on Toomey being a shoo-in in the general election.

"All I can say is I will vote for Toomey in the primaries."

Ditto that.

Jean,

Great post.

I would vote Toomey. I can be quite pragmatic politically, in terms of wanting a strong conservative candidate even if they're not the most conservative, but . . . when you're faced with Toomey and Specter, the choice is clear. Do the right thing, and vote Toomey.

The old liberal joke describes Pennsylvania as “Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, with Alabama in between.” Actually, Pennsylvania is more like Cuba and France, with Silicon Valley in between

..Or Massachusetts and California, with flyover country in between

"Though Pennsylvania isn’t exactly tax-and-spend, it’s more like tax-and-send. Working people resentfully ship their money off to ungrateful, unaccountable, liberal urban ratholes scattered across the state."

What a great assessment of our situation in PA! As a Pennsylvania voter, I'm very frustrated by the mushy politics, urban patronage jobs, and the sense that my vote just doesn't accomplish anything. While I'm delighted with Senator Santorum, I'm aggravated to tears that Senator Specter and Congressman Hoeffel represent me in Washington. Specter is without any apparent moral fiber and Hoeffel consistently takes the leftist line. Argghhhh. I haven't heard too much from Toomey in our area (Montco), but I'm keeping my ears open. I'm ready for a change.

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