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Posted on 08/22/2003 2:18:28 PM PDT by FairOpinion
The race for the California governorship has boiled down to just two candidates, according to offshore futures traders, with Arnold Schwarzenegger and Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante making up 87% of all possible outcomes.
While survey and poll results have swung wildly over the past week, the futures market at offshore sportsbook World Sports Exchange (www.wsex.com) has yielded a far more consistent read on the election outcome.
Schwarzenegger is currently a 52% favorite to win the governorship, down from 54% from the market opening on August 11th. Bustamante and Gray Davis fill out the field at 35% and 14%, respectively, while the chances of relatively high-profile candidates such as Bill Simon, Peter Ueberroth, and Arianna Huffington have been completely dismissed at 0% to 3%.
Such markets, where actual dollars exchange hands, are widely seen as having unique predictive accuracy. The Iowa Electronic Marketplace, for example, has consistently outperformed both polls and pundits over the last several presidential election cycles.
Traders at World Sports Exchange are able to buy and sell contracts on events as varied as the California recall election, the 2004 Democratic Party nomination, the Heisman Trophy, and of course the World Series and Super Bowl champions.
World Sports Exchange is a pioneer in the offshore betting industry. The company was founded in 1996 by Jay Cohen and Steve Schillinger, two options traders from the Pacific Stock Exchange. Today World Sports Exchange serves over 10,000 clients located in more than 40 countries.
... "the chances of relatively high-profile candidates such as Bill Simon, Peter Ueberroth, and Arianna Huffington have been completely dismissed at 0% to 3%. " (while the article doesn't mention McC, he is in the same range) http://www.wsex.com/frames/main.html
You can also check http://www.tradesports.com , which also shows similar figures.
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