Posted on 08/25/2003 7:18:27 AM PDT by chiller
FEW THOUGHTS: As the risk of running afoul of Susan Pinkus, the Los Angeles Times' pollster, her survey raises lots of questions. (It's worth noting, by the way, that the results are based on a sampling of a wider pool of registered voters, not just likely voters. The PPIC and Field polls stick to likely voters.)
Oddity #1: Schwarzenegger has a positive press conference, runs an upbeat bio spot on statewide TV, and yet the Times reports that only a late surge in the poll brings him back to the same level as the Field and PPIC polls. One would assume that, after firming up his credentials as a fiscal conservative, Arnold would get more support from the right.
Oddity #2: Democrats had a week in which the dominant story line was intraparty division. Dianne Feinstein told Democrats to vote "no" on recall and skip the second half of the ballot; House minority leader Nancy Pelosi said to vote "yes" on Bustamante. Yet, according to Times, anti-recall sentiment is growing. It just doesn't add up.
Oddity #3: Bustamante received key endorsements from Democratic leadership groups, but also unveiled a budget "fix" that, if approved, amounts to the biggest tax increase in California history. Yet, in a survey adjusted for heavier-than-usual Republican turnout, Bustamante's poll numbers are nearly twice as strong as the PPIC's findings.
Oddity #4: The Times find that more than one-third of moderate Republican voters would support Schwarzenegger, and one-fourth would vote for Bustamante. This, even though the media have been telling voters night and day that Arnold is pro-choice and pro-gay rights--moderate to liberal on social issues. Bustamante's strength among Republicans sounds fishy: It's the kind of support you'd expect for a more familiar candidate, like Feinstein.
(Excerpt) Read more at weeklystandard.com ...
Originally I had heard that likely voters were polled, which puzzled the hell out of me since that would tend to give it some creditability, but Whalen says no, thank God.
Whalen's observations and analysis pours cold water on their poll which seemed to defy logic. No one should trust the LA Times to play it straight. Let me see their questions, and which areas the poll numbers came from. This election is different from all others and the only polls that count will be exit polls. And look for more of this from the Times.
Two Down . . .
. . . and 133 to go.
Bill Simon and a murder suspect drop out.
And an LA Times poll suggests some strange dynamics.
by Bill Whalen
08/25/2003 12:00:00 AM ===IRONICALLY, Bill Simon's best day as a recall candidate was his last. Unable to raise money, generate support from his party's power players, or earn attention amidst the media circus that is Arnoldmania, Simon found a novel way to get noticed: drop out."There are too many Republicans in this race and the people of our state simply cannot risk a continuation of the Gray Davis legacy," Simon said in a videotaped statement released Saturday morning. "For these reasons I think it's wise to step aside."
Such was Simon's luck that he wasn't even the first of the 135 recall candidates to withdraw voluntarily. That distinction goes to Scott Davis, a Palo Alto businessman who bowed out after it was reported that he's a prime suspect in the killing of the lover of his estranged wife. Now there's a shocker. Next thing you know, we'll find reality-TV contestants with checkered pasts. Speaking of which, how did Rick Rockwell miss out on recall?
Simon, who ran and lost to Gray Davis in last fall's gubernatorial contest, deserves credit for making the right choice. The first three recall polls showed little hope for his candidacy--no lower than 4 percent, no higher than 8 percent. At present, Arnold shows no signs of coming back to the Republican pack and Tom McClintock shows no sign of surrender. And Simon? His campaign was based on the premise that Davis lied last year about the size of the budget deficit (true) and therefore voters would hand him the office he deserved (false). If Simon had run a better campaign last year, free of such silly blunders as failing to cleanly release his tax returns, he'd had have spared the public the bother of this recall as he'd already be governor.
Complicating matters was that the only way Simon could have gotten attention was at Schwarzenegger's expense by running a negative campaign that would have drained millions from his personal fortune, failed, and all but ended his future in California Republican politics. He had started down that path before his surprise withdrawal, taking out radio ads trashing Arnold over his choice of tax-friendly Warren Buffett as an economic advisor. From here out, the Democrats will have to pay to trash Arnold.
