Well stated.
When we got reports about tho MO of insurgents ambushing an MSR in SE Baghdad, they were captured. When some guys tried smuggling a bunch of C-4 into our compound, they were captured. The next day, a hotel was bombed. Then, two weeks later, the UN building is hit. That jives well with what the author wrote above. When they tried to attack US forces they were thwarted, killed, or captured. Suddenly, soft targets started getting hit.