GOP mods poised to raise cash, take seats [RINOs v. Club for Growth]

UPI ^ | 8/28/2003 | Kathy A. Gambrell

[JohnnyZ]

WASHINGTON, Aug. 28 (UPI) -- The water cooler conversation on Capitol Hill next week will likely center on how much money congressional lawmakers up for re-election have been able to pull in during their summer recess.

Republican moderates facing tough re-election races in 2004 will be kicking their campaigns into high gear and seeking help from including President George W. Bush and heavy political hitters such as senior presidential adviser Karl Rove.

While Democrats have publicly displayed their party infighting, Republicans, too, have had to battle an ideological split that some insiders fear could send some middle-of-the-road GOP voters across the political aisle.

Bush, who returns from a monthlong vacation and fundraising sweep across the Western and Midwestern states, faces hard questions about his pending re-election bid. The U.S. economy has failed to rebound with any fervor, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan appear to continue virtually unabated and details around some of his domestic policies such as the No Child Left Behind Act have begun slowly chipping away at his underlying public support, analysts say.

On the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue, all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are up for grabs while a third of the U.S. Senate, 34 seats, will be open. Once again the ever-important control of the House and Senate becomes vitally important for both parties.

Allan Lichtman, an American University professor and an expert on presidential and congressional campaigns, told United Press International that the tone of the 2004 elections will flow from the match-up between Bush and his challenger.

"It's going to be maximally contentious. Everything is going to flow from the presidential election, and if it's going to be (former Vermont Gov.) Howard Dean against George Bush, you are going to have a far more contentious election than you had in 2000," Lichtman said.

Groups like the Republican Main Street Partnership -- the coalition of Republican moderates -- plan to sink some $2 million into getting their candidates through the primary races and general election. The moderates -- a group of fiscally conservative, socially liberal Republicans -- have played key roles in some of the most contentious White House-Hill battles that have ensued over the past year.

Maine Sen. Olympia Snowe, a Republican, was lambasted for holding her ground on limiting Bush's tax cut proposal to $350 billion, far less than the $750 billion the president had sought. It was Snowe along with Sen. George V. Voinovich of Ohio who prior to the Easter recess brokered a deal with Senate Finance Committee Chairman Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, to hold the president's tax package to no more than $350 billion in return for support of next year's federal budget request.

That deal angered the White House and forced Bush into the White House Rose Garden shortly thereafter to agree to a compromise of at least $550 billion.

In the end, Snowe prevailed but not without plenty of heat from the GOP conservative organization Club for Growth. The group launched a media campaign against Snowe and Voinovich after which the White House stepped in and halted, sources in Washington told UPI. The well-funded, politically savvy Club for Growth has made it a mission to dislodge conservatives and liberals from their congressional seats.

Lichtman said that in the end Republicans usually pull together, mainly because the seats they gain depend on the geographical area in which they are located.

"In Maryland, in Representative Wayne Gilchrest's district, Republicans can't win with a hard-right conservative," Lichtman said.

Sarah Chamberlain Resnick, executive director of the Republican Main Street Partnership, said three races involving moderate congressional candidates stand out as possible problems in next year's elections. And as with every election, the final outcome may come down to simple dollars and cents.

Sen. Arlen Specter, R-Pa., who was elected to the Senate in 1980, faces a primary challenge from Rep. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., who has lambasted the incumbent as being out of step with conservatives. If Specter is re-elected, he will be the first Pennsylvanian to serve five terms in the upper chamber of Congress.

So far Specter has about $8.6 million cash on hand, according to his campaign finance report filed at the end of June 2003. Toomey had about $1.5 million in cash, as of June 30, 2003, his campaign finance report said.

Toomey told the Mercury Newspapers that he disagrees with Specter "on just about everything" and that Pennsylvania deserves "two real Republican senators." Toomey has called Specter a "liberal, pro-choice senator who consistently votes with Democrats."

Toomey has said his agenda is closer to that of the White House, however, Bush is backing the four-term senator. White House Chief of Staff Andrew Card traveled to Pennsylvania to raise money for Specter.

In Maryland, Rep. Wayne Gilchrest also faces a tough challenge. Sources on Capitol Hill say Gilchrist, who has served six terms, is being targeted by conservative GOP supporters for ouster from the seat he has held since 1991. State Sen. Richard F. Colburn is poised to take on not only Gilchrest in the primary race, the Republican leadership.

Gilchrest reported that he has $104,581 in cash on hand, according to his campaign finance report filed in June 2003. No campaign finance report was available for Colburn.

On his Web site, Colburn attacks the GOP leadership as endorsing an "'incumbent protection plan' to aid and support incumbents over challengers." He called that a "clear violation of party etiquette concerning primary contests and a totally unhealthy and undemocratic practice that discourages competitive elections and gives our party and unsavory reputation."

