Iranian Alert -- DAY 35 -- LIVE THREAD PING LIST

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Join Us at the Iranian Alert -- DAY 35 -- LIVE THREAD PING LIST

Live Thread Ping List | 7.14.2003 | DoctorZIn

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End of the road for EU engagement of Iran?

Monday, July 14, 2003 - ©2003 IranMania.com

TEHRAN, July 14 (AFP) - The US administration has been wielding the stick against Iran by lumping it into its "axis of evil" and following up with almost daily accusations of misconduct. The European Union has preferred to go for the carrot.

Seeing negotiations as the way ahead, EU member states have been dangling what could be a lucrative trade and cooperation agreement in exchange for concessions in four areas of major concern: Iran's nuclear programme, contacts with groups deemed "terrorist", the Middle East peace process and human rights.

But one year down the road, EU diplomats feel they are hitting their heads against a brick wall.

"There is a degree of major frustration. There is a chink of light on the nuclear issue, total immobility on human rights, some movement but not much on terrorism and nothing at all on the Middle East peace process," said one Tehran-based European ambassador.

The EU has been at the forefront of pressure on Iran to allow tougher International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections of its suspect nuclear programme, something that Iran has resisted but will nevertheless continue discussing with the IAEA in the coming weeks.

But its verbal efforts to reassure the world that it is not using an atomic energy programme as a cover to acquire nuclear weapons have to some extent been undone by an announcement just two days ahead of a visit by IAEA director Mohammad ElBaradei that it had conducted a succesful final test of a ballistic missile capable of hitting Israel.

"Iran claims to have peaceful intentions but that doesn't mean a thing," Germany's Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer said earlier this month.

He was followed up by Britain's Foreign Secretary Jack Straw, who on a visit here bluntly warned that no tougher IAEA inspections meant no trade deal.

"The first consequence, obviously, if they fail to sign up, is that they fail to make progress on a host of other issues on which they do want progress, for example on a trade and cooperation agreement," he said.

On human rights, the EU has watched Iran's elected reformist camp -- with whom it is engaging -- show its powerlessness when it comes to defending the right to peaceful protest against a crackdown by unelected hardline institutions.

"To be honest, the only real concession on human rights we've seen is a temporary suspension of executions by stoning. But when you see 4,000 people arrested for protesting, it's a case of one step forward, two steps back," noted one EU troika diplomat engaged in the talks here.

On terrorism, where the United States has accused Iran of harbouring and not arresting fugitive al-Qaeda members, the Europeans also appear deeply frustrated. Some diplomats accuse Iran of attempting to use al-Qaeda detainees -- some of whom are believed to be senior -- as bargaining chips.

And on the Middle East crisis, EU appeals that Iran tone down its anti-Israeli rhetoric have been quickly followed up by the praising of Palestinian suicide bombers at Friday prayers here.

"The clock is ticking as far as the European approach is concerned, and the warning signs have been hoisted," a European ambassador said.

But Iran, no stranger to threats and warnings, is keen to publicly show that it is taking it all in its stride.

"The commercial cooperation accord would be profitable for both sides, so this cannot be used as leverage," foreign ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi told reporters.

"Sanctions against the Islamic republic have been ineffective. The Europeans should be careful about what they say and avoid using threats."

So can it be described as a diplomtic endgame?

"I wouldn't go so far as to call it that," an EU member-state's ambassador here said. "Military action is not on the cards at all, and I emphasise that strongly."

The likely consequence, EU diplomats say, is that their bid to engage the Islamic republic is put on hold, or in other words less of the carrot and more of the stick.

"Scheduling problems" have already been reported for their latest installment of talks on heightened trade.

"Companies from individual member states are doing business and will continue to do business in Iran," another senior EU diplomat said. "But there won't be any trade agreement. In fact, we are going to have to sit down again and reexamine our entire strategy."

http://www.iranmania.com/News/ArticleView/Default.asp?NewsCode=16959&NewsKind=Current%20Affairs

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Is Iran next?

Joel Mowbray
July 14, 2003

With turmoil in Iran gaining more and more attention—at least when Liberia isn’t taking center stage—the media guessing game about the Persian nation has kicked into high-gear: is Iran next? Of course the question implies military action, but Iran could be “next”—just not in the military sense.