Simon now has options. He can challenge Barbara Boxer in next year's Senate race (the Republican field is wide open), angle for a visible role if there's a Schwarzenegger administration, or run for a statewide constitutional office in 2006. If he chooses the latter, he should consider the State Treasurer's office, which is currently occupied by Democrat Phil Angelides. Angelides is the prototypical Sacramento insider--ripe for a fall in an Arnold-defined, post-recall California. Plus, he's as much a culprit in the state budget fiasco as Davis, failing to sell Wall Street on the merits of California as the state's leading bond pitchman. (Ironically Simon had his eye on that job before political consultants talked him into running for governor.)
So how does Simon's exit impact the October 7 vote? Simon's name remains on the ballot but his supporters will have to choose for themselves: He didn't endorse anyone in his exit statement.
AS THIS WEEKEND'S Los Angeles Times poll shows, there are still plenty of choices for Republicans. Once again, we have a statewide survey that finds Republicans split--22 percent for Arnold, 25 percent for three other Republicans (including former baseball commissioner Peter Ueberroth, who's running as an independent but is listed on the ballot as a Republican).
In case you're keeping score at home, here's how the first three recall polls handicap the field:
LA Times (8/16-8/21) PPIC (8/8-8/17) FIELD (8/10-8/13) Average Recall Davis 50-45 58-36 58-37 55.3-39.3 Bustamante 35 18 25 26 Schwarzenegger 22 23 22 22.3 McClintock 12 5 9 8.7 Ueberroth 7 4 5 5.3 Simon 6 4 8 6
A FEW THOUGHTS: As the risk of running afoul of Susan Pinkus, the Los Angeles Times' pollster, her survey raises lots of questions. (It's worth noting, by the way, that the results are based on a sampling of a wider pool of registered voters, not just likely voters. The PPIC and Field polls stick to likely voters.)
Oddity #1: Schwarzenegger has a positive press conference, runs an upbeat bio spot on statewide TV, and yet the Times reports that only a late surge in the poll brings him back to the same level as the Field and PPIC polls. One would assume that, after firming up his credentials as a fiscal conservative, Arnold would get more support from the right.
Oddity #2: Democrats had a week in which the dominant story line was intraparty division. Dianne Feinstein told Democrats to vote "no" on recall and skip the second half of the ballot; House minority leader Nancy Pelosi said to vote "yes" on Bustamante. Yet, according to Times, anti-recall sentiment is growing. It just doesn't add up.
Oddity #3: Bustamante received key endorsements from Democratic leadership groups, but also unveiled a budget "fix" that, if approved, amounts to the biggest tax increase in California history. Yet, in a survey adjusted for heavier-than-usual Republican turnout, Bustamante's poll numbers are nearly twice as strong as the PPIC's findings.
Oddity #4: The Times find that more than one-third of moderate Republican voters would support Schwarzenegger, and one-fourth would vote for Bustamante. This, even though the media have been telling voters night and day that Arnold is pro-choice and pro-gay rights--moderate to liberal on social issues. Bustamante's strength among Republicans sounds fishy: It's the kind of support you'd expect for a more familiar candidate, like Feinstein.
What this does suggest is that pollsters could have egg on their faces the morning after the recall vote. Unlike normal elections, recall carries all sorts of variables: an unpredictable turnout; the possibility of first-time voters drawn by a celebrity and a Latino Democrat; and the possibility that voters will be confused by a lengthy, two-part ballot. Toss in the other wildcards of California politics--for example, Republicans won the governor's race in 1982 thanks to an unexpectedly large absentee vote--and it could mean a late night of result-watching on the West Coast.
With only 133 candidates left in the race, you'd think the options would narrow.
Bill Whalen is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution, where he follows California and national politics.
If this anomoly of the poll were accurate, California has a problem that can not be solved. The state will have to crumble before it can be rebuilt.
Gee maybe some people on the right have more concerns than just Arnie's views on property taxes in California, ya think?
He is still pro-gay agenda and pro-abortion which are FAR left views.
