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Posted on 08/01/2003 5:01:16 PM PDT by heleny
Congressman might run, too
Candidacy declaration first step to getting name on recall ballot
By Timm Herdt and John Mitchell, herdt@insidevc.com jmitchell@insidevc.com
August 1, 2003
To the growing list of potential candidates who may seek to replace Gov. Gray Davis should he be recalled on Oct. 7, add the name of nine-term Ventura County congressman Elton Gallegly.
Gallegly, R-Simi Valley, on Thursday filed a declaration of candidacy to run on the recall ballot -- an essential prelude to actually becoming a candidate, but not a formal entry into the race.
More than 60 people statewide have filed such declarations, including a dozen in Ventura County. All it takes to officially file is $3,500 and the signatures of 65 registered voters.
Gallegly becomes the second member of Congress to join a crowded field of Republicans to declare an interest, a field that also includes Rep. Darrell Issa of Vista, Sen. Tom McClintock of Thousand Oaks, Los Angeles businessman Bill Simon and, potentially, former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan.
"I'll be exploring all possibilities," Gallegly said as he filled out the form at the Ventura County Government Center. "Right now I'm just trying to get details out of the way, trying to stay one step ahead. It's better to be one step ahead than one step behind."
Political analysts say that Gallegly's ultimate decision, and that of dozens of other potential candidates, will depend largely on whether a big-name Democrat decides to break ranks and enter the race and whether Riordan officially gets in. The answers to those questions will be known at 5 p.m. Aug. 9 -- a week from Saturday -- when the filing period closes.
The recall ballot will pose two questions: Should Davis be recalled, and if a majority of voters decides he should be, who among a field of potential replacements should fill the remainder of his term?
"It's not surprising that Gallegly is thinking about it," said Republican political consultant Richard Temple. "There are so many other candidates who are not that far apart. There are all sorts of angles being played on this."
Asked to comment on Gallegly's entry into the race, state Democratic Party political adviser Bob Mulholland noted that the number of potential Republican contenders is growing by the day. "It's like a circus putting out a job notice," he said.
As a practical matter, members of Congress do not typically have strong name identification outside their districts and would be at an initial disadvantage against candidates such as Simon, McClintock, Issa and Riordan, all of whom have previously run on a statewide ballot.
"If a strong Republican gets in or a strong Democrat, the moderately pragmatic people will probably drop out," Temple said.
Democrats have thus far remained united behind Davis in opposing the recall. Strategically, Davis has a better chance of defeating the recall if there are no prominent Democrats among the long list of possible replacements.
Three Democratic members of the state's congressional delegation this week publicly suggested that their party is taking too big a risk in putting all its hopes on defeating the recall. They urged Sen. Dianne Feinstein to put her name among the potential replacements, suggesting Democrats then run a campaign asking voters to defeat the recall, but in case it passes, to also vote for Feinstein.
Should the field be left without a strong favorite -- a candidate with high name-recognition and financial resources -- the balloting could be fractured enough to allow someone with a relatively small percentage of the vote to finish on top.
That would make it possible, analysts say, for a candidate to focus on a single issue and capture a large enough share of the vote to win.
In his prepared statement announcing his intent, Gallegly made clear he would focus his campaign on the issue of illegal immigration.
"I firmly believe that illegal immigration is at the root of California's economic problems," Gallegly said. "It depresses wages, taxes our schools and health-care systems, and increases the burden on our criminal justice system."
Gallegly has $1.03 million in his congressional campaign account, most or all of which could be transferred to a gubernatorial account. He estimated that it would take at least $6 million to run an effective campaign.
His action means that the four congressional and legislative representatives who represent eastern Ventura County -- all Republicans -- have expressed an immediate interest in running for statewide office. In addition to Gallegly and McClintock, Assemblyman Keith Richman said this week he would run for governor if Riordan did not. And Assemblyman Tony Strickland of Moorpark is expected to formally announce his candidacy for the U.S. Senate soon.
Strickland said he would support McClintock if the senator officially enters the race, but that he welcomed Gallegly's interest in the campaign.
"It's better to have more choices than less," he said. "Here's another candidate who feels he could do a better job at leading the state than Gov. Davis."
I thought Gallegly was a moderate Republican, but I'm not sure. (He's not a liberal Republican, but I'm not sure he's conservative, either.)
Recently he sponsored the Identification Integrity Act of 2003 in the House to prohibit federal agencies from accepting foreign ID cards like the Mexican matricula consular cards or other foreign ID except for passports. I'm glad he's looking into exploiting Davis' weakness on illegal immigration, but so far I would prefer Tom McClintock for Governor.
That Assemblyman Tony Strickland will run for US Senate is news to me. I though he'd run for Tom McClintock's state senate seat when McClintock is termed out in 2004. Audra Strickland plans to run for the seat of her termed-out Asemblyman husband Tony in '04.
