He told me it was difficult to gauge public reaction to his proposals... He said he never met anyone opposed to his views.
I think that is very true of most candidates. They are met by the party faithful who reinforce their beliefs. Rarely does a candidate get to learn the views of the centrists that decide their fate. No handler wants a candidate in a situation where he is confronted by people who are opposed to his views. So candidates live in a world isolated from accurate views of public opinion.
As Mike pointed out, the danger is that a candidate will believe his own eyes and ears and not the people who do the polls and conduct the focus groups.
Kerry strikes me as a man who "knows it all". He is the most likely candidate to ignore good advise and follow the bad advise of his gut. I don't think Kerry is going anywhere. Kerry appears to me to always be thinking of his strategic position. What he says is based on what he thinks of his current situation. Since he has no real beliefs he can't remember what he said in the last stategic situation. And he has as many opinions as he has situations.
It would be fun to hear the media jokes about Kerry. Bet your bottom dollar there are a lot of them.