Yeah maybe(MAYBE)Arnie will leave Prop 13 alone but he will still pollute the minds of your kids with pro-gay propaganda, that is if they survive being born before Arnies abortion butchers get their bloody hands on them!
Two Down (..LA Times poll suggests some strange dynamics)
Posted by chiller
On 08/25/2003 7:18 AM PDT with 3 comments
The Weekly Standard ^ | 8/25/03 | Bill WhalenTwo Down . . . and 133 to go. Bill Simon and a murder suspect drop out
Posted by Pokey78
On 08/24/2003 9:10 PM PDT with 9 comments
The Weekly Standard ^ | 08/25/03 | Bill Whalen
Thanks to those who offered the full articles, but that's why I excerpted them. Whalen's complete piece was posted late last night, but the real story, imho is more deception from the left, as Whalen's 4 oddities properly explain.
FYI, I'd prefer McClintock too, but either R must replace either of the D's.
Times Poll shows Bustamante With Lead
LA Times ^ | August 24, 2003 | Mark Z. Barabak
Posted on 08/23/2003 8:30 PM PDT by DodgeRam
Times Poll Shows Bustamante Leads Schwarzenegger in Recall
Race By Mark Z. Barabak Times Staff Writer6:58 PM PDT, August 23, 2003
Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante holds a wide lead over Arnold Schwarzenegger in the race to succeed Gov. Gray Davis, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll, which finds the Republican vote splintered among several GOP contenders.
As the sole major Democrat running to replace Davis — should the incumbent be ousted Oct. 7 — Bustamante enjoys the support of 35% of likely voters, the poll found.
Schwarzenegger received 22% support, followed by three fellow Republicans: state Sen. Tom McClintock of Thousand Oaks with 12%, businessman Peter V. Ueberroth with 7% and Bill Simon Jr. — the GOP's 2002 gubernatorial nominee — with 6%.
Simon abruptly quit the race today, after the poll was completed...
-- snip --
To: Princeliberty
Do you have another LA Times poll to compare with? If not this is the initial poll and how is one going up/down? If you are comparing it to other polls then that's apples and oranges.....
When either the CA Field Poll or the PPIC poll issue another poll then you'll have something to compare against.....
13 posted on 08/23/2003 8:50 PM PDT by deport (OCT 7, it cometh too soon for some... ARNOLD has the heavy MOJO)
-- snip --
This is a poll of registered voters, so it will lean liberal by about 15-20%.
14 posted on 08/23/2003 8:52 PM PDT by B Knotts
-- snip --
"... interviewed 1,351 registered voters between Aug. 16 and Aug. 21. Among them were 801 voters deemed likely to cast ballots on the recall."
The poll was mostly taken before Wed., the 20th, the day of Arnold's great press conference. A large chunk don't appear likely to vote.
15 posted on 08/23/2003 8:53 PM PDT by LibertyAndJusticeForAll
-- snip --
To: Torie
By the by, I give the most weight to the recent Field Poll, which has had the best statewide track record of any polling firm.
The LA Times poll is out of sync with virtually every other poll taken during this same time frame.
64 posted on 08/23/2003 9:40 PM PDT by ambrose (Property Taxes are Too Low, Vote for Ahnold!)
CLICK HERE for the rest of that thread
No, LS, California doesn't have to crumble, but they sure as hell better elect Arnold or Tom McC. The Times is indicating otherwise.
The week in review, the week ahead
With 44 days to go until the election, we are really not much closer to figuring this thing out than we were when it started. Most public and private polls show Davis going down, with support for the recall gaining momentum. But one very prominent poll – by the LA Times – shows the recall question running neck and neck, leading by just 50-45.
Most public and private polls also show a two-man race, between Cruz and Arnold, in the battle to replace Davis. But the Times Poll shows Cruz with a big lead, 35-22.
