Fact is that poll or no poll the near 50% that voted for Davis and voting bloc that elected dems across the board in state wide races and has put in a majority dem assembly exists and will be voting to keep anyone with an R after their name from winning.
Cruz will get anywhere from 30 - near 50% of the vote.
Skewed poll or not, this is reality.
I am far more optimistic. Davis is more unpopular now, and even during the 2002 vote the election was seen by our left leaning press to be a choice between two unpopular alternatives.
Only the most die-hard liberals will bother to vote, many will not bother to vote for a canidate. By contrast the conservatives are reved up and anxious to get to the polls.