Posted on 08/03/2003 9:22:57 PM PDT by BCrago66
Edited on 04/23/2004 12:05:45 AM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]
The White House had a shape-of-the-table announcement last week: North Korea would participate in six-sided talks with the U.S., China, Russia, South Korea and Japan. This was welcome but it changes nothing fundamental. Kim Jong Il has clearly demonstrated his capacity for falsehood in multilateral as well as bilateral forums. The bigger, and much worse, news is the overall course of events this summer.
(Excerpt) Read more at opinionjournal.com ...
Maybe you would agree, or have some clarifications to add to this: I think maybe that the allied mistakes that led to the Korean war happened at Yalta and in our decision not to support the Koumingdong. Stalin hadn't been adequately warned at Yalta before WWII was over as to how the allies would react if he engaged in Soviet imperialism. Chang Kaishek's rout emboldened the communists everywhere. We had appeased the Russians at the Elbe, and we had embarassed them in the Berlin airlift. And North Korea was ripe for the picking due to its wholesale domination by Kim Il Sung's dictatorship.
Also, there is a political/historical problem, in that the Koreans have not forgotten completely the horrors of the long Japanese occupation. I wouldn't think that North or South would like to see Japanese soldiers there again.
People keep underestimating the Skorean military--it is substantial. All it'd take would be a few nukes to achieve complete parity with NK, and China is likely aware of that. I do not believe they (SK) need the US as much as writers here believe. What they do need is some *will*...
.................North Korea.South Korea.U. S.
Active personnel...1,080,000.....550,000.37,500
Reserves.............600,000.....600,000....n/a
Battle tanks...........3,500.......2,280....116
Fighting vehicles......2,500.......2,480....126
Artillery.............10,000.......6,387.....45
Air defense guns......11,000.........270....n/a
Combat aircraft..........594.........470....100
Attack helicopters........24.........150....n/a
Combat ships.............159.........169....n/a
U.S. Forces, Korea / Combined Forces Command Combined Ground Component Command (GCC)
US Forces, Korea (USFK) is the joint headquarters through which US combat forces would be sent to the CFC's fighting components - the Ground, Air, Naval and Combined Marine Forces Component Commands. Major USFK Elements include the Eighth US Army, US Air Forces Korea (Seventh Air Force) and US Naval Forces Korea. USFK includes more than 85 active installations in the Republic of Korea and has about 37,500 US military personnel assigned in Korea. Major U.S. units in the ROK include the Eighth U.S. Army and Seventh Air Force.
Principal equipment in EUSA includes 140 M1A1 tanks, 170 Bradley armored vehicles, 30 155mm self-propelled howitzers, 30 MRLs as well as a wide range of surface-to-surface and surface-to-air missiles, e.g., Patriot, and 70 AH-64 helicopters. EUSA has the capability to perform required tasks under various circumstances using this equipment.
US Air Forces Korea possesses approximately 100 aircraft: advanced fighters, e.g., 70 F-16s, 20 A-10 anti-tank attack planes, various types of intelligence-collecting and reconnaissance aircraft including U-2s, and the newest transport aircraft. With this highly modern equipment, US Air Forces Korea has sufficient capability to launch all-weather attacks and to conduct air support operations under all circumstances. In the event the Seventh Fleet and the Seventh Air Force Command augment them, the capability of USFK will substantially increase both quantitatively and qualitatively.
Analysts: U.S. pullback from DMZ not likely to undercut deterrence
South Korea has the misfortune of a capital that sits within range of hostile weaponry. Less than 40 miles separate Seoul from North Korean missile and artillery units stacked just north of the DMZ.
"Seoul is within range of 130 mm guns and 170 mm long-range self-propelled guns," Dunnigan said. "But the biggest killer would be long-range rockets, mainly the 240 mm ones."
