Well, that's a pretty defeatist attitude for a conservative, I think. We'll have to disagree, but I think Californians would like to see a no tax hikes pledge, since it's their taxes we're talking about hiking.
A major problem with this poll--and maybe with the Field Poll too, is that in a race with over 100 candidates, I think the only poll that will really accurately gauge anything is a poll that asks for voluntary responses only. Few people will go to the booth and go through the list of 135 candidates and then say, "Oh, OK, now that I see the choices, I'll pick John Smith." In a regular election, that might happen, but it seems unlikely here. I don't know Field's methodology, but they may want to consider that in this case.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Cruz fall badly in the next field poll thanks to his tax plan, and McClintock in low double digits. That's when Simon has to bite the bullet and get out. He'll probably endorse Arnold, but his people will mostly go to McClintock. I know from personal experience with him that Simon is a lightweight when it comes to discussing issues, and a total buffoon in just about everything else.
I don't think the conservatives will cause Arnold to lose the race. When (if?) he loses, it will be his own refusal to present a workable plan for Calif. He can't resist suggesting specific budget cuts until "after" he's elected. Sorry, pal, no training wheels.
Arnold appears, though, to have kept the teachers' union money out of the race with this huge, stupid sop to them of not touching ed spending. That is a huge service to the conservatives. If everyone keeps their sights trained on Busty, I maintain my prediction that he could come in third.