[tallhappy]

Two of the three will have to drop out within one month.

If not Cruz is next Governor.

[lainie]

I think California would like to elect a true conservative. We just don't have the numbers yet (or think we don't, I'm not sure which). We beat back Riordan last year, and Simon came a lot closer to unseating Doofus than a lot of people are willing to admit. Of course, the campaign was flawed, and the CA GOP doesn't seem to have its act together.

[pogo101]

I think McClintock COULD win, but he's got no money, so it's very tenuous in a campaign that, as a practical matter, will require so much money to win.

I think Simon COULD win, but he is tagged with that "amiable loser who fumbled the ball last time we gave it to him" label.

[Uncle Hal]

Heres the way I size up of the situation. I say this as a senior citizen, native CA. who has lived here all my life and conservative member of the GOP. Bill and Tom will get tops, 20% of the vote. Arianna, Larry, Peter etc. will get another 20%. That leaves Arnold and Cruz splitting the remaining 60% or so of the vote. Arnold will have to get 30% plus to win. As the field stands today only Arnold and Cruz can win. It will be interesting how the Dems handle the campaign with 2 candidates in the race. Remember they will have the usual supporters plus the liberal media which will go orgasmic with the prospect of a Hispanic Governor. The White House wants a Governor with an R after his name. They think it will put CA. in play in 04 if CA. has a Rep. Governor. They are probably right and the Dems know this as well. This a very different CA. than when Reagan got elected in 66. I do not know if a true conservative can be elected in this liberal state. So it may be the best we can hope for is an Arnold type Rep. Conservatives will be debating this for the next 58 days on these pages and where ever like minded people gather. It will make for great drama and interesting times. Plus it will be a very ugly.

[old school]

Talk-show hosts are not God. They all have opinions. We all have opinions. Their opinions are no more valid than our own. Do not base the conduct of your affairs, on someone else's opinion. In my opinion, McClintock has a very good chance of becoming our Governor! I'm going to act in my self-interest, not based on what someone else might think is best for me! Because, after all, opinions don't feed my family!

[truth_seeker]

"No. Simon is very electable. And so is McClintock. And, it ain’t over until the fat lady sings."

Tune in to Free Republic, and Brian Baldwin, for your expert political commentary.

[Eric Hogue 1380 KTKZ]

As a conservative talk show host, I believe it is TOO early to get TOO excited about this issue. We have 58 days of 'national attention' during the SLOW August news cycle...relax, the Republican leader will take shape in September. I'm a HUGE Tom McClintock fan (I like Bill too!), but I do understand the importance of the WIN here. Doing radio in Sacramento, I understand the NEED for the GOP to control the corner office, the line item veto and the 100 boards and commissions. But I think it is too soon to ride the Arnold train. He has much to deliver before he wins and McClintock is polling very well for this special election. The time to talk about going for the winners in September 30th, NOT August 10th! BTW...Davis is toast and Cruz is in bed with Idian Casino money and the Labor Unions - Garamendi was 'ordered' out by the Labor Unions during 'discussions' on Saturday morning! Right now, the Dems are positioning Cruz for the vote - let's let them offer their strategy before we implode so quickly!

[Republican Wildcat]

Well, I don't know about McClintock, but I think Simon certainly proved he was unelectable with that embarrassingly incompetent campaign he ran last year. That election was his to lose, as he was ahead in the polls...he was the best person on Davis' re-election team.

[medscribe]

Bill Simon ran the most inept, pitiful campaign for a state house in recent memory. He IS UNELECTABLE in a state where moderates and liberals outnumber conservatives 5 to 1. He stumbles in his speeches, he's incoherent half the time, and he makes Al Gore look like Mr. Lively Party Hardy at campaign appearances.

Tom McClintock...the only response you'll get from 99% of the electorate is WHO!?!

It's 50-something days and counting to the recall election. The GOP needs a big name to win, and in the land of fruits and nuts, that big name is Arnold. This election will NOT be about issues where policy wonks can debate ad nauseum. This election will be a sprint to win the "mad as hell and not going to take it anymore" vote. And Bustamante won't have a snowball's chance against Arnold once those "nigger" ads start running.

[moehoward]

"Tom McClintock is unelectable”

Of course he is electable. There is a very real posibility that Arnold will fizzle.

[B Knotts]

There can be no doubt that Schwarzenegger has superior name ID. However, I notice a trend among people largely unfamiliar with California politics to assume that because they have never heard of Tom McClintock or someone else, that voters in California will reject them.

McClintock has been around for a long time, and is a mainstream conservative Republican. He nearly won a statewide race last year (he ended up losing by 0.3%), despite a huge financial disadvantage.

Yes, Schwarzenegger will probably win, but a lot could happen between now and October 8.

[Consort]

If Arnold wins big, then a more Conservative candidate might have had a chance of winning, as well. If Arnold loses, then a more Conservative candidate would have been routed. Cruz probably has the best chance.

[Political Junkie Too]

I think some of these comments are "self-fulfilling prophecy."

Simon came very close to winning despite his poor campaign. However, his campaign was such in part because of the lies of Gray Davis which are the basis for his recall.

Besides lying to the people about the depth of California's deficit, Davis took advantage of the (in my opinion, a politically motivated trumped up) guilty verdict against the Simon family business to hurt the Simon campaign. This had the direct result of drying up needed campaign funding, the shortage of which resulted in the lackluster Simon rebuttals to Davis' attacks. Even after the guilty verdict was overturned in October, Davis continued to run campaign ads quoting the guilty verdict, claiming that they were "technically" true because Simon was found guilty at a point in time. By the time the guilty verdict was overturned, it was too late for Simon to recover. I believe that this is partly why the people of California resent Gray Davis and is part of the reason for the recall.

So, I wouldn't say that Simon is unelectable. I would say that Simon has to show the forcefulness of his determination if he wants voters to reconsider him, or else he will be unelectable.

-PJ

[McGavin999]

What it means is that you have to be realistic. A conservative will NOT win in California yet. You have to convince the people of California that republicans are not evil, cold hearted people. That's the simple fact of the matter. California is so far left that even Arnold is going to be tough for them to swallow, but they may do it because they're in so much trouble.

Even the far left knows that you can't trust democrats with your pocketbook despite what the Clintonites have been trying to convince people of over the past decade. As it is, it's going to be a real fight to get Arnold in, it would be impossible to get Simon or McClintock in. Failure to face this fact is going to result in Governor Bustamante, and then California's troubles will really begin. You get Arnold in, and if he does a good job (and I think he will) THEN you can run a conservative. The stigma will be removed. You might even end up getting republicans voted into the state senate. Arnold will make being a republican hip, and you know how Californians are.

[Petronski]

"[Impeachment] was another thing I will never forgive the Republican Party for," Schwarzeneggar said. "We spent one year wasting time because there was a human failure. I was ashamed to call myself a Republican during that period."

[Kevin Curry]

Arnold is an unstoppable schwarzeneggernaught rolling in from left field.