In the coming week you will be hearing a lot of Republicans talking about liberal media conspiracies, and what they will see as an attempt by The Times to prop up the Democratic regime in Sacramento. I don’t think so. The poll may or may not be accurate. But having worked at The Times for 12 years, as well as at the Orange County Register and now the Bee, I have never seen any organized liberal (or libertarian) bias in the newsroom. It is true that many reporters are liberals, and that might color their view of the news or certain political figures. But mostly reporters just want to tell a good story. Davis would not be in the trouble he is in today if the press had not reported critically on his problems with the energy crisis, the budget and his pay-to-play fundraising style. And it’s just not credible to claim that The Times would skew a poll to try to help the Democrats. If the poll is wrong, it’s because telephone polling itself has become problematic in the age of cell phones, call-waiting and answering machines, and because this race, with its unique format and multi-candidate field, is going to be extremely difficult to assess.
The only poll I really want to see is the exit poll, which will interview voters as they leave the polls and should tell us a lot about who votes and why, and why they voted the way they did. Until then, I’m not going to believe anything I read, from any of them.
Having said that, it's no surprise that Cruz is showing in the mid-30s. California Democrats have a history of playing the field early in campaigns and then “coming home” once their party leaders make clear what’s at stake. That’s exactly what is happening now. I expect Cruz to show in the mid-30s, possibly around 40, in the other polls as they roll out in the weeks ahead. I don’t think he can get much higher than that, and I think it is very possible that his final vote total will be several points less than is reported in the polls leading up to the election.
One reason: because voter turnout is going to be higher than most people expect, and very few of the last-minute voters, the occasional voters, are going to go for Cruz. They are underrepresented in the polls and will be until Election Day. Also there is the problem of voters who vote against the recall failing to vote for any candidate in the replacement election. This is always a factor in recalls, usually the tune of 10 to 15 percent of the vote. Even if it's reduced this time, Cruz could still lose several points this way. Another reason he might drop on election day, and one that you won’t hear much about in the mainstream media: I think there might be an unspoken ethnic factor. Just as in 1982, when LA Mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American, was leading in the polls just before the election and then lost to George Deukmejian, I think some percentage of white Democrats will flee from Cruz at the moment of truth because of angst over immigration and the increasing power of Hispanics in California. If Gray Davis signs a bill allowing illegal immigrants to obtain driver’s licenses, this backlash will be even more likely. There is no way to measure whether this exists or how big it might be, but it’s out there, and it’s possible. It’s also possible that it will be balanced out by a surge of new Latino voters expressing ethnic pride, with new voters rushing to the polls to support one of their own. But both possible factors are just more reasons not to trust the polls.
Anyway, given the shape of the race at this moment, I expect Cruz to finish at around 37 percent, give or take a few points. Can Arnold, or any other Republican, top that? I think so. I still think it is Arnold’s to win or lose, depending on the kind of campaign he runs. If he nurtures the incredible natural excitement that is out there for him to tap, he will do fine. If he starts looking like just another politician, changing his stands on controversial issues, ducking questions and debates, attacking his opponents, then he will stall out. It might actually help him to be seen as the underdog. I think there was some resentment about his frontrunner status early in the race. People wondered what he had done to deserve such an exalted position. The media trained their guns on him. Now he can go about trying to earn the people’s trust, rather than taking it for granted. And if the next public poll shows him gaining on Cruz, Arnold can use that as part of his storyline. It’s possible, in other words, that Cruz has peaked too soon.
I think too much emphasis is being put on getting other candidates to drop out of the Republican race. Arnold was probably better off with both Simon and McClintock in, because they were splitting the conservative vote. It made them both look unviable. If they had both stayed in for another month, much of their support would have gradually drifted toward Arnold. Now McClintock has new fire and energy and might start to creep up toward Arnold in the polls. And that would change the entire dynamic of the race. Also, the talk about narrowing the field makes Arnold look weak. A strong candidate just runs his campaign and assumes that the people will listen and make the “right choice.” A weak one has to force people out of the campaign so that voters have fewer choices.
Besides, I don’t think McClintock is dropping out, at least not anytime soon. He believes deeply in what he is doing, and believes that this is the moment to turn California around. He is running on 20 years of experience and focus on California fiscal and economic issues. This is his big chance, and he is not going to walk away from it. If, a few weeks before the election, he is at 10 and Arnold’s at 35, maybe McClintock will drop out and endorse him. But if he does so, it will only happen once he is convinced that he has absolutely no chance to win. And it will come at the moment when his leverage over Arnold is at its peak. That is not the case right now. If Arnold is smart he will put out positive feelers to Tom, not threats, and make McClintock know that when or if the time comes, Arnold will be grateful for his support.
