The reason these guys won't run, is because they are smart.
If they weren't smart, they would not be successful in their respective careers.
And, because they are smart, they know that a Republican cannot win in Washington state.
(certainly not a conservative Republican - and do you really want the "Dan Evans" or "Mainstream Republican" variety?)
Washington state is controlled by the King County leftist socialist/communist voting block.
Until that changes, Republicans should not waste money on the governorship.
The money is better spent to undermine the entrenched democRAT machine on the local level.
Your analysis is right on the money. Washington needs to be viewed as two states.
Western Washington has 78% of the population. It is a rain forest, predominantly suburban with some large cities, environmentally green, socially liberal and highly secular.
Eastern Washington has 22% of the population. It is a desert, predominantly rural with no large cities, environmentally anti-green, socially conservative and highly religious.
To Republicans, Washington is two states unhappily married at the Cascades.
In Western Washington, Republicans are fiscally conservative, environmentally green, socially liberal and secular. Rather than vote for an Eastern Washington-style Republican – the kind that would excite FReepers – they will vote Democratic.
In Eastern Washington, Republicans are fiscally conservative, environmentally anti-green, socially conservative and religious. Rather than vote for a Western Washington-style Republican – the kind that FReepers would call a “RINO” – they will stay home.
To Democrats, Washington is one state. The only Democratic strength in Eastern Washington is in the poorer areas of Spokane, Yakima and Tri-Cities. Thus, in Washington, Democrats can speak with one voice.
For statewide office, there are certain combinations that produce certain results, and you can almost bank on them.
- If you run a Hard Right Republican against a Centrist Democrat, the Democrat wins. (Locke over Craswell, 1996)
- If you run a Hard Right Republican against a Hard Left Democrat, the Democrat wins. (Lowry over Eikenberry, 1992; Murray over Smith, 1998)
- If you run a Centrist Republican against a Centrist Democrat, the Democrat usually wins, but it will be close. (Cantwell over Gorton, 2000)
- If you run a Centrist Republican against a Hard Left Democrat, the Republican wins. (Spellman over McDermott, 1980)
There are three solutions to this problem.
- Western Washington Republicans can swallow hard and vote for people whose environmental, religious and social views they find repugnant.
- Eastern Washington Republicans can swallow hard and vote for people whose environmental, religious and social views they find repugnant.
- Eastern Washington can secede from Olympia, strike a deal with Idaho and Congress, and merge into Idaho.
Until then, we will have an intractable problem, and Washington will continue to be a socialist entity.