I think you are right. I know a number of female, black, Democrat voters who live in the DC area. They have not forgotten 9/11. They are very happy Bush has been a 'cowboy' and are all planning to vote for Bush, even tho it is killing them to think they will vote Republican.
One of my sisters teaches in a DC school. When they had to get their 3 day kit together to leave at the school (school children had to do the same), that was it for her. Party loyalty be damned; she feels she has to vote for Bush.