[Scott from the Left Coast]

To put it another way: What these numbers show is that Bustamante and Schwarzenegger are in a statistical dead heat (with the aparent advantage to Bustamante). The numbers show that it is possible for Schwarzenegger to win without McClintock and Simon votes. There are enough undecideds and/or Ueberoth-type voters to get Arnold to the magic 33% (what it will likely take to win, unless the race coalesces to 2-3 candidates by October 1, in which case 35-37 percent will be needed).

However, McClintock or Simon, even with their votes taken together, cannot hope to win without over 2/3 of Schwarzenegger votes going to them. Schwarzenegger is only getting a bit over a third of Republican voters right now. So how on earth can McClintock or Simon hope to draw 2/3 of Arnold's votes to them...given that most of Arnold's votes are from centrist/left Independents and Democrats???

[Those_Crazy_Liberals]

I agree with your analysis completely. However, given the poor campaigns run by Simon/McClintock last year, I'm sure their philosophy is going to be to go after Arnold, ignoring you point that they can't get his votes. They'll move voters from Arnold not to them, but to Bustamonte. Thus, the democrats will retain power.