Zimbabwe -- Mbeki a dishonest broker: analysts

Financial Gazette (Zim) ^ | July 17, 2003 | Brian Mangwende, Chief Reporter

[Clive]

SOUTH African President Thabo Mbeki this week came in for flak as a dishonest broker, with political commentators accusing him of having a guarded motive in his handling of the country?s worsening economic and political crisis.

They decried the fact that American President George W Bush whose high profile visit to Africa last week "signified nothing" had been swayed by Mbeki's arguments and subsequently bought into the South African leader?s scheme.

Eliphas Mukonowe-shuro, a political analyst and adviser to opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) president Morgan Tsvangirai, said Mbeki was very much aware of the gravity of Zimbabwe's problems.

Mukonoweshuro said Mbeki may be deliberately downplaying the crisis in Zimbabwe in order to hasten the country's economic collapse and give South Africa an unrivalled economic edge in the region.

Besides, Mbeki was intent to capture Zimbabwe?s skilled labour force, likely to take flight from the country because of poor economic fundamentals.

"His stance is not based on principles," said Mukonoweshuro. "Mbeki should realise that if it were not for regional and international pressure, South Africa would not have done away with the apartheid regime. He would still be in exile if that pressure was not applied to bring democracy to South Africa."

Mukonoweshuro added bluntly: "If our economy collapses, we, as evidenced by what is currently happening, will see our skilled labour migrate to South Africa and serve their interests at no cost to them. Zimbabwe"s losses are South Africa"s gains."

Mukonoweshuro said a strong Zimbabwean economy would be an impediment to a drive by South African business to penetrate into regional markets.

Zimbabwe, which intervened in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Mozambique to ostensibly rescue the two countries from civil rebellion, was overtaken by South Africa in the penetration of DRC and Mozambican markets once war stopped in the two countries.

Mukonoweshuro asked: "What is South Africa doing in the DRC and Burundi and why does Mbeki want to send troops to Liberia if he believes in the theory of quiet diplomacy? It just shows diplomatic naiveté on his part."

Lovemore Madhuku, a constitutional law expert and University of Zimbabwe lecturer, agreed. "How is Mbeki going to explain that contradiction?" Madhuku asked.

Critics said Mbeki"s tactics amounted to trashing the opposition MDC.

"Mbeki's stance has exposed the MDC in that they had created an impression that they were placing a lot of faith in the Bush visit," Madhuku said. "If Zimbabweans are going to resolve their own problems then one can not determine the pace at which this would be done. Bush and Mbeki's stance reflects the interests of their two countries at the expense of Zimbabwe. The Americans don't want to antagonise the South Africans because of their trade interests in that country."

Brian Kagoro, the coordinator of Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition, said Mbeki must do everything in his power to pressure for reform in the country, moreso a return to dialogue.

But critics also said that Tsvangirai had blundered by underestimating Mbeki's friendship to Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe.

He banked too much on Mbeki to woo the American president to oust Mugabe or force a re-run of the disputed presidential election.

But this did not happen. Instead, Bush backed Mbeki's strategy.

Mukonoweshuro added: "Like anywhere in the world where there is conflict, the affected nation is expected to turn to regional and international leaders for assistance. I don't believe that anyone expected Bush to come and wave a magic wand and bring things back to normal."

He said there was nothing new in Mbeki's statement as he has always maintained that a solution to the Zimbabwean crisis lies with the Zimbabwean people.

Castigating South Africa for taking sides, Kagoro said: "The South Africans have always doubted the MDC's capacity and credibility to run the country and they are persuaded that the MDC is too linked to Western powers. As long as the balance of power is in favour of ZANU PF, they will always say 'let them solve their own problems', but if there is a slight shift, for instance during the last stayaway, they rushed here and called for a resumption of dialogue.

"Their foreign minister is on record saying that there will be no condemnation of Mugabe's government as long as the ANC is in power. South Africa's leaders have repeatedly said there is no crisis in Zimbabwe. Up to now, South Africa has not condemned human rights abuses here," Kagoro said.

"Both leaders maintained their positions for the call to the return of democracy in Zimbabwe. There are fruits to bear if there is a speedy solution to this. Mbeki has a mutual responsibility to talk through the Zimbabwean problem. Although no ultimatum was issued, there is evidence that the two leaders gave themselves a time frame in which Zimbabweans should resolve the crisis."

[Clive]

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