M-1978 / M1989 (KOKSAN) 170mm self propelled (SP) gun
estimated at "40,000 m" to "over 50km"
24 miles / 40 km = extended range full-bore hollow-base (ERFBHB)
30 miles / 50 km = extended range full-bore base-bleed (ERFBBB)
35 miles / 60 km = rocket assisted projectile (RAP)
According to one report, a South Korean security analyst suggested that DPRK artillery pieces of calibers 170mm and 240mm "could fire 10,000 rounds per minute to Seoul and its environs." The number of Koksan guns is not publicly reported, but it is reliably reported that North Korea has about 500 long-range artillery tubes within range of Seoul, double the levels of a the mid-1990s. Large caliber self propelled artillery pieces typically have a sustained rate of fire of between four and eight rounds per minute. This suggests a total rate of fire of artillery alone of between 2,000 and 4,000 rounds per minute. The DPRK's two hundred 240mm MRLs fire either 12 or 22 rounds, providing a maximum single salvo of no more than 4,400 rounds.
240MM ROCKET LAUNCHER M-1985 240MM ROCKET LAUNCHER M-1991
These launchers can fire a first strike of many thousands of missiles and return in a few minutes to protected caves or to alternate firing positions. The MRLs move out from underground facilities (UGFs), fire from preplanned firing positions, and return to the UGFs. Examination of the available data on the UGF sites suggests that a number of possible exit and return methods for the MRLs may be possible. In this case, the launchers move directly from the firing points to the UGFs. This procedure makes it difficult to target the launchers, because once they fire it only takes 75 seconds to return to their UGFs. The MRLs can fire their complete set of rockets in 44 seconds. Data from the Joint Precision Strike Demonstration Project Office indicates that the crew then needs two minutes to lower the launcher, raise the stabilizing pads, and quickly return to the UGF. This gives a total exposure time of 164 seconds. However, it is possible that the MRLs could displace faster than the JSPD case or that they might take longer. [SOURCE]
Range estimate is only 35k though.
I wonder what the training level is on this, and how many of the sites are known and pre-targetted. Unfortunately, if the above information is correct, we only have 45-60 major artillery pieces, so nearly all would have to be done via air-power.
This is a set battlefield, so likely North Korea has a well-established and diverse comunications grid in place - though also likely we know precisely where the overwhelming majority of their fixed artillery pieces sit - especially the ones in deployed position. They have quite a number of mobile ones, but I wonder if they are very functional if they have been training to shoot-and-move.
American B-2's could take out the WMD's and major structures. A few dozen Tomahawk missles, launched ahead of the Navy fighters would hit the North Korean missle facilities and airfields.
After an hour or day of total shock and awe, American radio broadcasts messages urging surrender to the North Korean troops and leaders.
I don't think that the shattered military and starving populace would choose to die for Kim Jong-Il.
When I began looking the information up for my post, I started with the idea that putting down scatterable mines and sub-munitions over the whole of the area that the artillery would come from would be doable. It may well be. There is no question that we would be able to bring a great deal of firepower to bear. The problem with relying wholly on the submunitions is that anything sheltered or unexposed will survive, and be capable of then firing. The MRLSs that the North Koreans have can move out, fire their dozen or two dozen rockets, and move back under cover for reloading within three minutes. To take these out requires singular munitions addressed against them.
The counter side of this is that many of N Koreas hardened facilities are 20km or so behind the DMZ, and further, the mountains limit the types of guns and rockets that can actually strike Seoul.
In a general strike, one has the potential of facing 8,000 large caliber artillery rounds hitting the northern part of a city of 10,000,000, in a predesignated fire pattern, in the first minute. One has a lot of loose ends to sweep up very rapidly. This really isn't a military attack, but rather a terror one against civilians.
The problem isn't the long part of the war. The problem is the first ten to fifteen minutes after the attack order is given. The North Koreans don't have to GO anywhere to strike targets. And after they have done so, if it is not they who have struck first without provocation (rhetorical or real) what will be the politics in South Korea and the U.S.?
Do not underestimate the enemy- the NK Army is well-trained and well-fed. While they do not have the logistical support necessary for a long war, we are not TALKING about a "long war". The problems for us arise in the first few hours of the next war (that is, civilian and military casualties that will horrify the world- and could cause "regime change" in South Korea, as well as here at home).
There is not the slightest doubt who would "win" this war (even if the Chinese came in). The question is whether we are willing to take these casualties.
I'm pretty sure that we are not.
ping
Some Things Never Change,,
All Roads Lead To Rome,,,,{{{{{{{{ KLANG }}}}}}}}
ping
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