this is a much more profound shift than simple cyclical economics That's the most accurate point I've seen on this entire thread. The problem with focusing on H1-Bs is that it is already a dead issue. It is much more cost effective to have the programmers stay in their home country and outsource the services overseas.
So now the question becomes one of tariffs/protection. IIRC, in modern times, this country has never placed taxes on imported goods/services EXCEPT when it was proven that they were being sold BELOW their production costs or outright protection of certain industries; eg the Japanse steel/automotive import battles of the 1980s.
Since programming services outsourced to Indian companies are being provided above their cost of production (ie there aren't any gov't subsidies covering the differential), nor are there only 3 big software firms accounting for 100% of US production (a la autos), I find it very difficult to believe that the US will enact any type of tariffs.
If that is the case, then it is futile to waste any time fighting this issue. Given the state of communications technology, technical services can be easily outsourced to foreign countries. Low skill, geographically constrained (local) jobs are subect to displacement from (illegal) immigration.
The key is to find jobs that are local and require good English/inter-personal skills. I was having my car repaired at the local dealer and marveled at how busy it was. In heavily illegal SoCal, every single person was a native English speaker - not just the mechanics, but everyone.
Got me thinking (always a dangerous thing).
Excerpted and condensed from:
Adam Smith: The Wealth of Nations, Book 4, Chapter 2
Of Restraints upon the Importation from Foreign Countries
of such Goods as can be produced at Home
"There seem, however, to be two cases in which it will generally be advantageous to lay some burden upon foreign for the encouragement of domestic industry...
The first is, when some particular sort of industry is necessary for the defence of the country....
The second case, in which it will generally be advantageous to lay some burden upon foreign for the encouragement of domestic industry is, when some tax is imposed at home upon the produce of the latter. In this case, it seems reasonable that an equal tax should be imposed upon the like produce of the former....
As there are two cases in which it will generally be advantageous to lay some burden upon foreign for the encouragement of domestic industry, so there are two others in which it may sometimes be a matter of deliberation; in the one, how far it is proper to continue the free importation of certain foreign goods; and in the other, how far, or in what manner, it may be proper to restore that free importation after it has been for some time interrupted....
The case in which it may sometimes be a matter of deliberation how far it is proper to continue the free importation of certain foreign goods is, when some foreign nation restrains by high duties or prohibitions the importation of some of our manufactures into their country. Revenge in this case naturally dictates retaliation, and that we should impose the like duties and prohibitions upon the importation of some or all of their manufactures into ours....
The case in which it may sometimes be a matter of deliberation, how far, or in what manner, it is proper to restore the free importation of foreign goods, after it has been for some time interrupted, is, when particular manufactures, by means of high duties or prohibitions upon all foreign goods which can come into competition with them, have been so far extended as to employ a great multitude of hands. Humanity may in this case require that the freedom of trade should be restored only by slow gradations, and with a good deal of reserve and circumspection. Were those high duties and prohibitions taken away all at once, cheaper foreign goods of the same kind might be poured so fast into the home market as to deprive all at once many thousands of our people of their ordinary employment and means of subsistence. The disorder which this would occasion might no doubt be very considerable....
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