Finally, It's Official: the Recession Ended 20 Months Ago

New York Times Online ^ | 7-17-03 | Daniel Altman

[The Electrician]

Let me be the first to speculate that Tom Daschle will be deeply saddened by this news. So will the other Demo talking heads who've been screaming the mantra of the "worst economy in the past fifty years". Oh, but this news won't stop them for a moment - in fact you will even hear on FR that the numbers do not reflect the reality that people are feeling "on the ground". While there is some truth to that, because it doesn't feel like the economy is doing well if you're working at a small fraction of your former income (or not working at all) - I have confidence in the economy these days - enough confidence to be launching a new small business (which I hope to make into a big business)... And I'm not the only one with such plans...

Also see this earlier thread based on an AP report.

[Support Free Republic]

Hi Mom!

[waterstraat]

The recession is still going on over here, no jobs for americans.

[SamAdams76]

I've been around long enough to remember the "malaise" of the 1970s and the recessions of the early 1980s and the early 1990s. Frankly, this recent economic "downturn" has been a breeze by comparison.

Sure, a bunch of useless dot.coms and criminal telecommunications firms bit the dust and many thousands of people lost their jobs, but the economy overall has been sound. Traffic is still heavy at rush hour, good restaurants still have a 1-2 hour waiting time and shopping malls are usually packed to capacity. My work (I deal in office equipment like high-speed printers and copiers) never slowed down and you still have to see a scalper if you want to see a good concert or a big sporting event.

I don't know, maybe I'm delirious. But I never noticed the recession in the first place. Now watch, I go into work tomorrow and get my pink slip.

[lasereye]

Here's some excerpts from the Reuters article on this:

U.S. GDP has been growing slowly since late 2001, and it now stands 3.3 percent above its pre-recession peak in the fourth quarter of 2000.

Hall said the panel had waited until it could be confident any potential future drop in activity would be a separate recession before placing its historical marker.

"The fact that the broadest, most comprehensive measure of economic activity is well above its pre-recession levels implied that any subsequent downturn in the economy would be a separate recession," the panel said in its statement.

"We don't know and we don't take a stand on what is ahead, but we do say that this one belongs in the record book," Hall said.

Panel members were also aware that 2004 is an election year and they had no desire to draw the type of criticism they did in 1992 when they called an end to the 1990-91 recession in December, one month after an election in which Republican President George Bush lost to Democrat Bill Clinton.

"This is not the first time that there has been some political sensitivity," Hall said. "We try very, very hard to try to essentially ignore politics."

[Sacajaweau]

It's difficult to make a count on the employment stats. Many people that get layed off are now "contract" workers. New people come into the market. Most of our local copmanies downsized 7 or 8 years ago...as the market changed but continue "employing" temps.

[Maria S]

Anyone remember those two little words that Greenspan used and no one paid any attention to? "Irrational exuberance"

I can remember in the 90's how everyone had a job (employers were begging for more workers)and a lot of employees were content to slack off...they "knew" their jobs were secure. I remember telling my husband to "Just wait and see...this economy won't hold and some of these goof offs will be looking for jobs one of these days."

[Regulator]

I've had to watch as more than a few highly talented engineers with advanced degrees have been shown the door. To date, I can't think of one that I could characterize as a "goof off". Some found jobs, one is now an Air Force pilot, and some are still looking. The layoffs continue.

And the people continuing to go out are not "goof offs" or easily labeled with other trailer trash throw away lines.

[zoen]

Recession Ended 20 Months Ago

Gee then why are all these people with out work?????

[Maria S]

"...trailer trash throw away lines..."

Great applause line! Kind of catchy!

[sourcery]

FYI

[Starwind]

Recession Ended 20 Months Ago

Obviously one more lagging indicator.

[cp124]

Traffic is still heavy at rush hour, good restaurants still have a 1-2 hour waiting time and shopping malls are usually packed to capacity.

Traffic is heavy with people going from thier job at Wendys to Home Depot to Wal-Mart. Refinancing and credit cards are the boom.

[chudogg]

Gee then why are all these people with out work?????

Could it be that recession and unemployment are two different terms??????

[speekinout]

I've had to watch as more than a few highly talented engineers with advanced degrees have been shown the door.

What kind of "engineers" were these? The term "engineer" is used rather widely these days.
I've seen some "engineers" with advanced degrees who were really not much more than highly paid Web page designers or Java programmers. It should have been clear that those job descriptions were going to move down the pay scale.
Software experts whose talent is knowing just a few specific software products have a short career. Unless they're lucky enough to have picked one that has a long shelf life - and no one ever knows in advance.

[MalcolmS]

>>Gee then why are all these people with out work?????

It's my fault, I confess. I, and thousands of others keep building machines and factories and computers so we can do more work with fewer people. We need 3-4% growth in the economy to maintain a steady employment rate. That, and maybe outsourcing.

[Jorge]

I've been around long enough to remember the "malaise" of the 1970s and the recessions of the early 1980s and the early 1990s. Frankly, this recent economic "downturn" has been a breeze by comparison.

Exactly. These are great times compared to the 1970s.

And even during the 70s I got tired of hearing people whining and complaining about how bad things were.

[UnBlinkingEye]

What is your occupation?