Posted on 08/10/2003 2:07:44 PM PDT by Brian S
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- When President Bush's economic team descends on his Crawford, Texas, ranch on Wednesday, odds are that each will be carrying some sort of lucky charm, four-leaf clover or rabbit's foot.
With the 2003 White House economic agenda substantially in place after Bush signed the latest $350 billion tax cut into law last month, his advisers can only wait, keep their fingers crossed and watch to see if it helps the U.S. economy regain its footing.
Economists do expect a strong pickup in the second half of the year, in part due to the tax cut. But so far, "it's a hope and an expectation -- not a reality," said Sung Won Sohn, chief economist at Wells Fargo.
Analysts said White House officials have little ammunition left to help the economy, in any case.
"I don't think there is anything left on the shelf that would change things over the next 12 months," said Greg Valliere, chief strategist at Charles Schwab's Washington research unit.
"Just about everything that could improve the economy has been done," he said.
Charles Gabriel, director of Prudential Securities' Washington research unit, sounded a similar note. "They have used all the old economic policy tools as aggressively as they can," he said, adding that at this point "they are biting their nails."
The six-member Bush economic team consists of the three Cabinet-level officials -- Treasury Secretary John Snow, Labor Secretary Elaine Chao and Commerce Secretary Don Evans -- plus three White House advisers: White House budget chief Josh Bolten, White House chief economist Gregory Mankiw and top economic strategist Stephen Friedman.
Showing he cares
Bush and his advisers will begin the effort to convince the public that things are indeed turning around, while in the same breath, showing compassion for workers whose factory jobs have been moved overseas. The economy has been hemorrhaging manufacturing jobs for months now.
"We're beginning to see hopeful signs of faster growth in the economy, which over time will yield new jobs. But the unemployment rate is still too high," Bush said during a Rose Garden news conference before departing for his summer vacation.
A poll released last Thursday indicated Bush is showing some political vulnerability as the economy moves into the forefront over the war in Iraq.
The survey, by the Pew Research Center, found that six-in-10 Americans now say the economy -- not terrorism -- is the most important presidential priority.
"Perceptions are funny. Convincing voters he was engaged in making the economy better was a problem for his father and I think it could be for him as well," said Valliere.
But this could lead to more criticism that the current Bush economic team is taking its orders from White House political aides.
The New Republic, a conservative Democratic magazine, has published a stinging criticism of Snow and noted that when the Treasury secretary meets with top Bush political adviser Karl Rove, it's in Rove's office.
Sohn of Wells Fargo said the Bush team could discuss specific steps to lower the nation's unemployment rate, which hit a nine-year high in June before slipping a little last month.
White House spokesman Clair Buchan said the economic team meeting is intended "to review where the economy stands."
It might be added that where the economy stands is at a crossroads.
Greg Robb is a senior reporter for CBS MarketWatch based in Washington.
Yeah, the clown patrol plus dumb and dumber and the three stooges all lead by Mr. Softpatch.
Richard W.
Move to China then if you think it is better! You guys are so funny, not! China 8% growth is from an economy is pitiful by our standards. According to Tang, 75 per cent of impoverished urban residents are laid-off workers, unemployed people and employees in troubled enterprises. However, an incursion of rural workers into the labor market in the cities have made prospects bleak for those seeking to return to the workforce.
The country has 53 million Internet users with a population of 1.2 billion (the United States has a lot more users). Half the population has never even touch a phone, they have no infrastructure, no cars, no computers, vast majority of Chinese live in adject proverty, 18 percent of their population is illiterate, they have 6 times the population and a tenth, I repeat, a tenth the GDP output of the United States.
Most, not some say growth for the remainder of the year will be over 4%. Several economist predict a growth rate of 6% or over for next year.
The numbers are looking up in almost every other regard, in fact, it is projected that the increase in GDP will be around 6.5%. Company profits are up, durable goods are up, stock market up, tax rebates are in the mail, consumer confidence up, home sales up, consumer and business spending up, etc...
Businesses, which cut spending on equipment and software in the first three months of this year, boosted such investment in the second quarter at a sizable 7.5 percent rate. That marked the biggest increase in three years.
After six straight quarters of slashing spending on new plants, office buildings and other structures, businesses boosted this spending by 4.8 percent in the second quarter.
The US service sector surprised experts with a fourth consecutive month of growth in July that helped fan hopes of a recovery, according to Institute for Supply Management.
Demand for U.S. manufactured goods rose at the sharpest rate in three months in June as a solid rise in orders for long-lasting items joined with a small gain in demand for other goods, the government said Monday.
A recent survey shows that the percentage of CEOs saying they're worse off now than they were 6 months ago has dropped from 51% to 26%.
Americans applied for mortgages to buy homes in near-record numbers the first week in August. Applications for mortgages to buy homes rose 6.9 percent in the week ended Aug. 1 to their second highest level on record.
