US warned of 'imminent' nuclear peril

The Age (Australia) ^ | 7/16/2003 | Shane Green & Louise Dodson

[Filibuster_60]

I don't trust the ChiComms at all. I do not believe NK blows its nose without the PRC knowing about it and being a part of it.

While it's true that the Chicoms have every interest to keep NK afloat it's not very likely that they're playing a devious game with us. I'm sure their hardliners would like the standoff to continue to our embarassment, but even they can't control the manner in which NK plays its cards.

Ever since the PRC normalized relations with the ROK, their alliance with DPRK has pretty much become an alliance by default - in the sense that the two will never be enemies. As I've mentioned, Kim's able to do things that even the Chinese don't approve of, since he correctly assumes that under no circumstances will Beijing seriously punish his actions.

[BikerNYC]

You would start a decent size nuclear war to prevent the off chance that LA might be nuked by a nut? If that's the case, General Turgidson, launch now, before they get a chance to see the Big Board. ("You can't fight here! This is the war room!")

[thepainster]

I disagree with your accessment of George W. When it comes to national defence, I believe the president does what he sincerely believes in his heart is best for the American people.

On domestic issues, well that's another story......

[McGavin999]

The Chinese are terrified of Japan going nuclear. If anything will get them going on this it's the thought that unless they do something quick the Japanese will have to become a nuclear power in order to defend themselves.

[PatrioticAmerican]

I see we haven't paid enough attention to the children running North Korea. I guess they want their time in the sandbox. They want a war? Well, let's give them one. They couldn't possibly muster an army willing to fight more than a day.

[PatrioticAmerican]

P.S. This has nothing to do with Bush, Klintoon, or anyone else. This is just a big cry-baby leadership wanting attention and are willing to throw a fit to get it.

[JusPasenThru]

Do you not think that the NKers would nuke L.A. if they had the chance?

[Filibuster_60]

It's a very tough call for China. Unlike 50 years ago they now have compelling interests at stake to prevent a war through any methods. Crossing the Yalu this time isn't an operation they'll undertake with ideological enthusiasm, especially since they don't want to end up in a shooting match against two of their biggest trading partners.

[squidly]

"I think he has come to the conclusion that Kim Jong-il is evil and loathsome and it is immoral to negotiate with him," Mr Perry said. If that's Dubya's position, can't say I disagree.

[squidly]

"I think he has come to the conclusion that Kim Jong-il is evil and loathsome and it is immoral to negotiate with him," Mr Perry said.

If that's Dubya's position, can't say I disagree.

Sorry for the double. Trying to get myself to remember to do the paragraph thing.

[shaggy eel]

China has to be one of the most short-sighted countries in history.

,,, China is moving into the Panama Canal, the Bahamas and Africa, securing minerals and trade routes. It can switch it's factory workers into military uniforms in a flash and have Beijing's population underground in about 20 minutes. Any ideas which foreign country holds the most US Treasury bonds? Don't think I'm a fan of China, it's just that they're watching the US run into major debt over Iraq whilst they're taking US jobs away and using US dollars to work the room quietly in the South Pacific, central America and lots of other places. The crap's going on everywhere and right now, Hong Kong becoming a second Taiwan is probably their only immediate concern.

[squidly]

They couldn't possibly muster an army willing to fight more than a day.

They might be willing, but they may not be able. Their Air Force pilots only get about 5 hours flight time per year due to fuel shortages. How long ya figure their fuel might hold out during a war?

[Steel Wolf]

China has been very happy to see North and South Korea divided. Were it to break out into war, however, they've got nothing to gain and everything to lose by backing North Korea. South Korea and Japan can hit the Chinese economy below the waterline, which could destabilize the entire Chinese government.

Australia and Japan are considering becoming nuclear powers, and could easily outmatch China's pitiful arsenal. Backing the wrong horse could prove to be massive self inflicted damage to China's long term plans.

That's to say nothing about pissing us off. If China's worst problems were how to take out the neighbors, it would still be a managable problem. Trying to sucker punch us has been tried before, with universally poor results. Right now would be a particularly bad time for them to try and cross us.

They'd be far smarter to attack North Korea than to attack us.

[Filibuster_60]

Empires built on repression and coercion ultimately don't have that much staying power, however well-armed and economically vibrant. Even the Chicoms probably realize this. Their thinking is definitely more defensive than many of us assume. In their minds we'll always be a bigger threat to them than they could be to us.

Personally I think the Chinese are in fact paralyzed by this crisis - it brings to the forefront the contradictions of their foreign policy goals and exposes their lack of confidence in their ability to resolve something to the world's benefit.

[jpsb]

It is my understanding that no nation can withstand the detonation of a dozen or so well placed nukes. Imagine the top 12 cities in the USA reduced to rubble, millions dead and many millions more needing medical attention.

It would be very very bad.

N.K. being a small nation would not require very many stikes, two or three would do the job.

[Filibuster_60]

What NK's doing now definitely threatens China's long-term plans. The Chicoms aim to minimize Asia's reaction to their rapidly increasing economic and military muscle, but if they don't give the impression that they're playing a constructive role in Korea, that won't be achievable.

[shaggy eel]

,,, empires don't last and everyone has found that out, no matter what they're built on. China has embraced Capitalism without wanting to call it that. Their cashflow comes from a hand they don't want to bite... accordingly, the dispatched envoy to Pyongyang. The smart thing to do now is position some heat on a US base in Japan, that can be scrambled within fifteen minutes. A lazy sub or two off the coast as a "play ball with us or we'll stick the bat up your arse" move would be perfectly understandable too.

[PatrioticAmerican]

That seems to be true as well.

[jpsb]

Truman was a fool. MacAuthur was correct

[Filibuster_60]

The pieces for a preemptive strike on NK have already moved into position. In fact our beefed-up air and naval presence is probably what makes NK so touchy.