Why I'm Voting For Arnold Schwarzenegger (Another Conservative Backs Arnold)

Townhall.com ^ | 8/13/03 | Ben Shapiro

[goldstategop]

Conservatives are upset with Arnold Schwarzenegger. Cal Thomas writes that Arnold "is a social liberal and is bound to disappoint conservative Republicans." George Will states that Schwarzenegger "could hardly be less like Reagan." Mona Charen derides the leading candidate for California governor as a Ross Perot clone.

Thomas, Will and Charen are right. But I'm voting for Arnold anyway.

Schwarzenegger is the best thing to happen to California politics since Ronald Reagan. Which isn't to say that his positions resemble Reagan's -- they don't. Reagan was staunchly anti-abortion, while Schwarzenegger is pro-choice. Reagan was obviously an opponent of same-sex marriage, while Schwarzenegger is ambiguous on the issue. Reagan was a dedicated fiscal conservative, while Schwarzenegger espouses higher government spending.

So why would I vote for someone who is the epitome of the liberal Republican? Specifically because he is a liberal Republican. In California, nothing else will cut it. It's very easy for pundits to espouse the candidacies of hard-core conservatives like Bill Simon and Tom McClintock. But they have no chance of winning. None. In California, politics trump principle every time.

In the last gubernatorial election, I naively believed that the principles of solid conservatism could triumph over the unsuccessful record of liberalism in California. In the Republican primary, when Bill Simon went up against Richard Riordan, the popular former mayor of Los Angeles and liberal Republican, I voted for Simon. The conservative base felt betrayed by Riordan's liberalism, and it too went with Simon.

If ever a real conservative had a chance to win in California, Simon was the guy. Even Democrats were disenchanted with Davis. But Simon ran a brutal campaign, bumbling, fumbling, stumbling his way to defeat. And I realized that I should have voted for Riordan. Even though Riordan was no Ronald Reagan (or even Pete Wilson), he couldn't have been worse than Gray Davis has been. Riordan would have crushed Davis in the general election. Republicans blew it.

Now, Republicans have another chance. This is Riordan vs. Simon, part two, with Schwarzenegger playing the part of Riordan. Schwarzenegger is more popular than Riordan. He's younger, better looking, more charismatic and with better name recognition. He's also a smarter politician. Just as he kept the public guessing for weeks about whether or not he would run for governor, he's now keeping the public guessing about his positions. This means that the incompetence of Gray Davis remains the focus of the recall. And after Schwarzenegger is elected, his name recognition will prevent the Democrats from staging a retaliatory recall effort.

Schwarzenegger won't fix the state in the short run. It's too far gone for one man to fix. The California assembly is dominated by socialists, so Arnold will spend much of his time vetoing. The only bills he will be able to jam through are those that funnel cash to his favorite causes, education in particular.

But in the long run, the Schwarzenegger candidacy can help the state far more than just another conservative defeat. The vast majority of voters in California pull the lever for Democrats on a regular basis. In the 2000 presidential elections, George W. Bush campaigned hard in California. Al Gore didn't spend a dime and won the state easily. Why? Not because the positions of Californians are so far to the left but because Californians are accustomed to voting Democrat. Registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans in the state 45 percent to 35 percent. It's inconceivable to many Californians to even consider voting Republican.

That's how Arnold will change things. Independents, who break heavily Democrat in California, will consider Arnold. Democrats who are disillusioned by Davis and attracted by Schwarzenegger's middle-of-the-road stance will consider Arnold. Young voters who have never stepped into a polling booth in their lives will go vote just to punch their cards for Schwarzenegger. The Hispanic populace, which greatly admires Schwarzenegger's masculinity and charisma, will pull the Republican lever.

In California, these groups dominate the voting constituency. And for the first time in a long time, the Republican label won't turn them off. That is Schwarzenegger's big contribution. His candidacy will change minds about voting Republican. Then, in the future, when ideologically sound Republicans run for office, Californians won't dismiss them out of hand.

Arnold won't change the makeup of the Republican Party from the inside -- he'll change the perception of the Republican Party from the outside. California Republicans will be marketable -- and more importantly, electable. That's something even the strongest conservatives should appreciate.

[tdadams]

So why would I vote for someone who is the epitome of the liberal Republican? Specifically because he is a liberal Republican. In California, nothing else will cut it. It's very easy for pundits to espouse the candidacies of hard-core conservatives like Bill Simon and Tom McClintock. But they have no chance of winning. None. In California, politics trump principle every time.

A lot of this echos what I stated the other day.