America's business productivity soared in the second quarter of 2003 and new claims for unemployment benefits dropped to a six-month low last week, a double dose of good news as the economy tries to get back to full throttle. Productivity - the amount that an employee produces per hour of work - grew at an annual rate of 5.7 percent in the April to June quarter, the best showing since the third quarter of 2002, the Labor Department reported Thursday. That marked an improvement from the 2.1 percent growth rate in productivity posted in the first three months of this year.
Companies' unit labor costs, meanwhile, fell at a rate of 2.1 percent in the second quarter, boding well for profit margins. That compared with a 2 percent rate of increase in the first quarter.
Retailers sales were above expectations for many merchants, even the struggling department store sector. As retailers reported their sales results Thursday, all industry segments appeared to benefit from an improved selling environment. Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the industry leader, boosted its profit outlook for the second quarter. J.C. Penney Co. Inc., Kohl's Corp. and Gap Inc. were among the retailers reporting sales that beat analysts' forecasts. Even May Department Stores Co., which has struggled with sales declines, eked out a solid increase in sales at stores open at least a year, surpassing analysts' forecasts.
June wholesale inventories were unchanged as the large 1.5% jump in sales stripped warehouse supply. The combination left a 1.22 month inventory to sales ratio -- just above the 1.21 record low of March. Low inventory supply will provide a boost to production as inventory rebuilding will strengthen under a stronger growth economy to provide a welcome tailwind.
In a second report from the department, new applications for jobless benefits fell by a seasonally adjusted 3,000 to a six-month low of 390,000 for the work week ending Aug. 2. It marked the third week in a row that claims were below 400,000, a level associated with a weak job market. This suggest the pace of layoffs is stabilizing. Claims hit a high this year of 459,000 during the work week that ended April 19.
John Lonski, an economist with Moody's Investors Services, said the boost in productivity and drop in labor costs should set the stage for a resumption of payrolls growth in the next few months by making it more "profitable" for employers to add workers. He predicted that the government's employment report for August will show an increase of about 40,000 in nonfarm payrolls.
Unemployment typically lags the rest of the economy, since employers usually wait until a recovery is guaranteed before they hire new workers. Everything I stated above combined, will create millions upon millions of jobs like the last recovery. There are hundreds of cities in the United States with unemployment under 4.0 % (considered by many to be full employment). You take the poorly managed California out of the national equation and the recovery looks 10 times better. California has 10 of the top 25 cities with the highest unemployment.
So you encourage GWB to do nothing when most of these economists are the same ones who had been predicting the recession would be over in early 2002 and that we would be having 6% growth in teh first two quarters of 2003. I hope the economists you are citing are correct but that does not address teh underlying economic problems nor does it address the fact that employment (not the unemployment stats) has not revovered. Employment is not a lagging indicator the way some argue unemployment is. there has been a major net loss of jobs in the USA there is major underemployment mostly caused by the continuation of Clintonian economic policies and you want GWB to say everything is fine. Are you that anxious to help Democrats?
Stating everything is coming along just fine when the actual evidence of gains in teh economy is not going to get GWB re-elected (but maybe that is not what you want).
Charles Gabriel, director of Prudential Securities' Washington research unit, sounded a similar note. "They have used all the old economic policy tools as aggressively as they can," he said, adding that at this point "they are biting their nails."
At first read I thought that it was the administration that was saying there is nothing else we can do. On second read, it is apparent to me that these guys have little interest in implimenting your ideas harpseal. Do you think that they are defending/profiting from the status quo and; therefore, do not want to see regulatory and/or policy reform that would allow competition into the markets? In other words, are these guys embracing the use of heavy handed regulation to restrict competition?
No thank you I am an American and I do not support policies that help China unlike you who are trying to get focus off theproblems which are ewndemic to u current economic situation.
You guys are so funny, not! China 8% growth is from an economy is pitiful by our standards. According to Tang, 75 per cent of impoverished urban residents are laid-off workers, unemployed people and employees in troubled enterprises. However, an incursion of rural workers into the labor market in the cities have made prospects bleak for those seeking to return to the workforce.
Forgive me if I do not think it is a good thing to destroy teh American economy to help China I note your citing of this information about Vhina actually reveals your true agenda. You do not wish for the American economy to be healthy all you wish for is a continuation of the capital investment in China as opposed to the USA.
The country has 53 million Internet users with a population of 1.2 billion (the United States has a lot more users). Half the population has never even touch a phone, they have no infrastructure, no cars, no computers, vast majority of Chinese live in adject proverty, 18 percent of their population is illiterate, they have 6 times the population and a tenth, I repeat, a tenth the GDP output of the United States.
Actually there are cars and Computers in China and your talking down of teh nation taht has run up such a high current account surplus with the USA reveals your true 9ntent. China also imposes high tariffs on American consumer goods going into China (50% in some cases.) China demands American manufacturers produce any goods for the Chinese markets in China. This includes Boeing aircraft becaus eBoeing was in "competition" with taht paragon of the Free Market airbus. I can go on but why bother. If China wants investment let it provide stable rule of law and civil liberties for its people. Let it institute true reprentative government. let it open its markets to the USA as the USA has opened its markets to them.