It's pretty amazing to me that congressman Gallegly is publicly saying the things he is about illegal immigration, which is truthful but rare to hear out loud anymore from the pc establishment.
What's McClintock's position on the matter, has he mentioned anything about what he would do, like maybe allow prop 187 to continue on through the courts?
Tom isn't termed-out until 2008, which presents Tony with a big problem. Tony was hoping that Tom would be elected State Controller in 2002, resulting in a special election for Tom's State Senate seat (which Tony would have likely won). But after Tom's narrow defeat, Tony has to find a new position after 2004. So he's been looking at possibly running for County Supevisor or U.S. Senate.
Of course if Tom should be elected Governor, Tony will immediately jump into the special election for Tom's vacant State Senate seat.
The Republican Party in Ventura County is split into two factions which have a long history of deeply disliking each other (and that's putting it very gently). There is no love lost between Gallegly and McClintock.
Tony Strickland is of course on Tom McClintock's side in these internecine battles (since Tony was a former staffer for Tom). Keith Richman, who represents the other Assembly district which is included in Tom's State Senate district, is a moderate-to-liberal Republican and falls in the other camp.
Richman will be termed-out in 2006, which gives him a little more time than Tony to find a new position. He's already run for mayor of the San Fernando Valley (and won), but since the overall succession vote failed it didn't mean anything. He can't go onto the State Senate as long as Tom is in the way. So he's been looking at running for a statewide office. Running for governor would give him some name recognition in preparation for a future statewide race.
"The Republican Party in Ventura County is split into two factions "
"It's pretty amazing to me that congressman Gallegly is publicly saying the things he is about illegal immigration"
not really. he's always in the "beltway"...not his district.
shows up here bout "re-election" time...
does he even know who "willie brown" is? n how to deal with him?
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Thanks for the clarification. The state Senate limit is 2 terms (8 years), but I forgot that they took effect in 1998, during Tom McClintock's first term.
That suggests why Gallegly is looking into running when he has little chance. I don't know anything about the local party politics, and I know hardly anything about him. (and he's my Congressman). I'm glad he's emphasizing illegal aliens, since many politicians are afraid to discuss that important issue, but I don't know if he has any idea of how to fix the budget problems.
Keith Richman, who represents the other Assembly district which is included in Tom's State Senate district, is a moderate-to-liberal Republican and falls in the other camp.
No, not Richman! He voted against the budget because it didn't tax&spend enough. He wanted a "compromise" budget that he fashioned with some democrat to include more tax increases.
Running for governor would give him some name recognition in preparation for a future statewide race.
Given that there may be 60 to over 200 candidates running for governor, I doubt the candidacy will enhance his (Richman's or anyone else's) name recognition.
I don't know. Obviously, he and the Republicans opposed AB60 or SB60, the illegal alien drivers license bill this year and last year and the in-state tuition bill last year. Tom's emphasis is reducing/limiting spending, which should include decreasing spending on illegal aliens, but he doesn't seem to emphasize or mention illegal aliens. You can ask him; he actually replies to emails.
Since Davis dropped the Prop. 187 appeal in favor of a phony "mediation," I don't think anyone can resurrect the appeal. I'd love to be wrong.
While scores of candidates isn't ideal, one or two would be worse because Davis would be able to use his proven-successful strategy (aka puke politics) of demonizing his opponent. With multiple opponents, he'll have more difficulty focusing only on the frontrunner. Also, more voters will find a candidate they really like, so that more voters would vote to recall Davis.
Not all of those who declared their candidacy will actually run, if they decide they don't have a chance. We'll see next week. After a few public opinion polls, the rest of the undecided public will choose between the few candidates with a real chance, and some more candidates might drop out of the race along the way.
Thanks for posting the info!
That's a very long story, and one I don't have time to go into in any detail. The division is only partly ideological. A lot of it is personal, and much of that traces back to a major incident in the 1986 Republican primary to select a U.S. Senate candidate. Congresswoman Bobbi Fiedler was one of many Republicans seeking the nomination, as was State Senator (and former Los Angeles Police Chief) Ed Davis. At one point Fiedler and Davis met to discuss Davis' possible withdrawal from the race. Davis claimed that Fiedler attempted to bribe him to withdraw and endorse her in exchange for her assistance in raising money to pay off his campaign debts. Davis had himself wired for the meeting, and Fiedler and her campaign manager (later husband) were consequently indicted for violating California election laws. The recording was ambiguous, and Fiedler and her manager were eventually acquitted. But it destroyed both her Senate campaign and Davis' Senate campaign, and left an enormous amount of bad blood. Other Republicans lined up behind one side or the other and took on that bad blood.
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