As for the recall itself, I do sense that a little bit of the rage, a little bit of the anger, has subsided in the state’s political atmosphere. One consultant told me that voters in focus groups don’t express hatred or anger at Davis so much as embarrassment. It’s like having to fire a once-valued employee who has screwed up. You don’t relish it, you do it with a twinge of regret, but you do what you have to do. The discussion is turning more intellectual, more thoughtful, as people evaluate the replacement candidates and give Davis one last look before deciding whether he should stay or go. A rush of legislation in the next couple of weeks, on workers compensation, health care and other issues, might help Davis. But it also might make him look cynical, finally doing some things with a gun to his head that he wouldn’t ever do before. Or pandering to the interest groups whose support he needs to survive the campaign.
It’s still very early. We have not seen television ads from anyone other than Arnold, and we will. Historically in California, that’s where elections are decided. This one will be different, because of the buzz in the media and on the streets. But the ads will play a major role. And it’s premature to make any judgments before we see how they look. There will almost certainly be negative ads aimed at Arnold, by Cruz or by Democratic interest groups. How he reacts will be important. As the outsider with a bully pulpit of his own, Arnold has the opportunity to turn any personal attacks into an issue to use against his opponents, bonding with voters about the sleazy standards of modern political life. But if he is drawn into a tit-for-tat, the sleaze will simply ooze over onto him, as it did to Bill Simon a year ago. Cruz, meanwhile, has a chance to paint an optimistic image of his own, the poor kid who worked his way up the political system and now has a chance to make history.
It is possible, after all we have been through this year, that the election will come down to a couple of competing, generally optimistic, immigrant-based stories, one with its focus on individuals and small business, creating good jobs, turning California around from the ground up, the other calling for "shared sacrifice" and an increased role for government in helping those who have been left behind.
August 23, 2003
Times poll shows big lead for Cruz
The LA Times Poll on the recall replacement election shows Bustamante leading Schwarzenegger 35-22, with McClintock in third place at 12 percent. The poll's result is dramatically different from the Public Policy Institute poll released last week, which showed Schwarzenegger leading 23-18, and the Field Poll done earlier, which had Bustamante and Schwarzenegger in a statistical tie. It does make sense that Democrats would begin to coalesce around Cruz. That was expected all along. But Arnold's inability to attract more Democrat and independent votes is a bit of a surprise. I have no opinion on whether this poll or one of the others is more accurate. It's probably worth noting that the surveys for this poll coincided with the flap over Arnold's position on Prop. 13 and ended just as he was rolling out his first television ad and holding a well publicized meeting with his economic advisers. Arnold's campaign says their tracking polls have the race a dead heat. But as I have said from the beginning, I have a feeling the polls are going to be erratic from start to finish in this race. Get used to it. Here is the Times story on the poll. Registration required.
Posted by dweintraub at 09:39 PM
However, there is no question that the LA Times CANNOT be trusted to provide objective reporting. One way they or any other left-wing media mouthpiece can build bias into the survey is to simply use a sample with more/fewer San Francisco respondants, more if you want the results to have ultra-left wing, e.g., pro-Davis, Bustamante and anti-Bush, anti-America, and anti-Arnold results., findings and fewer in the unlikely event that you want to shade the answers to the good guys.
In terms of the Davis ranting about the recall being part of a Republican conspiracy, I have heard no one respond with the story of how he spent money to run anti-Riordan adds to influence the Republican primary and hand pick the "easier" Republican. That is cynical AND conspiratorial!!
"If the most qualified candidate must defer every time a celebrity or a millionaire casts a longing eye on public office, well then we've lost something very important in our democracy, and it's called merit,"
Gotta love a man who'll state the honest truth like that (but would he say the same thing about Steve Forbes)?
He has convinced me that the only poll that will count is the final vote count.
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