Last Wednesday marked the fourth anniversary of the July 9, 1999 crackdown on peaceful protesters at Tehran University, which immediately triggered more than 15,000 demonstrators to take to the streets. Even though the Iranian regime has recently jailed hundreds of the freedom movement’s leaders—and thousands of people in all—as many as 10,000 protesters marked the anniversary in Tehran alone. Iranians demanding freedom and a truly democratic government were met with tear gas and wide scale arrests.

The international press has labeled the demonstrators “students,” but that’s quite misleading. Students account for most of the leaders of the peace protests, but the movement has stretched into working class and upper-middle class neighborhoods alike—and the government is as unpopular as any time since the fall of the Shah in 1979. The protesters want what many Americans take for granted: freedom. They want to be able to wear jeans and a t-shirt, listen to pop music on a boom box, and yes, to choose their own government.

Iran is a country with a rich cultural heritage, one that is quite capable of sustaining an American-style government. The population is well-educated, and the 70% of the country under the age of 25 is largely secular. Unlike most Middle Eastern countries where Islamic fundamentalism has a certain appeal because it has never taken the reins of power, Iran is a nation whose citizens have had more than twenty years to develop their disdain for fundamentalist rule. They are hungry for a homeland that looks more like America.

Too bad the U.S. State Department hasn’t been helping them reach that goal.

To listen to the diplomats at Foggy Bottom, Iran is a country divided between the religious “hardliners” and the moderate “reformers.” State’s number-two official actually called Iran a “democracy” in an interview with the Los Angeles Times this February. Give the ruling mullahs credit for this much—they managed to dupe the U.S. State Department.

The Iranian mullahs pulled off an impressive marketing job by holding two consecutive elections in which a “reformer” won the Presidency and then allowing the “reformers” to win a majority of parliament in the 2000 election. Beneath the surface, though, the story is much different. The Council of Guardians, a panel of twelve mullahs that controls most of Iran, vetted all candidates for President and Parliament. Even if the “reformers” who control the Parliament are actual reformers, they have little power to change anything. The Council of Guardians can veto any bill it chooses to—and the Parliament can doing nothing more.

But the greatest—and most dangerous—myth that the mullahs have managed to perpetuate is that President Mohammad Khatami is a “reformer.” What most don’t realize is that he spent a decade as Iran’s chief censor, from 1982 to 1992, where he censored over 600 publications. He was one of 238 people who placed their hats in the ring—and 234 were declared ineligible by the Council of Guardians. In other words, Khatami was only of four candidates deemed acceptable by the mullahs.

Even though the elections were hardly more democratic than those found in the old Soviet Union, Iran’s attempts to dress them up as something more apparently worked. Secretary of State Colin Powell earlier this month called President Khatami “freely elected.” But the harm caused by Powell’s department runs much deeper than mere rhetoric.

For several years now, State has been trying to “engage” the mullahs. That approach has yielded little; the mullahs are still brutally repressing the Iranian people, and their efforts to develop nukes have not even slowed. The alternative approach isn’t a military one, though. State could truly support the protesters—as President Bush has repeatedly done—and it could refuse to legitimize a crumbling regime with more “talks.”

These steps wouldn’t be a panacea—but they would be a crucial place to start.

©2003 Joel Mowbray

http://www.townhall.com/columnists/joelmowbray/jm20030714.shtml

IRAN CONSIDERS WITHDRAWAL FROM NPT

NICOSIA [MENL] -- Iran is considering withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to prevent international inspections of Teheran's suspected nuclear weapons program.

A leading Iranian official has urged the ruling clergy to follow the steps of North Korea and withdraw from the NPT. The official said the NPT will be used by the United States to provide full access to inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency to Iranian nuclear facilities.

"The best and reasonable solution for Iran is withdrawing from the NPT," Hossain Shariatmadari, editor of the Kayhan daily and a leading aide to Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei, said.

Kayhan is regarded as the voice of Khamenei and the ruling clergy. Khamenei is said to have control over Iran's nuclear and other strategic programs.

http://www.menewsline.com/stories/2003/july/07_14_1.html

US Senator, John Cornyn, affirms US support of Iranian Freedom Movement

SMCCDI (Information Service)
Jul 13, 2003

The famous and influent Senator "John Cornyn" (R-Texas) appreard, this evening, in a SMCCDI's event organized for the commemoration of the 4th anniversary of the 1999 Student Uprising in Iran. The meeting took place in the Texan city of Dallas and the Senator's speech was broadcasted, as well and in live, for another gathering organized by the Mouvement in the City of Houston (Texsa/USA).

