Hispanic age, gender gaps emerge (Gag alert)

Special to the El PasoTimes ^ | Sunday, July 13, 2003 | Chuck Raasch

[FryingPan101]

WASHINGTON -- As postwar problems in Iraq leave a coat of doubt on George W. Bush's re-election, other early indicators of the 2004 election are also taking shape. They include a continued divide between voters based on their marital status, and emerging age and gender gaps among Hispanics.

It's uncertain how much the lack of weapons of mass destruction will corrode Bush's re-election chances. The news recently focused more on whether Bush used bogus intelligence to justify the war than on the postwar search for WMD.

As a result, polls have shown diminished optimism over Iraq, with the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press saying that those who described the military effort in the country as going "very well" fell from 61 percent in April to 23 percent in July.

The silver lining for Bush politically? Democrats have been unable to capitalize, according to Pew. Despite a lot of buzz among those already approaching the election, the Democratic presidential field has not gained much stature, according to Pew.

"There are no signs that the public's unease over developments at home and abroad are providing the Democrats with much political momentum," Pew Director Andrew Kohut said.

According to two other respected pollsters, Democrat Celinda Lake and Republican Ed Goeas, several trends are already showing up about the 2004 elections:

The marriage gap. This is different from the gender gap that has appeared in elections since Ronald Reagan, with men tending to favor Republicans and women Democrats. George W. Bush closed that gap for his party in 2000, in part by appealing to suburban women on education issues. Bush still does well among this group of voters, although looming fights over abortion, gay rights and other issues could cause some to peel away from the GOP, Lake said. Republicans "are doing quite well now with suburban moms, but these women are pro-choice (on abortion) and don't want to get bogged down in the culture wars," Lake said.

The big gap next year may be between married voters and unmarried voters. Goeas said his polling shows that people who are married give Bush job-approval ratings about 15 percentage points higher than those who are single or divorced. The gap appears strongest among unmarried females, he said.

Education could be the issue here. Democrats have charged that Bush has shortchanged the No Child Left Behind Act. But Bush has gained a lot of political favor through his willingness to confront education as a national issue just a few years after his own GOP wanted to disband the federal Department of Education altogether.

Hispanic subgroups. Lake and Goeas both said that older Hispanics are more likely to approve of Bush than younger Hispanics, and that female Hispanics are among the Democrats' most loyal supporters. They stressed that the battle for Hispanic votes next year could hinge on turnout. If older Hispanics vote, that would aid Republicans.

But if younger female Hispanics vote, it could help Democrats in key states across the Sun Belt.

Chuck Raasch writes for Gannett News Service.

[madprof98]

Republicans "are doing quite well now with suburban moms, but these women are pro-choice (on abortion) and don't want to get bogged down in the culture wars," Lake said.

The big gap next year may be between married voters and unmarried voters. Goeas said his polling shows that people who are married give Bush job-approval ratings about 15 percentage points higher than those who are single or divorced. The gap appears strongest among unmarried females, he said.

I have my doubts about this characterization of the soccer moms. The women in my corner of suburbia are very strongly pro-family. They are clearly not willing to accept the liberal line on the culture wars because they don't want their children to live in the messed-up world the liberals have created. On the other hand, women who have given up on marriage and family life are likely to have a vested interest in legal abortion and the other "liberties" that accompany it.

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[quebecois]

"The gap appears strongest among unmarried females"

That is because a large slice of these gals have kids and expect the taxpayers to be daddy.