"Since filing for Congress, the Republican Party leadership has tried unsuccessfully to dissuade me from running. They do not want me to run against the current incumbent. I have tried to make it very clear to the Republican leadership that my bid for Congress will help revitalize and energize our party," Colburn says on his site.

Colburn also attacks Gilchrest's voting record, calling it the record of a liberal, not a conservative. He said Gilchrest voted against a constitutional amendment against flag burning, voted for an amendment to give Washington statehood and against the right to bear arms. He also said that Gilchrest favors partial-birth abortions.

Rep. Sherwood Boehlert, who represents New York's 24th District, will have top presidential aide Rove pounding the fundraising pavement next month in a $2,500-per-person weekend fundraiser in Cooperstown, N.Y. Boehlert could face David Walrath, a surgeon who came within less than 3,000 votes of unseating the incumbent in the 2002 primary. Boehlert reported in June 2003 that he had $347,943 in cash on hand, while Walrath's last campaign report filed at the end of 2002 showed he raised and spent slightly less than $100,000 in his last confrontation with Boehlert.

Other GOP moderate candidates being watched include Adam Taff of Kansas who ran against Rep. Dennis Moore, a Democrat, in 2002. Taff, who had a $1 million war chest, was defeated by Moore, who raised and spent nearly $2 million.

[JohnnyZ]

Well-written? No. Coherent? No. Interesting? Yes.

Boehlert and Gilchrest should both be history.

[JohnnyZ]

RINO primary ping.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Boehlert and Gilchrest should both be history."

---

Boehlert's district is, IIRC, the third most Republican district in NY after Reynolds' and Houghton's (Bush beat Gore there in 2000 by like 3%). If Walrath or another conservative takes him down, we will almost certainly hold the seat in November unless Boehlert manages to get on the ballot as the Independence Party nominee and steals votes from the GOP. Boehlert used to be the nominee for the now-defunct Liberal Party, and tried to get the Independence nod in 2002 but was succesfully prevented from doing so (I assume the issue had to do with signature-gathering, a process that is quite complex in NY). (BTW, Amo Houghton has no business either holding a seat as Republican as the one he holds. I hope he retires soon and a real Republican can win it.)

Gilchrest's CD was turned from quite Republican to extremely Republican in redistricting. Bush got 57% of the vote in the district in 2000, which is even more impressive when one considers the fact that he was held to only 40% in Maryland. There is no way that a conservative Republican would have any trouble in the general election in such a district.

Regarding Moore's CD in Kansas, Adam Taff will not beat Moore, since he isn't conservative enough to rally conservatives to the polls (Taff is pro-abortion). As I've written before, Kris Kobach is the only guy who can take down Moore.

[Kuksool]

The debate about Ahnuld for Governor, symbolizes the RINOS vs. Conservatives conflict in the GOP. If the GOP wishes to be a viable political party in the future, RINOS need to be slammed down in the primaries.

[Chancellor Palpatine]

Well-written? No. Coherent? No

I wondered what was bugging me.

[JohnnyZ]

Substituting two conservatives for those two moderates would be hugh for the House. Another two or three seats in Texas would help, too. It would really cut into Chris Shays' and Mike Castle's bargaining power.

The House has been pretty united on almost every issue but that's only after appeasing the Shays wing of the party.

We need a conservative House majority to drive legislation, especially since the Senate is and will continue to be soft until 2006 at the earliest.

[fieldmarshaldj]

UPI right series hugh potlical pieces. ;-)

[fieldmarshaldj]

UPI employ Helen Thomas. UPI bad.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Boehlert and Houghton both are serious embarrassments to the party and state. These guys aren't running in seats where you had to appeal to the far-left like the late RINO Bill Green did in his ultraleft Manhattan Silk Stocking district (and even pandering hard-left didn't keep him from losing the seat, perhaps for the forseeable future to Carolyn Malarkey (sic)).

As for MD, I say run Gilchrest for the Senate seat against Mikulski. If he wins, fantastic, if he doesn't we still hold his seat with a Republican (likely Conservative). Sorry to bust Allan Lichtman's bubble, but yes, Virginia, a "hard-right" *cough* (should read: mainstream) Conservative can win the Gilchrest seat, just like we did with Roukema's NJ seat. So much for liberal prognostications on who can win GOP seats.