In his speech, John Cornyn slammed the ruling Therocratic regime and affirmed the support of the Iranian secular forces by the US administration and many of the American legislators. Defending the famous "Iran Democracy Act" introduced by Senator Sam Brownback and co-sponsored by several US legislators, such as himself, he stated: "everyone outside Iran has heard the cry of Iranians for Freedom".

"It's our duty to come to the rescue of the Iranians seeking a peaceful transition to the regime of their choice and no one doubt about the issue of Free elections that must take place in this country" he emphasized.

Answering to the complilation of questions gathered from hundreds of participants in both Dallas and Houston meeting, he stated:" We will use of all diplomatic tools in order to ask from our allies to support the Iranians and nor an illegitimate regime".

The two meetings became highly mediatised as several US TV channels, such as, CBS, NBC and Warner made coverages of the event and interviewed the Senator and several of the SMCCDI's members. The footages were shown, this evening, in most Texan channels.

Several members of the Mouvement, such as Iman Nazem, Samira Gharagozloo, Alex Zarrabi and Aryo Pirouznia spoke in this evening gatherings and thanked the good hearted American people and their current administration for their support of the oppressed Iranian Nation.

Pirouznia who welcomed the Senator at the podium, stated:" Men of dignity and integrity, such as Mr. Cornyn, are here to state that our compatriots sacrifices are not in vain and that they're supported in their actions of seeking regime change in Iran. A regime change intending to replace the rule of Theocracy by Democracy and the darknesss of fanatism and terrorism by knowledge and peace".

"We look for the increase of pressures on the Islamic regime and its allies in order to favorise a smoother transition that will benefit not only the Iranians but especially the Free World. A transition that will avoid other tragedies, such as, those witnessed on September 11th in America." he added.

The full audio recording of the Senator's speech as well as the footages of the Tv interviews will be available, soon, on the Audio-video section of the SMCCDI's website.

http://www.daneshjoo.org/generalnews/article/publish/article_1136.shtml

Doc, I have a question...
What kind of supports The US Senate can give Iranian freedom fighters?
Joining meetings is really positive but what else they can do?
We know they gave money to inaugurate TV Stations and Radio Stations. However all of them have been jammed so far.

(( Radio Farda and Radio Free Iran, running by the US Govt. cant be heard fine in most parts of Iran )).
Let us know what else they did or intend to do?

Thanks Doc!

RE #6

Pulling out of NPT? Iran is learning from N. Korea. I think that Iran and N. Korea are trying to create concurrent crises to spread America's resources.

Re #8

How about a Commando raid on jamming facilities in Cuba?

Re #8

By the way, I believe that the phase of mostly non-violent demonstrations is over. Now they need to use guns.

FOX web site is running stories on death of Canadian/Iranian photographer,(AP) but no mention of any other journalists imprisoned; also "Khatami says he will step down". Old stories for us but getting some attention on FOX is good.

CNN.com is running Kazemi's death also,(AP) but again, no mention of other journalists.

IRAN CONSIDERS WITHDRAWAL FROM NPT

If there was a "signal to the world" that Iran isn't ready to play fair with their own people or their neighbors, this is it. We already have one nuclear despot in the world, does the nearly impotent world community want to have a two? Each with missiles and weapons that can reach significant population centers without even being loaned out to deniable terrorist factions. This is the future that accomidation and inaction brings.

Support the students for they are the soldiers of the present. Think of the lives of the soldiers of the future they will save if they are sucessful.

To be honest, the only real concession on human rights we've seen is a temporary suspension of executions by stoning.

And some people say that progress isn't being made!
/Sarcasm

The lamestream media overplayed the Spanish cameraman who got killed in Baghdad but is silent about media kidnappings in Iran.

"Support the students for they are the soldiers of the present. Think of the lives of the soldiers of the future they will save if they are sucessful."

Couldn't have said it better myself.

To be honest, the only real concession on human rights we've seen is a temporary suspension of executions by stoning.

Actually, they ran out of rocks...

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,91803,00.html

FOX STORY!

They had nothing to lose there. With Iran, they might be seen as showing support for the demonstrators. In other words, agreeing with Bush. Heaven Forbid!