Posted on 07/15/2003 6:35:54 PM PDT by Concordant_Opposition
US WARNED OF "IMMINENT" NUCLEAR PERIL
July 16 2003 By Shane Green (Tokyo) & Louise Dodson (Canberra)
Former United States Defence Secretary William Perry has warned that the US and North Korea are drifting towards war, with an "imminent danger" of nuclear explosions in American cities.
His chilling assessment of the communist state's nuclear program came as an increasingly worried China intervened, revealing a push for talks and sending a special envoy to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-il.
Mr Perry, in an interview with the Washington Post, warned that time was running out in the nuclear crisis. "I think we are losing control of the situation," said the Clinton-era defence chief.
He warned that North Korea could soon begin exporting nuclear weapons to terrorists and other adversaries of the US, posing "an imminent danger of nuclear weapons being detonated in American cities".
Referring to reports that North Korea had begun reprocessing spent nuclear fuel rods to make weapons-grade plutonium, Mr Perry said: "I have thought for some months that if the North Koreans moved toward processing, then we are on a path toward war."
North Korea's Yongbyon nuclear facility has about 8000 spent fuel rods capable of producing enough plutonium to make between six and 12 nuclear weapons. South Korean intelligence reported last week that reprocessing had begun.
Mr Perry oversaw former US president Bill Clinton's plan for a military strike against the Yongbyon nuclear facility a decade ago. The strike was never carried out after a deal was reached with Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear ambitions in return for energy aid.
The current crisis was triggered by North Korea's admission last October that it had a nuclear arms program.
Mr Perry said the US policy on North Korea was in disarray, with President George Bush to blame for an absence of negotiations. "I think he has come to the conclusion that Kim Jong-il is evil and loathsome and it is immoral to negotiate with him," Mr Perry said.
With the crisis deteriorating, it was revealed yesterday that China - a mentor of North Korea - had intervened with a compromise plan for talks.
Washington has insisted on multilateral talks, while North Korea wants only direct talks with the US. Under the Chinese plan, there would be multilateral talks first, with direct talks on the sidelines.
News of the proposal followed a rare visit by Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister Dai Bingguo to North Korean leader Kim Jong-il. China's state Xinhua news agency said the two men had "in-depth discussions on issues of mutual concern" in the North Korean capital, Pyongyang.
In Manila, meanwhile, Prime Minister John Mr Howard yesterday dismissed claims that North Korea would target Australia with nuclear weapons.
Mr Howard said North Korea posed no nuclear threat to Australia, and the Government would not be deterred from involvement in an anti-proliferation initiative agreed to in Brisbane last week.
President Bush plans to exert pressure on Pyongyang by intercepting North Korean vessels suspected of carrying components for nuclear weapons or missiles technologies.
Kim Myong-Chol, of the Centre for Korean-American Peace, said on Monday night that if North Korean ships were stopped at sea, its nuclear arsenal could be turned on Australia. "If Australia becomes part of American manipulation against North Korea, North Korea reserve the right to strike back on Australia," Mr Myong-Chol told ABC TV's Lateline.
The Government and Labor both dismissed the claims yesterday, saying North Korea did not have the ability to launch a nuclear strike on Australia even if it wanted to.
Foreign Minister Alexander Downer said Mr Myong-Chol was a self-appointed spokesman with no international standing.
The North Korean embassy in Canberra also said its country had no reason to bomb Australia.
While it's true that the Chicoms have every interest to keep NK afloat it's not very likely that they're playing a devious game with us. I'm sure their hardliners would like the standoff to continue to our embarassment, but even they can't control the manner in which NK plays its cards.
Ever since the PRC normalized relations with the ROK, their alliance with DPRK has pretty much become an alliance by default - in the sense that the two will never be enemies. As I've mentioned, Kim's able to do things that even the Chinese don't approve of, since he correctly assumes that under no circumstances will Beijing seriously punish his actions.
If that's Dubya's position, can't say I disagree.
Sorry for the double. Trying to get myself to remember to do the paragraph thing.
,,, China is moving into the Panama Canal, the Bahamas and Africa, securing minerals and trade routes. It can switch it's factory workers into military uniforms in a flash and have Beijing's population underground in about 20 minutes. Any ideas which foreign country holds the most US Treasury bonds? Don't think I'm a fan of China, it's just that they're watching the US run into major debt over Iraq whilst they're taking US jobs away and using US dollars to work the room quietly in the South Pacific, central America and lots of other places. The crap's going on everywhere and right now, Hong Kong becoming a second Taiwan is probably their only immediate concern.
They might be willing, but they may not be able. Their Air Force pilots only get about 5 hours flight time per year due to fuel shortages. How long ya figure their fuel might hold out during a war?
Australia and Japan are considering becoming nuclear powers, and could easily outmatch China's pitiful arsenal. Backing the wrong horse could prove to be massive self inflicted damage to China's long term plans.
That's to say nothing about pissing us off. If China's worst problems were how to take out the neighbors, it would still be a managable problem. Trying to sucker punch us has been tried before, with universally poor results. Right now would be a particularly bad time for them to try and cross us.
They'd be far smarter to attack North Korea than to attack us.
It would be very very bad.
N.K. being a small nation would not require very many stikes, two or three would do the job.
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