To: RJCogburn
I guess I am the only one at FR, but I think it is a brilliant idea. Markets yield valuble information. Why trust some dopey analyst on his opinion of the liklihood of unrest in a certain country, when they 10,000 most knowledgeable people in the world can meet in a market place to decide the issue?
2 posted on
07/30/2003 4:59:53 AM PDT by
Rodney King
(No, we can't all just get along.)
To: Rodney King
I think it is a brilliant idea.Also fascinating. But it should have been obvious it would not meet the smell test. A smart way to roll it out would have been for a trading company to launch a generic futures prediction market. After that was established, quietly add terrorism predictions to its portfolio.
To: Rodney King; snopercod; RandDisciple; Poohbah
20 posted on
07/30/2003 6:54:53 AM PDT by
RJCogburn
("You have my thanks and, with certain reservations, my respect."......Lawyer J. Noble Daggett)
To: Rodney King
No, you are not the only one.
It was a good idea from an academic point of view, but, perhaps a poor one from a political outlook. Me thinks the 'Rats "doth protest too much". This is just more faux outrage from them in another attempt to hit out at the current administration.
This "market" would also have allowed people hedge against political risk and so would have served a useful purpose regardless of any intelligence hints gathered.
At the worst, it was a low cost thought experiment that might have yielded some useful information (whether related to terrorism or not).
21 posted on
07/30/2003 7:15:22 AM PDT by
evilC
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