Posted on 07/25/2003 7:53:25 PM PDT by NormsRevenge
or a White House that would particularly like to see President Bush prevail in California in the 2004 election, the recall move that is threatening to topple Gov. Gray Davis, a Democrat, would seem, at first glance, like a gift.
But as a nervous White House contemplated the successes, so far, of the effort to oust Mr. Davis, it was hardly clear that the recall effort would provide the advantage Mr. Bush was seeking in the solidly Democratic state.
Some Republicans argued that the installation of a Republican governor in California would give Mr. Bush the organizational and fund-raising foundation needed to make a serious run there. But other Republicans, including several close to the White House, said the ouster of Mr. Davis could harm the president in California by removing a polarizing and unpopular Democrat whose presence would inspire high Republican turnout.
In his place, some Republicans fear, could be an inexperienced Republican struggling with the same budgetary problems that have contributed to Mr. Davis's difficulties.
"There're two ways of looking at this: one is that you have a strong Republican governor and the infrastructure that goes with it," a senior Republican Party strategist said, as the White House debated how to respond to these events. "The flip side is, You have Gray Davis with a 10 percent approval rating. Does that help Republicans?"
National Democratic leaders said they remained confident about their party's prospects in California next year, no matter what happens to Mr. Davis. One senior party official said that if Mr. Davis was ousted, Democrats would attempt to use the episode to turn out Democratic voters.
Still, this official said, the party had decided it would prefer to have Mr. Davis in power next year to provide a political base for the Democratic presidential candidate and to that end would discourage any Democrat from entering the race.
The situation is particularly difficult for this White House. Mr. Bush's advisers were embarrassed last year in their unsuccessful effort to engineer the nomination of Richard J. Riordan, the former mayor of Los Angeles, as the Republican challenger to Mr. Davis. He was defeated by a more conservative Republican, Bill Simon Jr., in the Republican primary.
Accordingly, Republicans in Washington and California said, the president could hardly afford to be viewed by California voters as meddling in the state's affairs at the time of a political and fiscal crisis.
Throughout the day, the normally sure-footed White House reacted tentatively to the events in California. Several Republicans close to the White House said they would like to see Arnold Schwarzenegger emerge as the Republican candidate to succeed Mr. Davis. His candidacy is hardly certain, however, and those same Republicans feel that the political caliber of the potential field declines sharply behind Mr. Schwarzenegger, as several other Bush associates observed yesterday.
But George Gorton, a senior adviser to Mr. Schwarzenegger, said he had not heard a word from the White House encouraging or discouraging his candidate from entering the race, notwithstanding the fact that Mr. Bush's senior adviser, Karl Rove, has long promoted the notion of a Schwarzenegger candidacy, albeit for 2006, when Mr. Davis's term is supposed to expire.
"None," Mr. Gorton said, a note of surprise in his voice. "They felt that they got involved in the Riordan thing, and it didn't work out for them, and they are now discouraged about California. I think they are probably just keeping a distant view of it."
Polls and demographics aside, Mr. Rove has long viewed California much the same way Ahab viewed the white whale. And while part of that is a feint, intended to force the Democratic presidential contender next year to spend time and money in a state that it should be able to take for granted, there is no doubt that a Republican victory in California would be grievous for Democrats.
Still, the White House was notably silent in response to the events in California; both Mr. Rove and Mr. Bush's campaign manager, Ken Mehlman, declined comment. Other Republicans observed that Democrats were eager to tie White House Republicans to the recall effort which Mr. Davis' aides have taken to calling a conservative coup d'etat and said that Mr. Bush's aides did not want to do anything to help them.
"This is up for Californians to decide," said Duf Sundheim, the California Republican chairman, who was in New York for the party's summer meeting, in a remark that was repeated almost word-for-word by other Republican leaders as the day went on.
Republicans close to Mr. Bush said they viewed Mr. Schwarzenegger as the strongest potential challenger to Mr. Davis, though they acknowledged that it was always a risk recruiting a newcomer to politics not to mention, to take over the management of a state facing a budget crisis of historic proportions.
By contrast, they expressed strong doubts about the campaign skills of two other Republicans who ran for governor last year, and who are considering running again, Mr. Riordan and Mr. Simon, and suggested that they would not be able to withstand the kind of fierce attacks that Mr. Davis has promised to keep his job.
Even if Mr. Bush's aides want to take a hand in the events in California, they are constrained by the fumble of last year when they tried to install Mr. Riordan as Mr. Davis's challenger. Mr. Riordan was defeated for the Republican nomination in a challenge from the right by Mr. Simon, who in turn was helped by television commercials by Mr. Davis attacking Mr. Riordan.
"I think the White House would be reluctant to inject themselves at this point," one senior California Republican strategist said. "I think they're kind of burned." Another senior Republican strategist said that given the confusion, and the conflicting scenarios of what could and might happen, the best thing the White House might do for now is nothing at all.
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John Jorsett has put up some interesting stuff!
That's all well and good for them. But we who live here need a solution to the multitude of problems caused by Davis' and the dims fiscal mismanagement IMMEDIATELY. It is OUR livelihoods -- and the wealth created by DECADES of hard work -- that are at stake NOW.
We WILL NOT sacrifice our fortunes for something as maudlin as a second GW Bush term or to obtain a net gain of another Republican in the senate. There are California problems at stake that must be solved by Californians.
Having said that, I will also say that GW's profligate spending (abeted by a Republican controlled House and Senate) is both outrageous and disgraceful. Rove would have us agree to sacrifice our livelihoods FOR THIS?
I for one in California suggest that it would be much more helpful to California if the Federal government would meet one of its primary duties and stop the flood of illegal migrans, which is causing tremendous harm to this state. After Rove and Bush have handled that, they can contact me for support in 2004.
Venting. :O)
Of all of the parties involved, on all of the various sides, and in all of the many backrooms where the real decisons are made ... does anyone actually care about what happens to the people of California? Seems like just another big boy power game to me.
Have you seen Willie Brown announce yet? He may be the dark horse in the race with Feinstein out.
Brilliance in action.
Not to put too fine a point on it, but Good, you deserved it Out-Of-Stater. Perhaps you don't understand why, and feel invigorated by this article, but you're dead wrong. You don't have to live with a booming cost of living, or your boss contemplating moving out of state-which is currently rated 50th in business friendliness. I can literally go on and on, all because Davis, with his 21% approval rating, can go lower at my expense by us twisting in the wind? You can make callous statements like the Bush Admin did in stability in Texas and not have to worry about anything, except some people on FR that challenged you, gee I really feel your pain dealing with the approbation.
Then take over next election with a GOP governor
Since you are so genuinely concerned about my state's peoples' plight, let me belay your fears. That is precisely what is going to happen in the Oct 7th election.
Exactly. That is yet another thing that I love about the USA. Because we are states, we have a smaller gov relating only to our area's issues. In our "national" media and mindset, we have a society that has far too many fail to understand that since it obviously doesn't directly relate to them, that they need to get the hell out of the way because that can't possibly relate to the weight of the discussion.
That's about the size of it.
You're not gonna go all Losertarian on us now are you? Just kidding.
Yes. I've heard him speak countless times and I believe there really is one. Tom McClintock. Read this about how he would fix it here. Hell, read the man's state website with all its published articles. The guy works harder and is more informed than any politician I've ever seen since Ronald Wilson Reagan.
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