As for the KS seat, which is always a pain for us (with the RINOs voting for the 'Rats when we run a Conservative, and the Conservatives not voting at all when we run a RINO), we actually have 3 choices now. Taff has the potential to win if there's a landslide for Dubya, but Kobach is preferable. The 3rd choice is a State Rep. named Patricia Lightner. Lightner is attempting to run a straight-out appeal to both factions (difficult, but not impossible), and I believe she is pro-life (to throw us Conservatives a bone), but pro-public ed spending (to throw the liberal RINOs a bone). She might be the best to appease both sides without compromising away the farm.
http://www.lightnerforcongress.com/

[AuH2ORepublican]

"These guys aren't running in seats where you had to appeal to the far-left like the late RINO Bill Green did in his ultraleft Manhattan Silk Stocking district (and even pandering hard-left didn't keep him from losing the seat, perhaps for the forseeable future to Carolyn Malarkey (sic))."

---

Green lost his seat in 1992 after redistricters added ethnic neighborhoods in Queens to his district. Paradoxically, these neighborhoods were far less Democratic than Green's Manhattan base, but the Queens voters were not social liberals like Green and his Manhattan constituents, and were not necessarily big fans of tax cuts, so Green had nothing to offer to the Queens voters. While Green beat Maloney in the Manhattan portion of the district, he got beaten like a rented mule in Queens and lost his seat. There is a lesson there for those who pay attention: a Republican who runs as a social liberal will forfeit blue-collar voters to the RATs, since most working-class Democrats agree with the RATs on economic issues but not necessarily on social issues. If Pennsylvania and Georgia Republicans understood this fact, Pat Toomey and Herman Cain/Mac Collins would trounce Arlen Specter and Johnny Isakson in their respective primaries.

BTW, I don't mind RINOs running in places where only social liberals can win, such as Manhattan or other liberal cities, but in most circumstances RINOs are as pernicious as DJ reminds us they are.


"As for MD, I say run Gilchrest for the Senate seat against Mikulski. If he wins, fantastic, if he doesn't we still hold his seat with a Republican (likely Conservative)."

---

Agreed. I would prescribe the same thing to Chris Shays in CT.


"Taff has the potential to win if there's a landslide for Dubya, but Kobach is preferable. The 3rd choice is a State Rep. named Patricia Lightner."

---

Given the fact that over 50% of voters as female, Kris Kobach has to be our first choice. Not only is he a solid conservative, I have witnessed how women come close to fainting when they are around him. If he gets the GOP nomination, Dennis Moore might as well start searching the want ads.

[JohnnyZ]

Dennis Moore and Kris Kobach pictured together; Moore is back row center, Kobach is back row left:

[AuH2ORepublican]

Here's Kobach's campaign site: http://www.kobachforcongress.com/

[JohnnyZ]

From Kris Kobach's website:

"He asks if I would support a collection of wacky Libertarian Party ideas' from unregulated pornography to international isolationism. He already knows my answer: No."

Likes limited government, does buy the liberaltarian crap. My kinda guy!

[JohnnyZ]

DOESN'T buy the liberaltarian crap.

[ForOurFuture]

About a week ago I heard Colburn speak at a small local GOP club. I would have to say that most were not impressed. He was clearly nervous (the crowd was only about 20) and is a rather bad public speaker. His message boiled down to his being a conservative and Gilchrest's being a liberal (no surprise). He dwelled on RKBA, flag burning, DC statehood, and abortion. He mentioned Gilchrest's support for McCain, and accused him of breaking multiple campaign pledges (abuse of franking, term limits). He was short on detail, repetitive, and poorly handled several questions. For a near general facsimile of what he said, go here: http://www.colburnforcongress.com/?page=ontheissues. Try to ignore the ridiculous spelling and grammar errors.

One question I went in intending to ask was "How do you attend to win?", considering two years ago a well-funded challenger attempted to the same thing and lost by 25 points. He answered this predictably, citing the district's consistent trend towards the right and the fact that Dave Fischer was an unknown lawyer from the Western Shore whereas he is a popular current officeholder with a local base (in 2002 he won his Senate seat by a greater than 2-1 margin) and common roots.

Interestingly enough, a member of Gilchrest's staff was in attendance. Being also the wife of a local state legislator who was there and presumably a regular attendee of the meetings, she had a legitimate enough pretense for being there to not be considered a 'spy'. Afterwards, she said that Colburn had actually done better than she expected. This made me and several others cringe. A joke was made that she need not worry about losing her job anytime soon.

So there's a firsthand account containing details not obvious from the article above. Despite all the negatives, I'm not entirely pessimistic. It will be interesting to see how it turns out.

[fieldmarshaldj]

That doesn't sound good. Citing a district is trending one way or another isn't necessarily enough. You have to be a very good candidate with good support and resources to knock down an incumbent, especially one who is somewhat popular (despite being a bit out of step) in his district. It's the reason why so many 'Rats held GOP districts for years pre-'95. They had far better candidates and resources.

[fieldmarshaldj]

...and of course, the most important, those 'Rats had the power of incumbency !