We will agree that they have little interest in implementing these principles.
Do you think that they are defending/profiting from the status quo and; therefore, do not want to see regulatory and/or policy reform that would allow competition into the markets?,P>That is a pssibility other possibilities include they just do not really looka t the current state of trade policy (highly unlikely). Also very possible is they think that anything that says globalism is wonderful an dthe follow the fashion trend.
In other words, are these guys embracing the use of heavy handed regulation to restrict competition?
It does seem they are embracing government deciding who should be the individual winners and losers by embracing the status quo. Perhaps they do not see anything other than monetary or fiscal policy as affecting the economy or maybe their comments were out of context and they do see it and the report left those parts of theri statements out. I am not impugning people's motives per se until I have more information than a report of quotations taht may or may not be out of context.
30,000 additional jobs lost since January 1. This does not adress the issue of those guest workers who were already in the USA prior to January 1, 2003. Remember that we are talking about everry one of these 30,000 jobs filed by new foreign guest workers must be sworn to have been unfillable by an American. Now we also have the Gartner group estimate that 10% of those 2.2 million American IT workers will have their jobs offshored over the next 18 months as of may for the estimate. I note June July and august would have more than 30,000 Americans just from the newly unempolyed would be available to take these jobs. This is not counting the ones who are already laid off and you are calling 30,000 new guest workers a straw dog. We are talking in the neigborhood of $2,000,000,000 being lost in payroll in the American economy and 1,000,000,000 being sent to otehr nations and this as I stated does not include the H1b's who arrived prior to January first of this year. Hey its only August and we are not even bringing in the other guest workers who are on L1 visas.
Now if you have been paying attention to all the threads you have posted on you would already know this. So why are you intentionally trying to mislead? Are you a mamber of the DNC or on the staff of some DemocRAT. Or are you just a pro China toady?
By the way one H1b visa holder working in the USA in IT is too many. Given your false number of 30,000 that is 30,000 jobs aqnd we have not even addressed the manufacturing jobs or the offshored jobs which this program supports.
Why do you support an internationalist agenda for GWB when that agenda is clearly harmful for the USA. Why do you obeject to enacting tariffs that would be beneficial to the USA? why do you support Clinton and accuse people of being doom and gloomers when all you ahve to back up your position is lies. If your position is so right maybe you can produce facts to back it up not guesstimates of the future.
I do not think anyone can find any where I engaged in criticism of the tax cuts proposed by GWB. My only complaint is the Congress did not enact all of Bush's proposed cuts. I have also praised the imposition of tariffs on steel. that was a major break with Clinton policy and one we can only hope is implemented in other areas.
actually they do matter.
China's average welfare recipent recieves $16.20 per month.
So what
Only the metropolitan areas have computers and cars, most of the nation doesn't have working plumbing, sanitation, health care, 70% of their population are pig farmers, a national average salary of $547, etc...
You stated before this they had No computers or cars now you state they do.
China is a basket case and they can not care for their people the burden of feeding 1.6 billion people will taxed them even further.
Please stop asking for sympathy for China and its current ciorrupt leadership I have none and will have none. If they wish to improve let them take the steps necessary to improve. Let them stop trying to build up a military, and stop spending on missles to threaten Taiwan. Remove their tariffs on American goods. let them allow American consumer goods in without tariffs and no tariff restrictions. Let them guarantee Freedom of speech, rule of law, and a Constitutional government that adheres to priciples of liberty and the Free Market.
I note the current accounbt deficit with China is continualy increasing.
Clearly we have a difference of opinion on facts I think facts do matter and you say facts do not matter.
You have ignored the cummulative effect of the visas and seem to have cited only India's share of those issued visas. They are issued for six years each, and have been accumulating under increasing caps:
1) In the U.S. population of 2 million programmers, 94,000 are unemployed and 400,000-500,000 are H1B visa holders.
2) H1B visas granted in 2001 were 163,000 and in 2002 were 79,100 - against a cap of 195,000 (the cap was 65,000 in 1998 and 115,000 in 1999-2000). Unless Congress extends it, the limit will revert to 65,000 in 2004
3) There were 342,000 H1B visa extensions granted which aren't counted under the caps)
4) In addition the L-1 Visa Program totaled 57,200 in 2002.
(*Source: George F McClure of IEEE?s Workforce Policy Committee, quoting US Bureau of Labor Statistics)
In March 2003, the American Engineering Association reported that the U.S. high-tech sector lost 560,000 jobs--a 10 percent decline--between January 2001 and December 2002. During the same period, companies sponsored more than this number of high-tech workers on H-1B and other temporary visas.
The Immigration Act of 1990 established an annual quota of 65,000 H-1B visas. The stated purpose was to bring "the best and the brightest" to American shores. This number of available visas became a fixed requirement under the World Trade Agreement.
Click on "about H1B
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