[xsmommy]

it comes down to pragmatism v. idealism. idealism doesn't win elections, which means it doesn't get much DONE.

[tdadams]

In the end, all of this will probably be irrelevant. I expect about a week before the recall election, Davis will step down and Bustamante will step in and that'll be the end of that. It's the only outcome I see.

Democrats can read the writing on the wall and there's no way they're going to let the governor's office fall to a Republican. Davis will fall on his sword before that happens.

Sorry to burst any bubbles, but that's my prediction.

[Miss Marple]

Apparently, you have missed the statements that the recall goes on even if Davis steps down, per California law. Davis should have stepped down before the petitions wee certified. Now his resigning makes no difference. Bustamante might get some help by being the governor during the time leading up to the election, but I don't think it will help him that much.

[Miss Marple]

It took Ronald Reagan's candidacy and the incompetence of Jimmy Carter to move me into the "R" column. I came from a democrat family, and automatically voted democrat based on misguided ideas of what they stood for. Heck, I even voted for McGovern!

But in 1980 there was NO doubt that Carter had been a disaster as president, and Reagan intrigued me with the idea that the country could be proud of itself again. (The Miracle on Ice hockey victory gave a glimpse of what things could be like when people actually loved the country and believed in themselves.) So, for the very first time in my life, and as the very first person in my family, I voted Republican.

I have not voted for a democrat since.

Arnold can do the same thing in California, I think. The situation there is much like Carter's presidency. There is no doubt that Davis has been a disaster as a governor. People are intrigued by Arnold's candidacy. If some cross party lines and vote Republican for him, they very well may end up permanent converts, as did I.

[Bluntpoint]

Baby steps.

Tent revival type conversions, speaking in Republican tongues and running up and down the aisles shouting praise for all things republican, does not often happen.

[tdadams]

Well, if that's the case, then Neal Cavuto and Joe Klein of Newsweek both have it wrong, because I've heard both of them (as recently as yesterday) state that if Davis were to resign, the recall vote is off.

[onyx]

If true, then they're also wrong!

The recall election goes forward even if Gray dies before October 7, 2003.

[Miss Marple]

Pinging a couple of Californians who can tell you the straight scoop. On one of the threads someone posted the law. I think it is confusing a lot of people, but Neil and Klein are wrong.

[Bluntpoint]

I have seen analysis that the recall statute, if read alone, does permit the recall to go forward even if Davis resigns.

However, when read in conjunction with other statutes concerning the governorship, the outcome is not so clear.

The worst mistake an attorney can make is to show up in court with the first statute that buttressed his case and fail to read other statutes that might qualify or limit such statute.

[goldstategop]

They're wrong. If Davis resigns now, Bustamante would serve as acting governor til the Election. If he had resigned a month ago, before the recall petition had been certified by the Secretary Of State's office, it would have been a completely different story.

[tdadams]

I think it is confusing a lot of people, but Neil and Klein are wrong.

Well, with all due respect, there's probably some ambiguity in the law that's causing confusion. I'm sure Cavuto and Klein would insist that you're wrong as much as you insist they are.

[goldstategop]

They're wrong. But if the election outcome is very close, the resulting lawsuits will make Florida look like a tempest in a teapot.

[Miss Marple]

I have not seen the discussion that other laws make the meaning ambiguous.

If that is so, Davis needs to resign right now. Otherwise, he will be guilty of being complicit with Bustamante in conspiring to waste taxpayers' money.

And one other thing, if the groundswell for Schwartzenegger is as large as I think it is, the resignation switcheroo would infufiate the Californian electorate. Bustamante would find that HE was facing a recall as well.

Legal tricks will infufiate Californians, I think. If they try that, they could bring the entire California Rat party down.

[GraniteStateConservative]

Is the recall of the governor or of Davis? If so, could Bustamante be on the second ballot if he were to become Governor?

[Bluntpoint]

I agree with you on the present atitude of the electorate. I should point out, reading a statute in light of other statutes, adiministrative law, case law, etc. is not legal trickery.

[tkathy]

RINOs need a little love.

[goldstategop]

Its of Davis. If Bustamante wins, he becomes Governor and names his own replacement for his old job. If he loses, he remains on as Lt. Governor for the remainder of his term.

[Bluntpoint]

For every staunch conservative labeling someone a RINO, there are 10 more, stauncher conservatives, who would label that person a RINO... and so on, and so on.......

[goldstategop]

That hasn't stopped them in the past. The liberal elites care about keeping power and you can be sure they will try everything short of a coup d'etat to retain their grip on it here in California.